UFC on Fox 19: Head-to-Toe Breakdowns for Evans-Teixeira and Machida-Henderson
The UFC is back on Fox this weekend, but unfortunately we will not get the lightweight title eliminator we had hoped to see.
An injury forced Tony Ferguson off the card, and Khabib Nurmagomedov will instead welcome Darrell Horcher to the UFC on the main card. The injury forced the organization to shuffle the deck a bit, elevating No. 4-ranked light heavyweight Glover Teixeira vs. No. 9-ranked Rashad Evans to the main event.
The new co-main event is a rematch between No. 5-ranked middleweight Lyoto Machida and No. 14-ranked Dan Henderson.
The televised fight card still has significant implications in the light heavyweight and middleweight divisions. That makes it worth taking a closer look at the top two billed bouts coming your way this Saturday.
Here is your head-to-toe breakdown of the main and co-main events at UFC on Fox 19.
Striking
1 of 5
Let's begin in the middleweight division.
In their first meeting in February 2013, Machida and Henderson combined for just 47 significant strikes. And those numbers were front-loaded. In the third and final round, Machida landed six to Henderson's two.
Henderson has his big right hand, the "H-bomb," but it is no secret who the better striker is in this matchup. Machida is more diverse and quicker and, simply put, has better technique. Henderson relies mostly on his one weapon, whereas Machida varies his attack significantly.
Machida has to stay mindful, but without argument he is the better pure striker. It is easy to give The Dragon the edge.
In the main event, I may ruffle a few feathers by siding with the former UFC light heavyweight champion.
Yes, Teixeira is a fantastic boxer with huge power. Yet, this matchup looks similar to the one Evans had against Rampage Jackson. Evans won the striking exchanges much like I expect him to against Teixeira.
The biggest difference between the two is Evans' speed. Teixeira has better technique, but he is not close to matching Evans' quickness. The former titleholder has shown explosive power in both his hands and feet. He nearly knocked Jackson out. He can replicate that success against Teixeira, but he should not stand in the pocket to trade with the Brazilian.
Edge: Machida and Evans
Grappling
2 of 5
Conventional wisdom says that Henderson is the better grappler in the matchup against Machida. He is very decorated. That line of thinking is dangerous, though.
Henderson hasn't shown top-level takedown ability in years. Many years. On the flip side, Machida has improved his offensive grappling (specifically with leg trips) and has tremendous takedown defense. Put their numbers side by side and you'll note the difference.
I would not expect Machida to attempt many grappling exchanges, but he also is not in any danger from the old man either. Machida takes this category.
The 205-pound main event is a bit easier to break down.
Teixeira is an underrated wrestler, but Evans' MMA wrestling is fantastic when he's healthy. The way he switches levels on opponents as they throw or defend strikes is a thing of beauty. Teixeira's boxing stance and tendency to become flat-footed while seeking KO blows should give Evans a big target to exploit.
Edge: Machida and Evans
Submissions
3 of 5
I really hate to dismiss an entire fight from a section, but is there any reason to waste time on Henderson vs. Machida in this category? Submissions aren't Henderson's forte (he has two in his nearly 20-year career), and Machida is a longtime jiu-jitsu black belt with multiple submission wins.
Easy enough.
In the headliner, it's a little more difficult to determine a leader, but there is still one clear choice: Teixeira.
Evans has quality jiu-jitsu that is rarely seen, but Teixeira's game is just a bit better. His jiu-jitsu is crisper and a bit more technical. The biggest issue that will arise for Teixeira is getting a dominant position against a better wrestler.
That's the only thing holding Teixeira back in this fight, but speaking strictly to their submission ability, the Brazilians hold the edge.
Edge: Machida and Teixeira
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Henderson vs. Machida's X-Factor: What Has Changed?
Their first encounter was not an exciting affair, and perhaps they'll replicate that snoozer Saturday. That may actually be more beneficial to their long-term health.
It has been three years since they fought, and three years of varied results for both men. Henderson is just 2-5 with three knockout losses and a submission defeat to his resume. Machida? He's 3-4 with back-to-back beatings at the hands of Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero.
Who can still take punishment, or are they both shot? That's a big question hovering over this fight.
Evans vs. Teixeira's X-Factor: Positional Dominance
The key to this fight will be who can dominate the positions. Who has control of the cage in the striking exchanges? Who can be the aggressor in the clinch? Which man ends up on top if the fight goes to the ground?
Strategy is important, given how their styles will clash. Both have the power to end the fight in one shot, which is definitely a possible outcome, but the more likely scenario is a tactical battle between two crafty veterans.
For hardcore fight fans who enjoy smart fighters, this one may be for you. Keep an eye on how each man, and his corner, thinks through the fight. Adjustments between rounds will be crucial to success.
Predictions
5 of 5
I've given Machida the edge in every single category and called him the quicker fighter. It should be no surprise that I side with him in the co-main event.
I have no faith in Henderson anymore. He's a shell of his former self.
Machida gets a stoppage by TKO in the first round. It will be more a statement of a sad end to Henderson's storied career than one of Machida's performance.
As for the main event, I'll take Evans.
I recognize that Teixeira could clip Evans and make this a short night. Evans has always had a mark on his sheet for not having a granite chin. But even if he did, Teixeira hits hard enough to knock anyone out if he lands cleanly.
Even with that possibility, I like Evans to go back to his wrestling to wear down Teixeira and take a five-round decision. It won't be the most fan-pleasing performance, but it's one that Evans needs. He struggled to find success against Ryan Bader, but he was coming off a long layoff in a matchup against another excellent wrestler. Now, he's more prepared for a familiar stylistic matchup.
Teixeira's defense will prevent him from being stopped, but the scorecards won't be all that close at night's end.
Co-Main Event Prediction: Lyoto Machida defeats Dan Henderson by TKO in the first round.
Main Event Prediction: Rashad Evans defeats Glover Teixeira by unanimous decision.
All stats are provided by FightMetric.
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