Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Valero Texas Open
From Hilton Head to San Antonio we go this week for the Valero Texas Open. Texas winds wreaked havoc on the field last year. The first-round scoring average (76.695) was the highest outside of a major since 1999 as players contended with gusts nearing 40 mph. The scoring average for the week was 2.521 strokes over par: the highest outside of the majors.
Fortunately for players (and fans), Aeolus (that’s the Greek god of the winds for those not nerdy enough to remember their Greek mythology) is expected to be more charitable toward the 156-man field this week.
Tight fairways, deep bunkers and an abundance of native vegetation (from which Kevin Na infamously tallied a 16), make the Oaks course a tough test.
PGATour.com's Rob Bolton elaborates
"Influenced by that bear of a first round last year, the course yielded the second-lowest green-in-regulation percentage of the season at just 51.73. Its average proximity to the hole of 43 feet, 1 inch, ranked as the longest of any course. It measured longest in the stat in every split inside 175 yards. All pars are testy as well. Most notably, at 4.91, the par 5s were the most challenging set of the season.
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Jimmy Walker, Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar and Phil Mickelson headline the field, with media darling Bryson DeChambeau teeing it up in Texas as well fresh off a top-five finish in his first professional start
Read on for the storylines, picks and more.
Where to Watch
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Defending Champion
Jimmy Walker
Where
TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks), 7,435 yards, par 72
What
Total Purse: $6,200,000
Winning Share: $1,160,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday (ET): 3-6 p.m. (Golf Channel)
Saturday-Sunday (ET): 1-2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. (CBS)
Biggest Storylines
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Phil Mickelson is jumping back into the saddle pretty quickly after a disappointing missed cut at the Masters. Many fans will be keen to see how Lefty bounces back.
Charley Hoffman, who played well at the RBC Heritage, has tallied nine top-10 finishes in his last 15 Valero Texas Open starts.
Bryson DeChambeau earned a spot in the field thanks to his top-10 showing at Harbour Town and thus won’t have to burn a sponsor’s exemption as he pursues his PGA Tour card.
Statistical keys this week, per GolfStrat, include: strokes gained: putting, approaches from greater than 100 yards, scrambling, approaches from 100-125 yards and driving distance.
Also of note: The tournament is being played in April for the first time in four years. For the last three years, the VTO was positioned ahead of the Masters. Accordingly, the strength of the field is up slightly.
The Favorites
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Jimmy Walker: The tournament winner last year, Jimmy Walker enters the Valero Texas Open on the heels of a 29th-place finish at the Masters. Walker, a Texan adept in the state of Texas, is 29th on tour in driving distance and 31st in strokes gained: putting. He's 37th on tour in approaches from 100-125 yards.
Branden Grace: Last week's winner, Branden Grace, finished 30th at the Valero Texas Open last year. Grace is 16th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, he's 13th on tour in scoring average.
Zach Johnson: ZJ finished sixth at the Valero Texas Open in 2014 and 20th last year. Most recently, he finished 33rd at the RBC Heritage after missing the cut.
Other expected contenders: J.B. Holmes, Brandt Snedeker, Charley Hoffman, Chris Kirk
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The Dark Horses
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Bryce Molder: Molder finished sixth at the RBC Heritage the last time he teed it up. He recorded a 20th-place finish at last year's Valero Texas Open. Molder is 16th on tour in scrambling this year.
William McGirt: Twenty-first on tour in strokes gained: total and 18th in scoring average, William McGirt has been statistically sound this year. McGirt finished 40th at the Valero Texas Open last year. He finished ninth at last week's RBC Heritage.
Other names to keep an eye on: Bryson DeChambeau, Aaron Baddeley, Russell Henley
Prediction
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Winner: Matt Kuchar
Twenty-eighth in the Official World Golf Ranking, ninth in Golfweek's Sagarin ranking, tour stalwart Matt Kuchar finished 15th at last year's Valero Texas Open and fourth in 2014.
Heading to Texas, Kuch finished ninth at the RBC Heritage and 24th at the Masters.
Kuchar is 34th in strokes gained: putting and 18th in strokes gained: total. Eleventh in scoring average, the Georgia Tech alum is 31st in scrambling.
Without a win since taking the RBC Heritage in 2014, Kuchar is due. With good form, solid course fit and excellent tournament history, the veteran is a good pick to win in Texas.
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