Rams' LA Tenure Starts with a Bang: Is Risking Future for QB at No. 1 Worth It?

There are several reasons why it had been 12 years since a first-overall NFL draft pick had been traded, but the primary explanation for that astonishingly long tradeless run is this: Quarterbacks have become more valuable than ever and, since the turn of the century, have been top picks more often than not. 

Naturally—and the Tennessee Titans made this clear on several occasions before finally dealing their No. 1 pick to the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday, as announced on their official site—top picks have become extremely expensive on the trade market. That, combined with the notion that even quarterbacks picked first overall are hit-or-miss propositions, creates a dynamic in which teams are often "stuck" with top selections. 

Not this year, because the Rams have fallen in love. And when that happens, you do irrational things.

Irrational things like trading a first-round pick, two second-round picks and a third-round pick in order to move up from the 15th selection to the top spot—a high-risk mortgage on the future of a franchise that is desperate for redemption in a new setting after posting a losing record in nine consecutive seasons to close out its tenure in St. Louis. 

The Washington Redskins surrendered a similarly large bounty four years ago in order to move up in the first round and draft a quarterback they'd fallen in love with. Sure enough, that quarterback—No. 2 overall pick Robert Griffin III—became a bust and is no longer on the roster. And that should have served as a cautionary tale for the Rams, especially because they were the team the Redskins traded with. 

But love is love—often blind, rarely rational.

Who's the lucky quarterback? Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times reported on Thursday that the Rams are "targeting" North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, before noting in a follow-up tweet that Cal's Jared Goff remains "heavily in [the] mix." And Bleacher Report's Matt Miller reported that the Rams "specifically traded up to get in front of the Browns to get Goff."

Bruce Crummy/Associated Press

There's no need for smokescreens at this stage, so it's rather odd that conflicting reports have surfaced. The reality is there's no way in hell the Rams haven't decided on one quarterback or the other. If they weren't sold on a particular quarterback, they wouldn't have parted with four premium draft picks in order to move up a record 14 spots to ensure that they'd have their pick of the litter. That is far too expensive a luxury in this league. 

Could they change their mind? Absolutely, although you'd think it would take a monumental development for something like that to happen with the combine, pro days, player visits and months of due diligence already in the books. 

It's possible the Rams are placating the league by letting mystery linger, thereby maintaining top-pick-related drama for two more weeks. Between now and then, you'll hear calls for them to take the more NFL-ready Goff—a Cali kid who served as a three-year starter in the Pac-12—and you'll hear as many calls for them to pick the 6'5", 237-pound Wentz—a mysterious yet deeply intriguing North Dakota State product with only two Missouri Valley Football Conference seasons as a starter under his belt. It's possible they'll roll snake eyes either way. 

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

That's the thing: Regardless of whether Los Angeles takes Wentz or Goff, and regardless of whether it has already made that decision, the franchise is taking a tremendous risk. Some figures: 

• Since 2000, 11 quarterbacks have been picked first overall. At least three—David Carr, JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford—have to be considered busts. At least three—Carson Palmer, Eli Manning and Cam Newton—should probably be considered successes. The jury remains out on the other five—Michael Vick, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston—but none have been All-Pros or been to Super Bowls. 
• Only one—Newton—has been a first-team All Pro, and only one—Manning—has led his team to a championship.
• And if we date back to 1990, only 13 percent of the quarterbacks drafted first overall have led the teams that drafted them to championships, while 33 percent have never been to a Pro Bowl and 40 percent have never won a playoff game. 
• Thirteen of the last 17 Super Bowls have been won by teams led by quarterbacks who were not drafted in the top 10. The only two exceptions are Peyton and Eli Manning, who won two each. 

Category	Total	Percentage
Pro Bowlers	10	67%
Won a playoff game	9	60%
Winning records	8	53%
First-team All-Pros	2	13%
Super Bowl winners	2	13%
MVPs	2	13%

So is it worth it? On the surface, you wouldn't think so, especially since there isn't a consensus top quarterback in this draft—although that was also the case when Peyton Manning was drafted ahead of Ryan Leaf in 1998.

And while on one hand we continue to be presented with evidence that it is nearly impossible to win consistently in this league without strong quarterback play, on the other hand we have to consider that a lot of good quarterbacks have recently been mined from the middle of the first round, the back of the first round, the second round, even the third or fourth round. 

It's hard to fault the Rams for taking a home run cut. They might see something in Wentz or Goff that many of us don't. Those in charge are millionaires because of their football acumen.

It's entirely possible this backfires the same way Washington's move for RGIII did in 2012, but it's also possible it pans out the same splendid way it did for the New York Giants in 2004. That year, the Giants gave up picks in the first, third and fifth round in order to move up from No. 4 to No. 1 for Eli Manning, but they wouldn't possess their most recent two Lombardi Trophies if not for that. 

This is what makes the draft so intriguing. There's a very decent chance that in two years we'll view this move as a stroke of genius. There's a chance we'll look back and say, "Wow, Goff/Wentz has flourished, and the Rams are contenders. Kudos to Les Snead and Jeff Fisher for having that foresight. Forget about that 2017 first-round pick and those three picks from Day 2 of the 2016 and 2017 drafts."

Quarterback	Rating	Round drafted
1. Russell Wilson	110.1	3rd
2. Andy Dalton	106.2	2nd
3. Carson Palmer	104.6	1st
4. Tom Brady	102.2	6th
5. Kirk Cousins	101.6	4th
6. Drew Brees	101	2nd
6. Tyrod Taylor	99.4	6th

But there's an equal chance it will become yet another cautionary tale, and we'll find ourselves wondering how Los Angeles didn't see that Goff and/or Wentz are flawed—that Goff doesn't have the right physical makeup to be elite and that Wentz was always too raw to get a proper read on him.

There's a chance we'll look back and ask why the Rams didn't just stay put and draft Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch while retaining the four high-end picks they surrendered. 

The Rams are gambling that whoever they pick is so much better than Lynch or any other quarterback in this draft that it'll be worth giving up four quality players who could have been drafted in the next 13 months. In doing so, they're also conceding that it was unlikely they'd find a quarterback outside of the top of the draft, despite the fact that six of the NFL's seven-highest-rated passers in 2015 were not first-round selections. 

But love is love—often a gamble, rarely rational. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon