10 College Basketball Teams Doomed for a Rebuilding Year in 2016-17
Maryland and Hawaii battled in the round of 32 this past March, but they might not even combine for 32 wins in 2016-17 after all that they're losing this offseason. And they're respectively just No. 8 and No. 7 in our ranking of the 10 college basketball teams destined for a setback season.
In order to be considered a candidate for this list, the team must have won at least 60 percent of its games last season. After all, it's not much of a rebuilding year if you're struggling for the nth consecutive time.
From there, it was a matter of looking through those 120 rosters and their offseason changes to figure out which ones would most need a miracle to win at least 60 percent of games again next year.
The following teams are ranked in ascending order of how likely they are to lose at least seven more games than they did in 2015-16.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Texas Longhorns
They're definitely losing Cameron Ridley, Prince Ibeh, Connor Lammert and Javan Felix. They might be losing Isaiah Taylor. But there's also a reasonable chance that Taylor stays and they add 5-star freshman Jarrett Allen. Also, head coach Shaka Smart doesn't do rebuilding years.
Connecticut Huskies
Daniel Hamilton, Sterling Gibbs, Shonn Miller, Omar Calhoun, Sam Cassell Jr. and Phillip Nolan are all definitely gone, and Amida Brimah and Rodney Purvis are still testing the draft waters. If they remain in the draft pool, it could be an ugly year for the Huskies. However, if those two come back alongside Jalen Adams, Kentan Facey, VCU transfer Terry Larrier and a quartet of 4-star freshmen, Connecticut could be the team to beat in the AAC.
Utah Utes
With Jakob Poeltl officially (and not surprisingly) in the draft, Utah loses just about everything except for Kyle Kuzma and Lorenzo Bonam. But that's a pretty good combo to start out with when adding Utah State transfer David Collette, presumably getting more out of former JUCO transfer Gabe Bealer and potentially adding Turkish big man Omer Yurtseven. The Utes won't be a No. 3 seed again, but "rebuilding" is a pretty harsh assessment of their expectations.
Iowa Hawkeyes
I've been wrong about the Hawkeyes each of the past two offseasons. They should have struggled after losing Roy Devyn Marble, but they only got stronger. And despite losing Aaron White and Gabriel Olaseni last summer, they got a No. 7 seed for a second straight year. So, yes, they're losing Jarrod Uthoff, Mike Gesell, Adam Woodbury and Anthony Clemmons, but as long as Peter Jok returns, they'll find some way to make it work.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
The Lumberjacks have won at least 27 games in each of the past four years and play in just about the worst conference in the country. "Rebuilding" is a relative term for them. But they did lose their head coach to Oklahoma State and all three of their leading scorers to graduation, so they might actually lose multiple Southland games for the first time in a long time.
Yale Bulldogs
Makai Mason is one of the many players still in the "declared for the draft without hiring an agent" club. However, even if their leading scorer returns (he most likely will), the Bulldogs still lose Justin Sears, Brandon Sherrod and Nick Victor to graduation. With Columbia losing its three leading scorers and Harvard still on the mend, Princeton might win the Ivy League by a four-game margin—only to inevitably get screwed over by the first year of the new four-game Ivy League tournament.
10. Boise State Broncos
2 of 11
Graduated: Anthony Drmic (414 points), Mikey Thompson (380 points), Lonnie Jackson (214 points), Montigo Alford (118 points)
Transferred: None
Declared for Draft: James Webb III (489 points)
Noteworthy Additions: Alex Hobbs (freshman), James Reid (Arkansas-Little Rock)
Returning Players Who Scored 100+ Points: Nick Duncan (370), Chandler Hutchison (212), Paris Austin (123)
It was tough to find a solid 10th candidate for this list.
After a few hours of poring through transfer, NBA draft and recruiting data to get a full picture of just how much each team is gaining and losing, our top nine teams stuck out like a sore thumb. Though each one won at least 20 games this past season, it'd be a surprise to see any of them rack up that many W's next year.
But Boise State conceivably could win 20 games for a fifth consecutive season in a still-floundering Mountain West Conference with Nick Duncan and Chandler Hutchison as its anchors.
It's just not particularly likely.
With James Webb III declaring for the NBA draft, Boise State loses all three of its leading scorers and five of the top eight—not much unlike the turnover Wisconsin had to go through last year. The Badgers were eventually able to turn things around, but the Broncos don't have a guy quite like Vitto Brown or Ethan Happ waiting in the wings.
9. Valparaiso Crusaders
3 of 11
Graduated: Keith Carter (371 points), Darien Walker (288 points), Vashil Fernandez (203 points), E. Victor Nickerson (143 points)
Transferred: None
Declared for Draft: Alec Peters* (679 points)
Noteworthy Additions: Derrik Smits (redshirt freshman)
*Peters has not hired an agent and could still return.
Returning Players Who Scored 100+ Points: Shane Hammink (312), Tevonn Walker (274), Jubril Adekoya (224), David Skara (189)
Alec Peters scored 679 points while the second- and third-leading scorers for the Crusaders combined for 683. It should go without saying that his decision about the NBA—and his potential secondary decision about transferring elsewhere—will have a sizable impact on expectations for Valparaiso in 2016-17.
Even if Peters does return, though, Valparaiso still loses its head coach (Bryce Drew), an excellent shot-blocker (Vashil Fernandez), a three-point shooting, defensive-minded point guard (Keith Carter) and two other key members of its nine-man rotation.
Try as they might, a first-time head coach and the offspring of the Dunking Dutchman (Rik Smits) won't be enough to replace all the Crusaders are losing.
This ranking is assuming that Peters returns. However, if he stays in the draft or transfers elsewhere, feel free to elevate Valparaiso to No. 2 on the list, coincidentally finishing runner-up to another member of the Horizon League.
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8. Maryland Terrapins
4 of 11
Graduated: Jake Layman (416 points), Rasheed Sulaimon (405 points)
Transferred: None
Declared for Draft: Melo Trimble* (534 points), Robert Carter Jr. (443 points), Diamond Stone (436 points)
Noteworthy Additions: Anthony Cowan (freshman), Kevin Huerter (freshman), Dion Wiley (torn meniscus)
*Trimble has not hired an agent and could still return.
Returning Players Who Scored 100+ Points: Jared Nickens (194), Damonte Dodd (106)
If Melo Trimble comes back, if Dion Wiley is fully recovered from his knee injury and if they add another frontcourt player via transfer or recruiting, the Terrapins should be OK.
However, that's a lot of "ifs" for a team that is one draft decision away from losing its entire starting five.
The annual recruiting powerhouses like Duke and Kentucky can withstand that type of attrition on an annual basis, but Maryland is merely adding a pair of guards outside the 247Sports top 50 and a small forward who doesn't even crack the top 150.
The transfer market has been Maryland's bread and butter in recent years. Dez Wells started out at Xavier before giving Maryland three good seasons. Rasheed Sulaimon and Robert Carter Jr. gave the Terrapins a ton of veteran experience in their first and only year with the program.
But when and where will those impact players come from this offseason? Unless they're able to swoop in and get Arkansas State transfer Anthony Livingston, there's not much out there to be had right now. They might need to make some sort of midsummer splash in order to have any shot at getting back to the NCAA tournament for a third straight year.
7. Hawaii Warriors
5 of 11
Graduated: Roderick Bobbitt (434 points), Quincy Smith (276 points), Sai Tummala (214 points)
Transferred: Isaac Fleming (219 points), Stefan Jovanovic (166 points)
Declared for Draft: Stefan Jankovic (516 points), Aaron Valdes* (424 points)
Noteworthy Additions: Jack Purchase (Auburn), Matt Owies (Australia), Drew Buggs (freshman)
*Valdes has not hired an agent and could still return.
Returning Player Who Scored 100+ Points: Mike Thomas (270)
Even if Aaron Valdes returns to school, Hawaii has a ton of holes to fill after losing its starting backcourt, both of its centers and a pair of quality reserves.
Jack Purchase played all of 91 minutes as a freshman at Auburn, but he'll almost certainly start at center for the Warriors, seeing as how they don't have any other options.
Chances are high that both incoming point guards will log a ton of minutes, as well. Owies is the intriguing addition as someone who has played a fair amount nationally, but he would have to be special immediately to make up for all that they're losing.
Moreover, the competition in the Big West is stiff. If Mamadou Ndiaye comes back for UC Irvine, the Anteaters should have one more solid season. UC Davis already went through its rebuilding year and should be back among the conference leaders in 2016-17. And Long Beach State has one of the best minor conference rosters in the country.
Hawaii probably won't be a bottom-feeder in that conference, but after recording 70 wins over the past three seasons, the Warriors might be lucky to win 50 percent of their games in 2016-17.
6. Hampton Pirates
6 of 11
Graduated: Reggie Johnson (578 points), Quinton Chievous (460 points), Brian Darden (416 points), Jervon Pressley (187 points), Dionte Adams (160 points)
Transferred: None
Declared for Draft: None
Noteworthy Additions: None
Returning Players Who Scored 100+ Points: Lawrence Cooks (241), Kalin Fisher (115)
Hampton is losing nearly 80 percent of its scoring from last season to graduation—second to only Tulsa among teams on this list. It's more than just the scoring, though, as Quinton Chievous averaged a double-double last season, while Jervon Pressley and Dionte Adams each pitched in better than 5.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game.
However, it's tough to rank Hampton in our top five when the MEAC isn't exactly a breeding ground for elite basketball teams. In fact, 10 of the 13 teams in the conference were rated by KenPom among the 60 worst teams in the nation last season.
At No. 229 nationally, though, Hampton wasn't that far ahead of the pack. So, even though the conference isn't good, there isn't much separation, either.
After going 24-9 in 2010-11, the Pirates plummeted to 12-21 after losing just three starters. They could be headed for quite the tumble this year after losing five of their six leaders in minutes played.
5. Stony Brook Seawolves
7 of 11
Graduated: Jameel Warney (655 points), Carson Puriefoy (493 points), Rayshaun McGrew (339 points)
Transferred: None
Declared for Draft: None
Noteworthy Additions: None
Returning Players Who Scored 100+ Points: Ahmad Walker (337), Lucas Woodhouse (208), Bryan Sekunda (182), Tyrell Sturdivant (101)
In terms of the pure number of players leaving the program, Stony Brook is in better shape than any other school on this list.
However, the Seawolves lost their three leading scorers and their head coach, so 2016-17 could be quite the adventure.
Outside of maybe Oakland's Kay Felder, Jameel Warney was the best minor conference player in the nation. He had 45 double-doubles in 68 games over the past two seasons and also blocked 185 shots for good measure. In the win over Vermont that finally sent Stony Brook to the tournament for the first time in school history, Warney had 43 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks.
Meanwhile, Carson Puriefoy had 23 points in that game, and Rayshaun McGrew added six of his own. The three seniors combined to score 72 of the team's 80 points while accounting for 79.7 percent of the field goals attempted in that game. That's an awful lot to replace.
Warney also had 23 points and 15 rebounds in the 85-57 loss to Kentucky in the NCAA tournament. Imagine how ugly it would have been without him and his two running mates.
4. Tennessee State Tigers
8 of 11
Graduated: Keron DeShields (496 points), Tahjere McCall (454 points), Marcus Roper (232 points), Demontez Loman (139 points), Xavier Richards (138 points), Christian Griggs-Williams (118 points)
Transferred: None
Declared for Draft: None
Noteworthy Additions: Ken'Darrius Hamilton (JUCO transfer)
Returning Players Who Scored 100+ Points: Wayne Martin (332), Darreon Reddick (175)
The turnover at Tennessee State isn't quite as drastic as the top two teams on our list, but it's nearly impossible for an Ohio Valley Conference team to replace more than 70 percent of its scoring in one offseason.
Take Murray State, for example. The Racers went 29-6 in 2014-15, lost 72.1 percent of their scoring and went just 17-14 this past season. And they were even able to add Texas transfer Damarcus Croaker, Chattanooga transfer Gee McGhee and standout JUCO transfer Bryce Jones.
Tennessee State is merely adding the leading scorer from a JUCO team that went 4-18.
And the Tigers aren't exactly far removed from knowing what it feels like to lose a lot of games. Before head coach Dana Ford orchestrated a 15-game turnaround to 20-11 this past season, they went a combined 10-51 in 2013-14 and 2014-15.
3. Saint Joseph's Hawks
9 of 11
Graduated: Isaiah Miles (653 points), Aaron Brown (373 points), Papa Ndao (148 points)
Transferred: None
Declared for Draft: DeAndre' Bembry (627 points)
Noteworthy Additions: Nick Robinson (freshman)
Returning Players Who Scored 100+ Points: James Demery (292), Shavar Newkirk (289), Lamarr Kimble (217), Pierfrancesco Oliva (133)
Saint Joseph's isn't losing a ton of players, but like Stony Brook, it is losing its top three guys.
The top two are particularly problematic, though, as Isaiah Miles and DeAndre' Bembry were two of just 12 players in the entire country to record at least 625 points and 275 rebounds last season. Add in either 50 steals or 75 assists as a filter, and that list is reduced to just two names: Bembry and Ben Simmons.
With the possible exception of Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer, there wasn't a more dominant duo in the country than Miles and Bembry.
But at least Gonzaga has some outstanding incoming players to help replace its guys. Quite the contrary, the Hawks' current list of incoming players consists of one 3-star freshman and nothing else. And the four returning players listed above who scored at least 100 points are also the only returning players to log at least 100 minutes, so they could be headed for one heck of a rebuilding year.
Of course, this is nothing for head coach Phil Martelli. He lost three of his four leading scorers from the 2013-14 team that made the tournament and won 70.6 percent of its games and proceeded to win just 41.9 percent of his games the following year.
2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
10 of 11
Graduated: Shaquille Harrison (483 points), James Woodard (477 points), Rashad Smith (218 points), Brandon Swannegan (212 points), Marquel Curtis (206 points), D'Andre Wright (167 points), Rashad Ray (131 points)
Transferred: None
Declared for Draft: None
Noteworthy Additions: Junior Etou (Rutgers), Travis Atson (freshman), Corey Henderson (JUCO)
Returning Player Who Scored 100+ Points: Pat Birt (383)
It's fun to have a team with seven seniors who have been playing together for multiple seasons. Despite the public outcry over Tulsa getting into the dance, I was glad to see these guys get one last chance to win a NCAA tournament game before moving on to the next stage in their lives. (They didn't get it done, but they had a chance.)
What's not fun is trying to win games the year after having seven seniors among your eight leading scorers.
Heck, forget about "leading" scorers. Aside from Pat Birt, Sterling Taplin (75 points) is Tulsa's only returning player to have scored a single point in 2015-16. Maybe Tulsa survives that type of turnover if it's still in the WAC or C-USA, but there are too many quality teams in the American to be able to tread water while replacing that much production.
At least it appears that head coach Frank Haith is going to stick around for this rebuilding season. That's better than what he did to Missouri.
1. Milwaukee Panthers
11 of 11
Graduated: Matt Tiby (514 points), J.J. Panoske (345 points), J.R. Lyle (119 points)
Transferred: Akeem Springs (423 points), Jordan Johnson (414 points), Austin Arians (377 points), Cody Wichmann (157 points), JayQuan McCloud (95 points)
Declared for Draft: None
Noteworthy Additions: None
Returning Players Who Scored 100+ Points: None
If you have aspirations of being an athletic director of a D-I program one day, here's a tutorial on how NOT to do things.
Long before Milwaukee's 20-13 season even began, Milwaukee AD Amanda Braun decided not to allow the team to go on an international trip, even though it would have been completely funded by a booster, according to a report by Tom Pipines of Fox6Now.com. Likewise, Braun decided that the team should not pursue opportunities to play in a postseason tournament like the CBI or CIT, even though that also would have been funded by alumni.
This is when things started to turn ugly.
Leading scorer and outgoing senior Matt Tiby tweeted: "My hard work is being taken lightly by the University."
Second-leading scorer Akeem Springs went on quite the Twitter rant about Braun's decision, including such gems as "Since when is college about limiting opportunities?" and "We love our coaching staff to death. Even more so because we know outside of them nobody has our back."
And that was five days before Braun's decision to fire head coach Rob Jeter after 11 years of service and a career winning record—and notifying the team via text message.
Shockingly (not shockingly), players are leaving the program. Springs signed with Minnesota on Friday, Austin Arians chose Wake Forest on Sunday and we're still waiting on the decision of the three other Panthers who decided enough is enough.
Poor LaVall Jordan is entering into a nearly impossible situation as a first-time head coach after 13 years as an assistant between Butler, Iowa and Michigan. If the Panthers even win 40 percent of their games this season, Jordan deserves some sort of medal.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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