NFL Draft 2016: Mock Draft and Trends That Will Be Bucked This Year

Two weeks, two days. That's all that separates the NFL from ending the monthslong buildup process to the 2016 NFL draft on April 28.

The last three-plus months have been instructive on both how much and how little the draft process means. North Dakota State's Carson Wentz was barely a blip on the radar to most casual fans in December. I might have still thought his first name was Connor in January. Now he's almost certainly going to be the first quarterback off the board—perhaps as high as No. 2 to the Cleveland Browns.

A lot of other stuff is unchanged. Everyone seems sure Jalen Ramsey, Laremy Tunsil and Joey Bosa are awesome at football. They've been part of the top-five process this entire time. No one knows what on earth to make of Robert Nkemdiche's career trajectory.

These things will be figured out in the coming years. But for now, the first round is starting to take enough shape that we can take an educated guess on how it will play out.

Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
1	Tennessee Titans	Laremy Tunsil	OT	Ole Miss
2	Cleveland Browns	Carson Wentz	QB	North Dakota St.
3	San Diego Chargers	Jalen Ramsey	DB	Florida State
4	Dallas Cowboys	Joey Bosa	DE	Ohio State
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Myles Jack	OLB	UCLA
6	Baltimore Ravens	DeForest Buckner	DL	Oregon
7	San Francisco 49ers	Jared Goff	QB	Cal
8	Philadelphia Eagles	Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	Florida
10	New York Giants	Noah Spence	DE	Eastern Kentucky
11	Chicago Bears	Shaq Lawson	DE	Clemson
12	New Orleans Saints	Leonard Floyd	OLB	Georgia
13	Miami Dolphins	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
14	Oakland Raiders	Eli Apple	CB	Ohio State
15	Los Angeles Rams	Laquon Treadwell	WR	Ole Miss
16	Detroit Lions	Jack Conklin	OT	Michigan State
17	Atlanta Falcons	Darron Lee	OLB	Ohio State
18	Indianapolis Colts	Taylor Decker	OT	Ohio State
19	Buffalo Bills	A'Shawn Robinson	DT	Alabama
20	New York Jets	Emmanuel Ogbah	DE	Oklahoma State
21	Washington	Robert Nkemdiche	DL	Ole Miss
22	Houston Texans	Corey Coleman	WR	Baylor
23	Minnesota Vikings	Will Fuller	WR	Notre Dame
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Mackensie Alexander	CB	Clemson
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Sheldon Rankins	DT	Louisville
26	Seattle Seahawks	Shon Coleman	OT	Auburn
27	Green Bay Packers	Reggie Ragland	ILB	Alabama
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Vonn Bell	S	Ohio State
29	Arizona Cardinals	Ryan Kelly	C	Alabama
30	Carolina Panthers	Kevin Dodd	DE	Clemson
31	Denver Broncos	Paxton Lynch	QB	Memphis

Draft Trends

FCS Quarterbacks Don't Go This High

Until they do. Joe Flacco was the last FCS quarterback to go in the first round. He went No. 18 overall in 2008. Before that, it was Steve McNair, who doubles as the highest-drafted FCS quarterback in history when he was the No. 3 pick in 1995.

The entire list: Flacco, McNair, Ken O'Brien, Phil Simms, Doug Williams and Dan Pastorini. The good news for Wentz is that's a solid list of talent. All but one of those quarterbacks (Williams) made a Pro Bowl. Only one (O'Brien) didn't play in a Super Bowl. None are Hall of Famers, but the success rate is reasonably high.

Still, there's a reason the sample is so small. Elite quarterbacks don't typically slip through the cracks. There just aren't that many of them—even at the NFL level.

Flacco began his collegiate career at Pittsburgh. McNair only had to play at a lower level because all the elite schools recruiting him wanted him to switch positions. Wentz was unheralded as a recruit in an era when we have more recruiting services unearthing talent than what's healthy.

In a nutshell: Wentz is a unicorn. He's the unique unknown. Parsing through his tape is possible now that he's flying up draft boards, but his ascent is borderline unheard of in 2016. We're probably looking at another decade or two before another player like this makes draft waves.

For now, though, Wentz is the exception to the rule. For better or for worse.

Running Backs Don't Go This High, Either

Until they do. Todd Gurley started the exception-to-the-rule trend last year. He was the No. 10 overall pick in 2015 despite a catastrophic knee injury and all logical trends pointing in the opposite direction.

Make no mistake: Taking a running back in the first round isn't a good use of assets. It's borderline dumb. There were only seven running backs with over 1,000 yards last season, and just one (Adrian Peterson) topped 300 carries. The number of high-usage running backs dwindles exponentially by the season.

In 2013, there were 13 running backs to top 1,000 yards. That's a reduction by nearly half in a two-year span. While it's true four of the seven 1,000-yard backs last season were first-round picks, it's worth noting their paths weren't ideal.

Darren McFadden has topped the mark twice since being the No. 4 pick in 2008. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers thought so little of Doug Martin before 2015 that they didn't pick up his fifth-year rookie option—guaranteed only for injury.

So, yeah. Running backs are fungible.

All of this comes to the surface because we're potentially looking at a second straight top-10 back in Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott. The resume is there. Elliott has rushed for 3,699 yards and 41 touchdowns over the last two seasons, including 12 games of 100 yards or more in 2015. Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus wrote for ESPN.com, calling him the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson:

"

Elliott might not be the runner [Peterson] is, but from the get-go he can play on more downs and affect the game in more areas. When you add all of that to the fact that the gap between the two purely as a rusher is not colossal, Elliott is the best running back prospect to come along since Peterson, and the most complete prospect at the position in years.

"

Sure, we heard the same thing about Gurley last season. But Peterson comparisons are canon. They're like Peyton Manning quarterback comparisons. When Peterson is mentioned, it's to explicitly say how head and shoulders above the competition a particular prospect is.

The Miami Dolphins at No. 13 feel like the bottom of Elliott's range at the moment.