Dark Horse Player of the Year Candidates in Each Major CBB Conference in 2016-17

One of the few certainties in college basketball is that some teams and some players will demonstrate surprising improvement from the previous year. It is what makes college hoops appealing and unpredictable. Those unexpected accomplishments are easy to laud after the fact, but difficult to predict six months in advance.

Which players will emerge from anonymity to become stars? Who are the dark horses for player of the year honors in the nine major conferences?

The question is complicated by the fact that standout players who submitted their names for early entry into the NBA draft can withdraw their names before May 25 if they have not hired an agent.

Presumably, a player of the year must play for a team that finishes high in the standings.  However, the team does not need to finish first. Kentucky's Tyler Ulis was the only one of this year's nine major-conference players of the year that played for a team that finished first, and the Wildcats tied for the top spot with Texas A&M. Two of those nine were on teams that did not even finish in the top three. 

In any case, dark-horse winners are rare, as players of the year seldom come out of nowhere. All nine of this season's players of the year had been preseason first-team all-conference picks and six of them were preseason player of the year selections.

Nonetheless, we trudge on, because unanticipated stardom piques interest and provokes discussion. We provide possible dark-horse 2016-17 players of the year for the Big Ten, Pac-12, Atlantic Coast Conference, Big East, Atlantic 10, Southeastern Conference, Big 12, American Athletic Conference, and Mountain West Conference. Maybe one or two will provide a major surprise next season.

Big Ten: Ethan Happ, Wisconsin

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2015-16 Statistics: 12.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.8 spg

Ethan Happ improved significantly over the course of the 2015-16 season as a redshirt freshman. He was named the Big Ten freshman of the year and played his best basketball during the NCAA tournament, leading the team in both scoring (15.7 points per game) and rebounding (9.3) in the three postseason games. He also led the Big Ten in steals with 63.

Wisconsin big men have a habit of improving over the course of their careers, and there is every reason to believe the 6'9" Happ will continue to get better as a third-year sophomore. Frank Kaminsky averaged just 1.8 points and 4.2 points in his first two college seasons before becoming a star as a junior and senior. Nigel Hayes is on a similar path, averaging 7.7 points as a freshman and improving that to 15.7 this season as a junior, when he was a first-team all-conference selection.

If Hayes withdraws from the NBA Draft and returns to Wisconsin, the Badgers should contend for the Big Ten title next season. That will open the door for one of Wisconsin's players to be named conference player of the year. Hayes and guard Bronson Koenig, the hero of the Badgers' postseason victory over Xavier, will enter the 2016-17 season as the Badgers' presumed stars, but Happ may be the player with the most potential.

Happ's emergence as the team's centerpiece may not occur until the 2017-18 season, but if Happ progresses at an accelerated rate, he could become the Badgers' go-to player. His all-around skills might be seen as the reason for Wisconsin's success.

Pac-12: Bryce Alford, UCLA

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2015-16 statistics: 16.1 ppg, 5.2 apg, 36.7 3-pt %

Granted, picking Bryce Alford as a dark horse to win the Pac-12 player of the year award ignores logic. Alford was not among the 15 players named to the Pac-12's first- or second-team all-conference squads this season, so he has not done much to impress observers yet. 

In addition, Oregon and Arizona will probably be the preseason Pac-12 favorites, making Oregon's Dillon Brooks or Arizona's Allonzo Trier better player of the year candidates. Ivan Rabb of California, a projected NBA lottery pick who opted to return to school for his sophomore season, is another possibility.

UCLA finished a disappointing 10th in the conference this season and lost its final five games. Alford, the team's point guard, was viewed as one of the team's shortcomings. None of this suggests Alford will emerge as a star as a senior.

But hear me out. With most of their keys players back and the addition of an outstanding recruiting class, the Bruins could make a dramatic improvement, perhaps enough to contend for the Pac-12 title. Their most highly touted incoming freshman is Lorenzo Ball, ranked as the nation's No. 5 recruit by ESPN.com. Presumably, he will take over as the team's point guard, moving Alford to the shooting guard position. That might allow Alford to showcase his skills better, making him a scorer rather than a distributor and floor leader. If the Bruins finish near the top of the Pac-12 standings, Alford's contributions might be seen as the reason.

This scenario might also aid UCLA guard Isaac Hamilton, a second-team all-conference selection and another dark horse player of the year candidate, but Alford appears to be the player who can benefit most. Despite his faults, Alford has a flair for the dramatic, with his game-winning shot against Arizona being the best example.

It is true that a lot of things would have to fall into place for Alford to have any chance to earn Pac-12 player of the year honors, but that's why he is called a dark horse.

Atlantic Coast Conference: London Perrantes, Virginia

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2015-16 statistics: 11.0 ppg, 4.4 apg, 48.8 3-pt %

Any one of three Duke players—junior Grayson Allen and incoming freshmen Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum—are logical preseason choices for Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year, partly because the Blue Devils may be the best team in the country.

However, two players who received little postseason acclaim this season could sneak in to steal the prize if breaks go their way.

One is Virginia Tech's Zach LeDay, a true outsider in next season's ACC player of the year race, which makes him particularly intriguing. The Hokies finished a surprising seventh in the ACC with a 10-8 conference record, and with every key player returning, they could become a title contender in 2016-17. For that to happen, LeDay would need a big season, which is not out of the question considering he averaged a team-high 15.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.7 blocks this season.

A more likely dark-horse candidate, however, is Virginia point guard London Perrantes. He got everyone's attention when he scored 18 points and hit six three-pointers in the Cavaliers' loss to Syracuse in the NCAA tournament Elite Eight. He has been the Cavaliers' starting point guard each of his first three seasons at Virginia, and led the ACC in three-point percentage this season. Yet he has never been named to the ACC's first-, second-, or third-team all conference squads.

With Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill gone from this season's Virginia team, Perrantes must take on a bigger role next season, which should illuminate his star qualities and his importance to the Cavaliers' success. More significant is the fact that coach Tony Bennett has shown he can turn a team with average talent into an ACC title contender. Despite losing their two best players, the Cavaliers might finish near the top of the ACC standings again on the strength of the Bennett system.

If Virginia finishes among the top two or three teams next season, which seems possible, the man controlling the team from the point guard position could reap the accolades.

Big East: Jalen Brunson, Villanova

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2015-16 statistics: 9.6 ppg, 2.5 apg, 38.3 3-pt %

Despite the loss of Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu, Villanova is expected to have another big season in 2016-17, based on the early preseason top-25 rankings provided by SI.com and ESPN.com. The Wildcats may challenge for a second straight national championship and are probably the favorite to capture the Big East title again.

That puts a Villanova player in prime position to become Big East player of the year now that Providence's Kris Dunn has departed.

Villanova's Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins as well as Seton Hall's Isaiah Whitehead and Xavier's Trevon Blueitt probably will be the preseason favorites for Big East player-of-the-year honors, assuming they all return to school. However, things may line up nicely for Jalen Brunson to emerge from the pack.

In his freshman season, Brunson shared the point-guard duties with senior Arcidiacono, and Arcidiacono took over the playmaking chores in tight situations at the end of games. Next season Brunson will assume the floor-leadership role, and Villanova's success will depend on Brunson's ability to organize and direct the Wildcats' attack.

Brunson averaged just 9.6 points this past season, but he may not need to increase his scoring dramatically if he is seen as the driving force behind Villanova's success. Arcidiacono proved in 2014-15 that point guards don't need gaudy numbers to be named player of the year. He averaged just 10.1 points and 3.6 assists when he shared Big East player of the year honors with Dunn that season. Brunson could make a similar impact and receive similar acclaim next season.

Atlantic 10: Scoochie Smith, Dayton

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2015-16 statistics: 11.7 ppg, 4.3 apg, 382. 3-pt %

Forward Charles Cooke, Dayton's only first-team all-conference selection this past season, will be among the favorites to capture Atlantic 10 player of the year honors if he pulls out of the NBA draft and returns to the Flyers roster next season. His decision will have a significant impact on whether Dayton can win the Atlantic 10 title next season after tying for the top spot this year.

However, lurking in the background, ready to emerge from Cooke's shadow, is point guard Scoochie Smith. As was noted in the case for Villanova's Jalen Brunson, point guards do not need eye-popping statistics to gain acclaim. Smith was not named to the Atlantic 10's first-, second- or third-team all-conference squads this season, so he is maintaining a position under the radar. But his steady improvement year by year plus the importance of the position he plays could push him to the forefront in terms of media recognition next season.

Smith will be in his third year as the Flyers' starting point guard in 2016-17, improving from 3.6 points and 2.0 assists as a freshman reserve to 9.2 points and 3.6 assists as a sophomore to 11.7 points and 4.3 assists this season as a junior. His three-point shooting has improved each season as well. With the void left by senior Dyshawn Pierre's departure, Smith's numbers are likely to rise again as a senior.

Accolades for Smith will depend on the Flyers contending for the Atlantic 10 title, but they seem very capable of winning the regular-season title with the talent available, especially if Cooke returns. As the team's point guard, Smith may get the credit.

Southeastern Conference: Tyler Davis, Texas A&M

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2015-16 statistics: 11.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.14 bpg

The Southeastern Conference has been wiped clean of its star players, either through graduation or entry into the NBA Draft. It leaves the race for player of the year wide open. Arkansas' Moses Kingsley might be the preseason player of the year favorite, but for him to win it he would have to withdraw his name from the NBA draft and the Razorbacks would have to finish higher than expected in the Southeastern Conference.

It leaves room for a dark-horse candidate like Texas A&M big man Tyler Davis. As a freshman starter on a team that tied for the SEC regular-season championship, Davis was the team's No. 3 scorer and No. 2 rebounder. He was the Aggies' best player in their final game of the season, a third-round NCAA tournament loss to Oklahoma, when he collected 17 points on 7-of-8 shooting to go along with eight rebounds and three blocks.

His numbers should improve next season, almost by necessity, since he will be the Aggies' only returning starter. Look for the 6'9" Davis to emerge as one of the best big men in the country next season. The question, however, is whether the Aggies will be good enough to warrant player of the year consideration for Davis. ESPN.com ranks Texas A&M No. 19 in its early preseason top 25 for next season, and that's good enough for us. Davis is our dark horse.

Big 12: Devonte' Graham, Kansas

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2015-16 statistics: 11.3 points, 3.7 apg, 44.1 3-pt %

You would think, given Kansas' success over the past dozen years, that Jayhawks players would dominate the conference player of the year list. Not so. Although the Jayhawks have won or shared the regular-season conference title 12 years in a row, only three Kansas players were named player of the year in that span.

Bill Self's selfless brand of basketball builds winners but not bloated individual statistics. On the other hand, Kansas' unparalleled Big 12 success puts one or two of its players in the player of the year discussion every year, even if they don't have the numbers to win it. A Kansas player that may join the discussion next season is guard Devonte' Graham.

All five of this year's first-team all-Big 12 selections are gone, leaving the 2017 player of the year competition without a clear front-runner. Graham's backcourt mate, Frank Mason III, and Iowa State point guard Monte Morris might be the preseason favorites for the honor, although the Cyclones may have lost too much talent to be title contenders. That leaves Mason, who was a second-team all-conference selection last season while Graham failed to make any of the three all-Big 12 squads.

Graham's numbers were similar to those of Mason, who had 1.6 more points per game and 0.9 more assists than Graham. Both were members of the Big 12 all-defensive team, and Graham was the better perimeter shooter, ranking third in the Big 12 at 44.1 percent on three-pointers. 

With Wayne Selden Jr. and Perry Ellis gone, Graham will be asked to increase his production next season in his second year as a starter. Graham has already demonstrated that he plays his best in big games, collecting 27 and 22 points in the wins over Oklahoma, 27 points in the victory over West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament finals and 17 points and seven rebounds in the NCAA Elite Eight loss to Villanova.

Because Kansas is always a title contender, Graham could sneak into the discussion for Big 12 player of the year.

American Athletic Conference: Rodney Purvis, Connecticut

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2015-16 statistics: 12.8 ppg, 2.1 apg, 38.5 3-pt %

Obviously we believe Rodney Purvis will make the smart move and withdraw from the NBA draft so he can return for his senior season at Connecticut. We are not so sure about Daniel Hamilton, who would be the Huskies' best player next season but might stay in the draft and test his luck as a pro.

If Hamilton does return to UConn, the Huskies will be a contender for the American Athletic Conference crown, and Hamilton would be near the top of the list for player of the year consideration. Cincinnati guard Troy Caupain looks like Hamilton's chief competition for 2017 AAC player of the year at the moment, with Purvis in the background.

If Purvis continues to produce like he did late in the season and UConn lives up to ESPN.com's preseason billing as a top-25 team, he could make a surprising run at the AAC's top individual award next season. Purvis was the Huskies' leading scorer this past season, although with the top four scorers all averaging between 12.3 points and 12.8 points, that is not much of a distinction.

What is more significant is that Purvis scored 19 points in the Huskies' NCAA tournament first-round win over Colorado and 17 in their second-round loss to Kansas.

His career is on the upswing. Next season Purvis will be a fifth-year senior in his third year as a starter at UConn. Purvis was also a starter for most of his freshman season at North Carolina State, and his scoring has increased each season. Purvis did not even earn honorable mention all-conference recognition this past season, but he could be ready for a breakout year in 2016-17.

Mountain West Conference: Jeremy Hemsley, San Diego State

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2015-16 statistics: 12.0 ppg, 1.8 apg, 35.6 3-pt %

Jeremy Hemsley is not San Diego State's top returning player for next season. That honor belongs to Trey Kell, a first-team all-conference selection this season as a sophomore. Hemsley was not even a starter at the end of the 2015-16 season, and his production slipped in the last few weeks.  He averaged 7.0 points on 27.7 percent shooting over the last six games, dropping his overall scoring average to 12.0.

Hemsley will not be the favorite for Mountain West player of the year after that finish. However, he remains a dark-horse candidate for a few reasons. 

First of all, he was the Mountain West freshman of the year, and the key word there is "freshman." Like many first-year players, his production faded late in the season as the wear and tear of the college season affected his game. Hemsley will be more familiar with the rigors and requirements of college basketball in his second season, and his performance should improve accordingly.

Second, next year's player of the year race in the Mountain West Conference opened up when Boise State's James Webb III declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent. Kell and New Mexico's Elijah Brown may be the preseason favorites for that award, and that assumes Brown withdraws from the NBA draft and returns to school. In any case, there is room for an unexpected contender.

Third, San Diego State always contends for the conference title, which puts any of the Aztecs' top players in the discussion for player of the year. The Aztecs will lose a lot of talent from the squad that captured the Mountain West regular-season title by three games this past season, but as long as Steve Fisher is the coach, they have a chance. San Diego State won or shared the regular-season conference title five of the past six seasons and has not finished worse than fourth in any of the past 11 seasons. Furthermore, two of the past five Mountain West players of the year played for San Diego State.

Hemsley may be rewarded if he improves as much as many players do between their freshman and sophomore seasons.