Green Bay Packers Mock Draft Roundup: What the Experts Are Saying

For the Green Bay Packers, the first round of the 2016 NFL draft is coming down to one predominant question: Defensive tackle or inside linebacker?

While there are some analysts who think general manager Ted Thompson could go in another direction with his first pick of the draft, such as tight end Hunter Henry, the vast majority of Packers mock drafts see them selecting from a talented group of defensive linemen or one particular inside linebacker: top prospect Reggie Ragland.

Thompson hasn't selected an offensive player in the first round since he drafted tackle Derek Sherrod in 2011, and his pattern of targeting defensive players on day one looks likely to continue in 2016.

As draft week gets underway, here's a final look at what the experts are saying ahead of Green Bay's first pick at No. 27 overall.

Todd McShay, ESPN.com: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor

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If the Packers want to replace nose tackle B.J. Raji this offseason, Baylor's Andrew Billings could be their best bet.

ESPN.com's Todd McShay is one of many experts making that argument.

McShay thinks Billings fills the Packers' most obvious need this offseason: "Billings has an outstanding combination of quickness, athleticism and power, which helps him wreak havoc on the interior."

With so many defensive tackles projected to come off the board in Round 1 this year, what makes Billings the pick?

Billings fits with the Packers in part because he is powerful but not enormous. Measuring 6'1" and 311 pounds, Billings is trimmer than some of his fellow linemen. Vernon Butler is 6'4" and 323 pounds, while Kenny Clark is 6'3" and 314 pounds.

And good luck blocking the Baylor prospect, who led the Bears in tackles for loss and sacks. He was a top performer in the bench press at the NFL Scouting Combine, benching 31 reps.

Billings fits with the Packers' recent moves to get smaller and faster on the defensive line while still possessing the size and strength necessary to anchor.

Lance Zierlein, NFL.com: TE Hunter Henry, Arkansas

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Ted Thompson hasn't taken an offensive player in the first round of the draft since 2011, when he selected tackle Derek Sherrod.

Moreover, in Thompson's tenure with the Packers, he's never taken a pass-catcher with a first-round selection.

However, many analysts think the Packers will look to upgrade their offensive weapon stable with the 27th pick—NFL.com's Lance Zierlein included.

"Henry is a combination tight end with outstanding hands and the ability to help out as an in-line blocker or as a go-to target on third downs," wrote Zierlein.

"There are very few true tight ends in this class and Green Bay grabs the top tight end."

The Packers' third-round selection in 2014, Richard Rodgers, is developing nicely, improving in his blocking as he becomes more seasoned. He's also become a nice red-zone target for Aaron Rodgers.

However, the Packers have a clear need for a big target in the seam, and many of their offensive breakdowns in 2015 occurred because Rodgers didn't have an open, reliable target on short-to-intermediate plays.

Henry is the best tight end in the draft, and while Thompson doesn't usually take offensive players on day one, if he's available at No. 27, he might be hard to pass up. He would likely have to be rated higher on Thompson's board than any of the remaining defensive line prospects.

Will Brinson, CBSSports.com: DT Sheldon Rankins, Louisville

Another mock draft, another defensive tackle projected to go to the Packers. This time, it's Louisville's Sheldon Rankins.

"Smallish in size but explosive as all get out, Rankins has a little bit of [an] Aaron Donald factor going here (poor man's version) and could be nice value for Ted Thompson this late," wrote Will Brinson of CBSSports.com.

In fact, CBSSports.com ranks Rankins as the No. 1 defensive tackle prospect in this year's class (14th-best prospect overall). In that scenario, he would be a tremendous value for Thompson at No. 27—perhaps impossible to pass up.

It all depends on how closely the Packers' big board matches the analysts'.

In a sea of 300-pounders, it's somewhat surprising to see a number beginning with "2" next to Rankins' name. CBSSports.com lists him at 6'1" and 299 pounds.

Does he have the size and power to anchor a 3-4 defensive line? He may actually project better as a 3-technique in a four-man front, but Thompson is no stranger to converting prospects to fit Dom Capers' scheme.

In any case, Rankins would have to make it past the New Orleans Saints at No. 12, where the vast majority of experts project him to go.

Chad Reuter, NFL.com: DT Chris Jones, Mississippi State

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In yet another defensive tackle selection, NFL.com analyst Chad Reuter sees the Packers once again valuing versatility on the line. 

"Jones is versatile enough to play inside or outside in the Packers' scheme," Reuter wrote.

"He should be an effective part of the team's rotation up front immediately, which Dom Capers needs due to the departure of nose tackle B.J. Raji."

What does Jones bring to the landscape at defensive tackle?

The 6'6", 310-pound big man started every game at Mississippi State in 2015, making 44 tackles (7.5 for loss) and 2.5 sacks.

Playing with tremendous power, Jones would offer a big run-stopping presence on the Packers' line, with his ability to control gaps and stuff blockers.

If Jones is the best option on the board, he could be a nice addition to the front seven, but given questions about his motor the Packers could likely do better in Round 1. 

Matt Miller, Bleacher Report: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

If any one player shows up over and over in Packers mock drafts, it's Alabama defensive tackle Jarran Reed.

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller is one such analyst who sees the Packers filling their B.J. Raji-shaped hole with the Crimson Tide prospect.

"B.J. Raji is out, and Reed is in. A mammoth run defender, Reed shows remarkable movement skills for a 307-pounder," Miller opined in his latest mock draft.

Reed's decision to return to Alabama after a strong junior season paid off in 2015. He earned second-team All-SEC honors by the Associated Press after totaling 57 tackles, one sack, two pass breakups, eight quarterback hurries and a fumble recovery in 14 starts.

Though it seems as if you could close your eyes, point your finger, spin around and land on an Alabama defensive prospect in this year's class, Reed was the leader of that championship defense last season.

And given that the powerful, punishing defender is versatile enough to line up almost anywhere in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, there's no question he's at or near the top of Ted Thompson's board.

In fact, the only question about Reed is whether he will be available at No. 27.

Chris Burke, SI.com: DT Vernon Butler, Louisiana Tech

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

While most analysts prognosticating a defensive tackle to the Packers are doing so with the express purpose of replacing big man B.J. Raji, SI.com's Chris Burke takes a different approach.

"The Packers do not necessarily have to replace B.J. Raji in a one-for-one way," Burke wrote.

"They do need to find more assistance for Mike Daniels up front. [Vernon] Butler can plug the middle or slide out to [3- or 5-technique]."

Burke has a point. Letroy Guion can anchor the line—he may need to, given that defensive tackle Mike Pennel will be suspended for the first four games of the season.

Aside from his suspension, Pennel has proved to be a talented and promising study at the nose.

But Daniels doesn't have a lot of help up front, nor does he have an obvious heir apparent behind him.

Now, the Packers rarely play three linemen in a true 3-4 defense, operating most often out of sub-packages. But if Butler is the best player available on Ted Thompson's board at No. 27, his versatility and size would make him a valuable addition to Green Bay's front seven.

Mel Kiper, ESPN: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama

For all the analysts who see the Packers taking a defensive lineman in the first round, there are hardly any who still project inside linebacker Reggie Ragland as being the pick at No. 27.

It's not clear whether that's because analysts don't think the draft's top inside linebacker prospect will fall that far or the Packers just aren't interested.

But the hole on defense that Ragland would plug for the Packers is obvious.

"The addition of Ragland takes pressure off Clay Matthews," ESPN's Mel Kiper said in a recent live mock draft with Todd McShay. "Now the Pack have a starting inside linebacker who can let Matthews rush the passer. This is a pick that makes the defense more dangerous."

Now, that selection comes with a caveat: Kiper and McShay alternated picks and selected the player left on the board they would pick. It doesn't necessarily mean Kiper thinks Ragland will be available.

However, if Ragland is still on the board for the Packers—that's a plausible scenario, especially given that the trades likely for QBs at the top of the draft pushed defensive players down—taking him would be a no-brainer.

As Kiper points out, Ragland would allow the Packers to move Matthews back outside, and he can defend the run in the middle.

Upgrading the defensive line in the first draft is fine, but the Packers may find that they'll continue to struggle against the run if they don't plug in a starting-caliber inside 'backer this year.