College Basketball Teams Likely to Break NCAA Tournament Droughts in 2016-17
There are more than 100 college basketball programs that would love to compete in the NCAA tournament for the first time in more than a decade, and teams like Monmouth, South Carolina and Rhode Island are poised to finally get over that hump next season.
Kansas (27 straight NCAA tournament appearances), Duke (21), Michigan State (19), Gonzaga (18) and Wisconsin (18) have made getting to the tournament in the 2000s look easy. However, the majority of the teams on this list haven't gone dancing since before people started freaking out about Y2K—if the school has ever been to the tournament, that is.
The only criterion for inclusion is zero tournament appearances in the past 10 years. Beyond that, it was just a matter of ranking the eligible teams based on a combination of returning or new talent and strength of conference opponents standing in their way.
Honorable Mentions
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Georgia Southern Eagles (Last Bid: 1992)
One of the only teams under consideration that had a losing record last year (14-17), the Eagles are loaded with young players (i.e. potential). Of the 12 players who logged at least 10 minutes in 2015-16, seven were freshmen and four were sophomores. And with Arkansas-Little Rock and Louisiana-Monroe each losing a ton of key players to graduation, Georgia Southern could ascend to the head of the Sun Belt class.
Illinois State Redbirds (Last Bid: 1998)
DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell is a big loss for the Redbirds. Roland Griffin and Nick Banyard transferring out of the program didn't help matters, either. But Evansville, Northern Iowa and Wichita State aren't in any better shape in the annual war of attrition. The Missouri Valley Conference is more wide open than any year in recent memory, and Paris Lee and company could take advantage of that.
Northern Illinois Huskies (Last Bid: 1996)
We have two other teams from the Mid-American in our top 10, but Northern Illinois has an outside shot as well. Led in points, rebounds and blocks by Marin Maric, the Huskies had one of the best defensive units in the conference. And with four freshmen who scored more than 150 points last season, there should be a fair amount of natural improvement on this roster with the added year of experience.
Elon Phoenix (Last Bid: Never)
Whether in the Big South, the Southern Conference or now the Colonial, Elon hasn't had any luck reaching the tournament since becoming a D-I program in 1999. Perhaps this is the year, though, as the Phoenix only lose one player from the primary seven-man rotation in which everyone averaged at least 8.6 points per game. Like Northern Illinois, though, Elon will need to compete with two other in-conference foes that are in our top 10.
10. Marshall Thundering Herd
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Last Tournament Appearance: 1987
2015-16 Record: 17-16
Back in the days of Steve Nash, Amar'e Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, the Phoenix Suns and Mike D'Antoni were known across the land for their "seven seconds or less" offense. Mike's brother, Dan, has brought a similar flair to the college game with Marshall, as the Thundering Herd ranked third in the nation in adjusted tempo while averaging 86.0 points per game under his watch in 2015-16.
Early on in the season, it looked like a horrible strategy. They lost each of their first six games by a margin of at least 10 points and entered C-USA conference play with a 4-9 record—going 0-9 against teams in the KenPom top 150.
Once they worked out the kinks, though, it was a successful ploy for the Thundering Herd. They went 13-7 in their final 20 games, and none of the losses came by a margin of more than nine points. Marshall averaged 91.7 points during those 20 games and shot 37.2 percent from beyond the arc while jacking up 30 three-point attempts per game.
Most of that gang is back for another year, but the leader isn't. James Kelly averaged 20.1 points and 9.8 rebounds per game and will be sorely missed as the team's primary frontcourt weapon. But the Thundering Herd still return five players who averaged at least 8.8 points per game, each of whom shot better than 32 percent from downtown.
If they keep shooting as well and as often as they did during the 2016 portion of last season, they could battle UAB for conference supremacy.
9. Toledo Rockets
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Last Tournament Appearance: 1980
2015-16 Record: 17-15
Since opening the 2013-14 season with a 12-0 record, Toledo has been getting consistently worse. Yet the Rockets managed to win more than 50 percent of their games last season after losing all three of their leading scorers from 2014-15, so perhaps they'll be able to stomach the loss of Nathan Boothe and Stuckey Mosley.
Boothe led the team in points, rebounds and blocks, while Mosley ranked first in assists and steals, so those won't be easy shoes to fill.
Steve Taylor Jr. could be the answer, though.
Back in 2012, Taylor was a top-100 recruit for Marquette, but the Golden Eagles never found room for him. Even after Buzz Williams and seemingly the entire roster left following the 2013-14 season, he lost his job as a starter less than two months into his junior year. But there were flashes of brilliance, like his 20-point game against Ohio State in November 2014 or his MVP performance in a February 2015 win over Seton Hall.
A change of scenery to a place where he'll have every opportunity to be the star might be the trick. Look for Taylor to lead the Rockets in rebounds while finishing second in scoring to Jonathan Williams on what should be one of the better rosters in the MAC.
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8. New Hampshire Wildcats
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Last Tournament Appearance: Never (D-I program since 1961)
2015-16 Record: 20-13
New Hampshire set a school record with 20 wins this past season. It was the Wildcats' second straight strong season following 19 consecutive years of sub-.500 play.
The next logical step in that journey is a long-awaited trip to the NCAA tournament.
They couldn't pick a much better year to make that leap, either. With Albany and Stony Brook each losing three starters to graduation, first place in the America East Conference has never been more up for grabs. Vermont might be the favorite, but New Hampshire can't be far behind, as it returns all four of its leading scorers and 10 of last year's 11 players.
Tanner Leissner and Jaleen Smith are the dynamic duo around whom everything revolves. They averaged a combined 29.3 points, 12.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game last season, leading the Wildcats to an 11-5 record in conference play and the best defensive rebounding rate in the country.
Can they turn things around on offense, though? At 33.3 percent beyond the arc and 45.9 percent inside it, New Hampshire had a dreadful field-goal percentage for a team that won 20 games. If even one member of the primary rotation has a bit of a breakout shooting year, the Wildcats could break a tournament drought of 55 years and counting.
7. Eastern Michigan Eagles
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Last Tournament Appearance: 1998
2015-16 Record: 18-15
Eastern Michigan keeps flirting with the tournament, but it can't seem to close the deal. The Eagles have won 61 games over the past three seasons but have nothing to show for it.
But they're intact from last season, with all four of their leading scorers returning, including double-double machine James Thompson IV. The freshman center averaged 14.8 points and 10.6 rebounds per game last season, tallying a total of 19 double-doubles in 33 games, including one against Louisville.
He just needs a running mate in the frontcourt, and Binghamton transfer Nick Madray could be that guy. The 6'9" stretch 4 averaged 10.8 points as a freshman before a hip injury cut short his campaign. He struggled a bit offensively the following season, and he only played 13 games before suffering an ankle injury.
If he can stay healthy, though, he'll be a key cog for the Eagles. Aside from Thompson, their leading scorers were 6'3" Raven Lee, 6'1" Willie Mangum IV and 6'2" Ty Toney. And with 6'8" Brandon Nazione graduating and 6'7" Jodan Price transferring, they need a new big body to put on the court.
If Madray can help fix a defensive rebounding rate that ranked 348th in the nation last season, it could be the boost Eastern Michigan needs to make a real impact in the MAC standings.
6. Towson Tigers
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Last Tournament Appearance: 1991
2015-16 Record: 20-13
If Byron Hawkins wasn't transferring, Towson would be a few spots higher on the list. Not only did Hawkins average 13.2 points last year for the Tigers, but he was also the only guard on the roster to average more than 10.0 minutes per game.
Perhaps Cincinnati transfer Deshaun Morman will be the answer to their problem.
The shooting guard redshirted the 2013-14 season before receiving just 10 minutes per game the following year. Tired of waiting for his turn at a school about eight hours from home, Morman transferred back to the DMV area, where he should shine in front of friends and family.
Any offense that he can bring to the program would be a welcome addition. Towson had a respectable adjusted offensive efficiency, but that's mostly because it ranked 10th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate and 11th in free-throw rate. As far as field-goal percentages go, the Tigers were awful. John Davis was the only player to shoot 33 percent or better from three-point range, and he only averaged 2.0 attempts per game.
Like Morman, Ge'Lawn Guyn averaged 10 minutes per game for his first two seasons at Cincinnati before finishing his college career averaging 18.5 points per game for East Tennessee State last season. Morman doesn't need to be quite that effective for Towson to have a realistic shot at the tournament, but he should be able to come close to it.
5. William & Mary Tribe
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Last Tournament Appearance: Never (D-I program since 1905)
2015-16 Record: 20-11
Along with Army, The Citadel, Northwestern and St. Francis (PA), William & Mary is one of the five schools that has missed every single NCAA tournament since its inception in 1939. Yet the Tribe keep showing up on this list because they have won 20 games in each of the past three seasons.
Per usual, they've got some holes to fill this offseason. Terry Tarpey led the team in rebounds, steals and blocks, but he and Sean Sheldon will both graduate, leaving William & Mary with a pair of frontcourt vacancies.
The Tribe still have Omar Prewitt, Daniel Dixon and David Cohn, though, which is a great starting point.
Prewitt averaged 17.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists last season and is arguably the best returning player in the Colonial Athletic Association. Cohn led the team in assists with 4.6 per game, and Dixon will be the team's primary three-point weapon once again.
If one of the younger bigs can step up his game in a bigger role, William & Mary might have a shot at finally making (or ending) history. 6'9" Jack Whitman averaged 3.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game in limited minutes as a sophomore, but he'll likely be W&M's starting center in 2016-17.
4. TCU Horned Frogs
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Last Tournament Appearance: 1998
2015-16 Record: 12-21
After five straight sub-.500 seasons, Texas Tech finally made the NCAA tournament this past season. The Red Raiders went 13-19 in 2014-15 but returned nearly everyone from that roster and improved considerably.
So, no, it's not insane to think that TCU could turn things around with a new head coach (Jamie Dixon) and all seven of last year's leading scorers back for another year.
Will said scorers be more efficient this time around, though?
Malique Trent is a great defensive weapon, but he shot 25.2 percent from three-point range while averaging more than four attempts per game. Chauncey Collins, JD Miller and Chris Washburn all shot worse than 40.0 percent from inside the arc. Just about the only reliable scorer on the roster was Vladimir Brodziansky, but he did the vast majority of his damage early in the season against TCU's annually feeble nonconference schedule.
Every member of the primary rotation showed glimpses of legitimate potential—just never for more than one or two games at a time. If Dixon can change the losing culture and get those guys to tap into their abilities on a more regular basis, the Horned Frogs might win enough games to sneak into the field in what will likely be a down year for Big 12 teams not named Kansas.
3. Monmouth Hawks
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Last Tournament Appearance: 2006
2015-16 Record: 28-8
Monmouth is probably the best team on this list. Everyone other than Deon Jones is back, which means one more year of watching Justin Robinson, Micah Seaborn and Je'lon Hornbeak put up big numbers along the perimeter.
However, we learned in frustrating fashion last season that Monmouth is all but mandated to win the MAAC tournament in order to reach the NCAA tournament, and it's hard to award the first or second spot on this list to a team with little chance of an at-large bid.
The good news for the Hawks is that Iona's A.J. English is finally gone. The Gaels also lose Isaiah Williams, Aaron Rountree and Ibn Muhammad, so even though they're adding Fordham transfer Jon Severe and Connecticut transfer Sam Cassell Jr., they've got a lot of work to do to keep pace with Monmouth.
The bad news is Siena and Saint Peter's both bring back all five of their leading scorers from teams that won a combined 25 MAAC games last season.
Even though Monmouth will enter the season as the clear favorite to win the conference, there will still be quite a few realistic stumbling blocks in the way.
2. South Carolina Gamecocks
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Last Tournament Appearance: 2004
2015-16 Record: 25-9
Aside from the gaggle of minor conference teams like Monmouth, Saint Mary's and Valparaiso, South Carolina was one of the biggest snubs of the 2016 NCAA tournament. Weak scheduling did not help their cause, but it's hard to believe the Gamecocks won their first 15 games before missing the dance. That's almost unfathomable for a major conference program.
Perhaps they can turn those sour grapes into motivation for next year.
They'll need to withstand a lot of attrition to make it happen.
Between Michael Carrera, Mindaugas Kacinas and Laimonas Chatkevicius, head coach Frank Martin is losing his entire starting frontcourt with little more than an incoming 4-star power forward (Sedee Keita) to help plug those holes.
What they really need is for last year's 5-star recruit (PJ Dozier) to finally make an impact. Dozier shot 38.1 percent from the field, 21.3 percent from the three-point line and 54.4 percent from the free-throw line. He led the team in total turnovers despite playing just 19.0 minutes per game. For a highly rated recruit who didn't have injury or academic issues, it was just about the worst season imaginable.
But if Dozier can turn things around in his sophomore season while Keita makes somewhat of an impact as a freshman and Chris Silva has a breakout season in the frontcourt, South Carolina could be the second-best team in the SEC.
1. Rhode Island Rams
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Last Tournament Appearance: 1999
2015-16 Record: 17-15
Truth be told, Rhode Island is the only team on the list that feels like a sure thing to still be in the projected bracket picture during Championship Week 2017.
Of course, we thought last summer that Rhode Island was destined for big things, right up until E.C. Matthews lasted 10 minutes before suffering a season-ending knee injury. It's a minor miracle that the Rams were able to win 17 games without the preseason candidate for A-10 Player of the Year while also playing six games without frontcourt stud Hassan Martin.
But it also might have been a blessing in disguise. The big question for Rhode Island heading into the season was how Jared Terrell and Jarvis Garrett would do in the backcourt after both posted inefficient numbers as freshmen in 2014-15. Both guards had excellent sophomore seasons and should play a fantastic second and third fiddle to Matthews this year.
The Rams will also be adding Indiana transfer Stanford Robinson to the mix. The former 4-star recruit will likely take over Earl Watson's job as the sixth man, adding a much-needed quality and veteran presence off the bench.
The A-10 is loaded with talented teams this season and could realistically be a five- or six-bid league. Rhode Island might not win the conference, but it should come close en route to its first NCAA tournament appearance in nearly two decades.
All stats courtesy of KenPom.com unless attributed otherwise.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @kerrancejames.
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