1 Player Each Top College Basketball Contender Needs to Step Up in 2016-17
When evaluating college basketball teams and their chances of contending for a national title, there tends to be a standard formula: Combine returning stars with top newcomers, making sure to factor in the key players who have moved on, and you'll know where things stand.
But just as important to the equation are the other returning players—those who either didn't get much of an opportunity to contribute last season or struggled when given the chance. Their times to shine are coming, though, and whether they can come through will have a major impact on their schools' shots to contend.
Look at the teams that just played for the NCAA title. Villanova's Kris Jenkins and North Carolina's Joel Berry made huge jumps from the 2014-15 season, and each was integral on the road to the national championship game.
Who might be in line to do the same in 2016-17? We've identified a player on each of the 20 top contenders—based on Odds Shark's early 2017 national title odds—who needs to become more involved and more reliable this coming season. We're only including players who were active for their current teams in 2015-16, so no freshmen or transfers are on this list, nor is anyone who is testing the waters for the NBA draft.
Arizona Wildcats: Dusan Ristic
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2015-16 stats: 7.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 55.0% FG, 16.5 MPG
Arizona was one of the top rebounding teams in the country last season thanks to the presence of seniors Ryan Anderson and Kaleb Tarczewski. They've both graduated, as has forward Mark Tollefsen, which leaves Dusan Ristic as the only notable post player left from 2015-16.
Ristic was an effective offensive player in spurts as a sophomore. He showed off a solid hook shot and some decent interior moves, but the 7-footer didn't show much in terms of strength or poise on the defensive end. His rebounding percentages trailed freshman Chance Comanche, who's two inches shorter than Ristic and weighs 35 pounds less.
Arizona figures to be guard-oriented in 2016-17, with sophomore Allonzo Trier and senior Kadeem Allen joined by a trio of big-name freshmen (Rawle Alkins, Terrance Ferguson and Kobi Simmons) on the perimeter, so the inside game won't be as prominent. It still has to contribute on the boards, though, which is where Ristic must show the most improvement heading into next season.
Baylor Bears: Ishmail Wainright
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2015-16 stats: 5.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, 42.7% FG, 40.6% 3PT, 24.7 MPG
A seldom-used reserve for most of his first two seasons, Ishmail Wainright became a full-time starter last year but was still seventh on the team in scoring. Baylor will need a lot more out of him on the offensive end in his senior year while also having him maintain his defensive intensity.
The 6'5" wing scored in double figures just six times in 2015-16, with his career best of 14 coming in December. He only took five shots per game and made 44.1 percent of his two-pointers, most of which were jumpers.
Wainright must become more aggressive and take his game toward the rim, but that will require added strength to make up for being undersized at the 3.
Connecticut Huskies: Jalen Adams
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2015-16 stats: 7.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 42.4% FG, 27.3% 3PT, 23.3 MPG
Leading scorer Rodney Purvis has entered the draft but can return, while No. 2 scorer and top assist man Daniel Hamilton has signed with an agent and is gone. So, too, are Connecticut's third- and fourth-leading scorers—seniors Shonn Miller and Sterling Gibbs. All that's left is Jalen Adams, who can only go up from an uneven freshman year.
"The Jalen Adams Era in UConn will truly begin next season," ESPN's Jeff Goodman tweeted after Hamilton turned pro.
The 6'3” guard had more games with five or fewer points (13) than 10 or more (11). His full-court three-pointer that forced a fourth overtime against Cincinnati in the AAC tournament—during a career-high 22-point performance—was followed up by a 3-of-9 effort against Temple, though he had eight assists in that game.
Adams will likely get to focus on scoring and leave the distribution to incoming freshman Alterique Gilbert, a 4-star prospect who is only 5'10”.
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Duke Blue Devils: Luke Kennard
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2015-16 stats: 11.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.5 APG, 42.0% FG, 31.8% 3PT, 26.7 MPG
The highest-scoring player on our list, Luke Kennard gets the nod among Duke's returners despite what was a fairly strong freshman year. He's got room to improve, though, and he will need to in order to avoid getting pushed down what will be a much deeper rotation in 2016-17.
Kennard was in and out of the starting lineup last season, but that was almost by default, as the Blue Devils rarely went past the sixth man. They lose three of those top six—Brandon Ingram turned pro, Marshall Plumlee graduated and Derryck Thornton transferred—but add five via the nation's No. 2 recruiting class, and three of those guys (forwards Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum, point guard Frank Jackson) are pegged as starters.
Jackson's presence will keep Kennard from having to log minutes at the 1 while leading scorer Grayson Allen is locked in at the 2. Kennard could start as a third guard if Duke wants to go small, but he'll also have to contend with senior Matt Jones at that spot.
Kennard seems destined for a bench role as a sophomore, which means when he does get into the game, it will be to spell someone else. For those minutes to be productive, he'll need to improve his shot selection, as last year he was last among Duke's three-point shooters.
Gonzaga Bulldogs: Josh Perkins
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2015-16 stats: 10.1 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 43.3% FG, 37.8% 3PT, 30.8 MPG
Gonzaga had one of the most productive frontcourt duos last year in Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, yet its season was teetering on the brink until the backcourt started to gel. Josh Perkins' improvement was noticeable over time, but in the end, the 6'3” guard's shortcomings as a ball-handler and floor leader led to many blown leads.
"His play was sloppy at best and infuriating at worst," Peter Woodburn of SB Nation wrote. "Every time he seemed to be taking a step in the right direction, he would take two steps backwards."
Perkins' turnover rate was 17.9 percent, which was worst among Gonzaga's regulars and led to a negative turnover margin that ranked 268th out of 351 Division I programs.
What should help Perkins next season is having Nigel Williams-Goss playing alongside him. The former Washington guard, who sat out last year per NCAA rules, was the Huskies' leading scorer and assist man in 2014-15. Perkins will be able to focus on running the offense instead of creating it.
Indiana Hoosiers: OG Anunoby
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2015-16 stats: 4.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 56.9% FG, 44.8% 3PT, 13.7 MPG
OG Anunoby didn't get on the court often as a freshman, but when he did, it was hard not to notice him. The 6'8”, 215-pound forward didn't light up the scoreboard, but his hard-nosed play on both ends of the court was integral to Indiana winning the Big Ten regular-season title and making the Sweet 16.
"He’s an athletic freak who was just beginning to tap into his potential last season," Thomas Beindit of TodaysU.com wrote.
Now it will be a matter of making that translate into more than just hustle, grit and a few highlight-reel plays.
With forward Troy Williams among two Hoosiers who are going through the draft process, improved play from Anunoby might be more of a necessity than a desire. He could be in line to take Williams' spot if he doesn't return, where his ability to score from all over (he was 13-of-29 on three-pointers) would make for a valuable weapon if it can happen on a full-time basis.
Kansas Jayhawks: Carlton Bragg Jr.
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2015-16 stats: 3.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 56.1% FG, 8.9 MPG
By landing No. 1 overall prospect Josh Jackson, Kansas ensures it will have a dynamic playmaker for next season to replace leading scorers Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden Jr. Combined with the return of veteran guards Devonte' Graham and Frank Mason III, the Jayhawks are poised to run their amazing Big 12 title streak to 13 years.
But there's still the frontcourt issue to deal with—one that saw head coach Bill Self try out six different players before ultimately settling on 6'10” Landen Lucas. Lucas figures to be the front-runner for the center spot in 2016-17, with 6'11”, 265-pound freshman Udoka Azubuike as his backup, which will allow Carlton Bragg Jr. to fit in at the 4 if he can build off a promising (but limited) freshman year.
The 6'9”, 220-pound Bragg was part of an overloaded frontcourt rotation, and when the postseason came around, his time was even more limited. That wasn't because he struggled—other than picking up what amounted to 7.2 fouls per 40 minutes—but more because the opportunities weren't there.
Now they are, and the Jayhawks will need him to be more involved. If he can make the kind of second-year jump that Ellis did, going from 5.8 points and 3.9 rebounds to 13.5 points and 6.7 rebounds, Kansas will be in great shape up front.
Kentucky Wildcats: Isaac Humphries
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2015-16 stats: 1.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 39.0% FG, 9.1 MPG
Kentucky's assembly line-like approach to roster management made it difficult to pick a returning player whose improvement is needed next year, especially with so many from this last team either turning pro, graduating or still going through the draft process. Truth be told, most of the key Wildcats in 2016-17 are going to be ones who don't join the program until this summer.
Isaac Humphries might not play much more as a sophomore than he did in his first year, seeing as Kentucky has three well-regarded post players among its five 2016 signees. But that doesn't mean the Wildcats couldn't benefit from having Humphries make more of his minutes since he'll be the lone 7-footer.
His lasting contribution from this past season was the ill-timed technical he got at the end of an overtime loss at Texas A&M—a game in which he also had a career-high 12 rebounds in 20 minutes. He won't be asked to score much with all the weapons Kentucky will have at its disposal, but he can still be an asset as a defensive specialist and an offensive rebounder.
Louisville Cardinals: Deng Adel
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2015-16 stats: 4.0 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 45.6% FG, 12.1 MPG
Not participating in the postseason was a devastating blow for Louisville seniors Damion Lee and Trey Lewis, who ended their careers without an NCAA tournament appearance. It also prevented the Cardinals' promising young players from being able to grow through the experience of those pressure-filled extra games.
That means Deng Adel will enter his sophomore year with only 22 games and eight starts under his belt, including the last five games of 2015-16. Louisville saw his promise in consecutive February wins over Duke and Pittsburgh, as he averaged 12 points and six rebounds while shooting 71.4 percent.
The 6'7” Adel has amazing upside and figures to take Lee's role at the wing if he can hold off 4-star prospect V.J. King.
Miami (Florida) Hurricanes: Ja'Quan Newton
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2015-16 stats: 10.5 PPG, 2.5 APG, 2.3 RPG, 46.1% FG, 22.7 MPG
Ja'Quan Newton finished runner-up behind North Carolina's Isaiah Hicks for the ACC's Sixth Man of the Year Award last season. As a sophomore, Newton was Miami's fourth-leading scorer and second in assists—a nice fill-in (and often complement to) Angel Rodriguez in the backcourt.
But despite a strong boost in production from the year before, Newton struggled to take care of the ball and finished with an unimpressive 1.15-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. That's compared to Rodriguez, who despite being known for trying to do too much and getting out of control at times, had a 1.76-to-1 rate.
Rodriguez has graduated and ceded his starting job to Newton. For this to be a smooth transition, the 6'2" Newton has to work on being more careful but also making sure he is making good decisions with his shots. He was 4-of-15 in the Hurricanes' three NCAA tournament games and went scoreless in 20 minutes in the Sweet 16 loss to Villanova.
Michigan State Spartans: Eron Harris
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2015-16 stats: 9.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.1 APG, 43.4% FG, 43.9% 3PT, 20.9 MPG
Few title contenders are losing as much of their nucleus as Michigan State, which through graduation, transfers and NBA draft departures has to replace seven players. That includes Naismith Award finalist (and Big Ten player of the year) Denzel Valentine, sharpshooter Bryn Forbes, leading rebounder Matt Costello and freshman standout Deyonta Davis.
Eron Harris is one of only two returning players who started more than half of the Spartans' games in 2015-16, with the other (Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn Jr.) coming off an injury-plagued season. Harris wasn't able to find a consistent role in his first year after transferring from West Virginia, where he averaged 13.6 points per game in two seasons.
Most effective during the midseason stretch when Valentine was recovering from knee surgery, the 6'3” Harris has shown he can be a go-to scorer. MSU will need to see that on an every-night basis next season to help complement the expected contributions from freshmen Miles Bridges and Joshua Langford.
North Carolina Tar Heels: Kenny Williams
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2015-16 stats: 0.8 PPG, 0.4 RPG, 36.4% FG, 4.2 MPG
Kenny Williams originally signed with VCU, but after ex-Rams head coach Shaka Smart left for Texas, he was given his release and landed with his second choice. It was a move that both he and the Tar Heels hope will pay off in the future, since he didn't get much of a chance to contribute during his freshman year.
With UNC graduating Marcus Paige, there's a large opening on the perimeter that the 6'3” Williams can fill. He'll be competing against senior Nate Britt and incoming freshman Seventh Woods, while junior Joel Berry will handle the point guard duties.
First, though, Williams has to recover from surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. He's expected to be at full strength when preseason practice begins in the fall, but in order to make a real impact next season, he'll need to start working toward this during the summer.
Oklahoma Sooners: Christian James
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2015-16 stats: 2.9 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 42.6% FG, 9.5 MPG
No one player is going to be able to serve as Buddy Hield's replacement—at least not from a production standpoint. Oklahoma will need to be far more balanced offensively with the national player of the year (and his 25 points per game) moving on.
Losing point guard Isaiah Cousins hurts nearly as much, though Jordan Woodard figures to slide into that role in his senior year after being Oklahoma's second-leading scorer and second-leading assist man in 2015-16. With Woodard having to run the offense, though, other guards will need to be producing to help pick up the slack.
Christian James played in all but two games last year as a freshman but logged fewer than 10 minutes in more than half of his appearances. Head coach Lon Kruger turned to the 6'4" guard more often in the postseason, and he averaged 20 minutes in the Sooners' final four games. He had 12 points against Texas A&M and pulled down 10 rebounds against Oregon.
The opportunity is there for James to be more involved. If not, he'll end up behind 4-star freshman prospect Kameron McGusty and midseason transfer Austin Grandstaff.
Oregon Ducks: Jordan Bell
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2015-16 stats: 6.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 57.6% FG
Assuming Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey end up coming back to school following their time going through the NBA draft process—neither is included in DraftExpress' latest mock draft—then Oregon will only have one starting spot to fill. Jordan Bell figures to be able to slide into Elgin Cook's spot at the 4—the same place he started most of his freshman year in 2014-15.
Bell set the school record with 94 blocked shots as a freshman (Chris Boucher obliterated that mark this past season), and he recorded 52 more in 2015-16 to make him the school's career swat leader. Despite missing the first seven games with a foot injury, the 6'9” forward's 91.9 defensive rating was tops on the team last year and would have finished just outside the top 20 nationally had he logged enough minutes.
It's been on the offensive end where Bell has lacked. A 58.6 percent shooter for his career, Bell doesn't take many shots and hasn't been considered a reliable scoring threat, but he's replacing a player in Cook who averaged 10.7 shots and 14.8 points per game.
UCLA Bruins: Jonah Bolden
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2015-16 stats: 4.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.1 APG, 41.5% FG, 21.7 MPG
Jonah Bolden was part of UCLA's 2015 recruiting class but was only allowed to practice that first season, as the NCAA ruled him ineligible due to frequent school movement during his senior year of high school. The Australian native began the year down under and then attended both Findlay Prep in Nevada and Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, which raised red flags that cost him that first year of action.
Despite being able to slowly acclimate himself to the Bruins' system, Bolden's effort was hit-and-miss in 2015-16. The 6'10” forward had a double-double in a December win at Gonzaga and scored 16 points with nine rebounds in February at Arizona State (two of his five double-digit scoring games), but he also had five scoreless outings and six where he failed to make a field goal.
With 6'9” Tony Parker graduating, Bolden and 7-foot junior Thomas Welsh can form a strong paint duo that will go well with the perimeter scoring the Bruins are set to get from seniors Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton and freshman Lonzo Ball. That's assuming Bolden can do his part.
Villanova Wildcats: Darryl Reynolds
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2015-16 stats: 3.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 63.2% FG, 17.1 MPG
In a perfect world, both Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins will come back to Villanova for their senior years to be a part of the national title defense. Whether they return or not has no bearing on the Wildcats' situation in the frontcourt for 2016-17.
Darryl Reynolds was given his chance to be a meaningful player this past season as a junior, and the 6'8” forward made the most of it by tripling his minutes and ranking third on the team in rebounding. He was Daniel Ochefu's relief by default, with Tim Delaney redshirting because of hip surgery and Eric Paschall sitting out after his transfer from Fordham.
Those two players—along with incoming freshman 5-star center Omari Spellman—give Villanova more interior options, so Reynolds will have to work to remain in the mix. He may also be the team's only senior if Hart and Jenkins don't return, and that would add to his value as an experienced mentor.
Virginia Cavaliers: Darius Thompson
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2015-16 stats: 4.3 PPG, 1.4 APG, 1.2 RPG, 53.7% FG, 39.0% 3PT, 17.5 MPG
Darius Thompson will appear on the Virginia year-in-review highlight reel at a much higher rate than you'd expect from someone with his numbers—the product of some wild shots and thunderous dunks. There just wasn't much else in between.
The 6'4” guard started 10 games early in the season and averaged 8.0 in those outings, but otherwise, he didn't do much more than when he was a freshman at Tennessee in 2013-14. He lost his starting job to Devon Hall, despite Hall shooting a team-worst 37.3 percent.
Thompson made all seven of his shots in the NCAA tournament. He scored nine points in 13 minutes against Syracuse; it's a performance that could be just the springboard he needs in his junior year. Virginia is going to need scoring with Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill graduating, and Thompson could be the source.
West Virginia Mountaineers: Esa Ahmad
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2015-16 stats: 4.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, 44.6% FG, 18.1 MPG
It probably wasn't fair that head coach Bob Huggins compared Esa Ahmad to one of his best players ever at West Virginia before he ever played a game. It's still possible Ahmad could some day be as good as Da'Sean Butler, but not if he doesn't make a big jump from his freshman-year performance.
The 6'8” forward started 34 games yet was seventh on the team in scoring and seventh in rebounding. Several reserves averaged more minutes than Ahmad as he struggled to fully grasp all facets of the Press Virginia game plan and was frequently pulled for defensive mistakes. His offensive game was better but still inconsistent.
"Ahmad showed an ability to drive the lane with success to dunk the ball with power, but failed to prove his jump shot could be relied upon," Greg Madia of Rivals.com wrote.
West Virginia is losing its top two scorers and two best rebounders—areas where an improved Ahmad can help greatly.
Wisconsin Badgers: Jordan Hill
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2015-16 stats: 2.9 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 37.9% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 15.6 MPG
Wisconsin could return its entire team if Nigel Hayes opts out of the NBA draft by May 25, which means the Badgers will be able to spend the entire offseason building off what worked (and improving on what didn't) during their turnaround under head coach Greg Gard. That process should include continuing to make Jordan Hill more involved, which began soon after Gard took over for Bo Ryan.
Hill played in just 11 games in 2013-14 as a freshman (redshirted 2014-15), and Ryan only used him for 27 minutes in nine appearances before he retired. Gard gave him 22 minutes in his first game in charge, and the 6'3” guard responded with 10 points, four rebounds and four assists.
A 13-point performance in a win over Indiana and nine apiece in victories over Ohio State and Iowa showed Hill has the ability to produce. He'll just need more consistent minutes and the green light to be aggressive on a regular basis.
Xavier Musketeers: Sean O'Mara
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2015-16 stats: 3.2 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 60.9% FG, 7.0 MPG
Xavier ended this past season with four 6'10” players on the roster, but now it has one after James Farr graduated, Jalen Reynolds turned pro and freshman Makinde London transferred. All that's left to protect the rim is Sean O'Mara, but he has a lot of work to do in order to be a serviceable option inside.
His offensive game was solid for a freshman, but the problem was he couldn't keep himself on the court long enough to make enough notable contributions. A foul rate of 6.6 per 40 minutes—he fouled out in January against DePaul in just four minutes—kept him from doing more than just get in the way.
O'Mara's improvement in defending without fouling should enable him to use his size and agility to be Xavier's top rebounder and a reliable scorer.
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information from 247Sports unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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