Top Stars to Watch at the 2016 Monte Carlo Masters
The ATP Tour shifts to scenic Monte Carlo as world No.1 Novak Djokovic looks to continue his dominance against a bevy of talented stars. It’s the first big red-clay tournament on the European stretch to the French Open, and it will be a chance for the top players to gain momentum.
Against a backdrop of crashing waves and bustling tourism, warriors will battle it out on a slow—even for clay—high-bouncing surface, and some of them will gain confidence, while others falter. There are the veteran champions and a few rising newcomers, although we do not include injury-prone Milos Raonic and dynamic Nick Kyrgios who will not play Monte Carlo.
What are the stories and realistic expectations for each of these stars? The following slides examine the most important particulars for each star.
Alexander Zverev
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Young Alexander Zverev has garnered recent attention as a future star. He has the requisite power with his lanky frame, but best of all he moves with championship footwork. Clay is a good surface for Zverez, and he hopes to gain greater match experience at his Monte Carlo maiden appearance. Will he showcase mature shot selection under pressure?
The road this week is a stiff test. He’ll have to get by his 18-year-old peer Andrey Rublev who will be just as hungry to fight for a win. Surviving that, Zverez would have the rested, aging wonder David Ferrer—a fighter who knows how to exploit any weaknesses in a flawed or hesitant opponent. If Zverez isn’t dominating out of the gate, he could be in for a grueling lesson.
On the other hand, Zverev could establish his star if he can win three matches for a shot at world No. 1 Novak Djokovic. How soon is the future?
"Alexander the Great" is ready for conquest.
David Goffin
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We like David Goffin’s evolving game, even if it’s not so explosive. The lightweight has something that may be more important on clay. He has the shot selection and calculating mind used to playing more powerful players. He’s tough-minded and fresh off back-to-back semifinals appearances in Masters 1000 tournaments.
Unfortunately for Goffin, he must escape two matches against a threesome of veteran clay-courters, namely Feliciano Lopez and either Fernando Verdasco or Federico Delbonis—fresh off winning the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships in Houston. Then he could be facing off against Ferrer or Zverev.
Just how hard will it be for Goffin to get to the semifinals? Maybe 5 percent. Djokovic could be waiting in the quarterfinals.
Dominic Thiem
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While Zverev and Goffin rise on the scene as potential contender and top-10 threat, respectively. Dominic Thiem is ready to star on his best surface. The 22-year-old Austrian has a big game, impressive toughness and a great mentality to win close matches on clay.
Four smaller clay-court titles in the past year show he is worthy to compete for Monte Carlo, and that’s exactly what tennis fans are curious to see. Can he knock off the top stars for the title?
Thiem defeated Rafael Nadal on clay in February. He slugged it out with Djokovic for a tense defeat at Miami. He is slated for a possible third-round rematch with Nadal, which will be another trial of his readiness as a French Open top contender. Can he handle the expectations of being a favorite, even as Nadal will no doubt plot for desperate revenge in trying to come back as a titlist here?
Thiem must grow up against veteran champions just for a shot against the great Djokovic in the final.
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Roger Federer
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The most popular tennis star in the world makes his return to tennis after surgery and more than two months recovering. The question for many tennis fans is whether Roger Federer will be able to resume his place as a contending star or he hits a fading stretch of his career that will look more like a farewell tour.
When it comes to the Swiss star, bet on greatness.
Federer has never won Monte Carlo, and there’s not much chance he will break through now. His last, best chance collapsed in the third set of the 2014 final to countryman Stan Wawrinka.
Ideally, he would love to win a few matches to get in match shape with his timing and competitiveness. He has a nice draw that could see him cruise to the quarterfinals and possibly further.
Most of all, how will his knee hold up? Will he slide into the brick dust with youthful footwork, or will he look more guarded as he feels his way back onto the tour?
Stan Wawrinka
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It’s usually the same old story for Stan Wawrinka. Is he hot or cold? Often he will nosedive out of the headlines, and just as all eyes settle on the rest of the field, Wawrinka reemerges to win huge matches and titles.
In February he won Dubai, but in March he went out out quietly at a pair of U.S. Masters 1000 tournaments. Will he turn things around in April? He won the 2014 Monte Carlo Masters, but he was a nonfactor in 2015 until winning his surprising French Open title.
The key for Wawrinka is, he has time to wind up his powerful strokes on slow red clay. Then it depends on hitting with consistent intelligence against threats in his draw like Borna Coric or Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gilles Simon or Grigor Dimitrov.
Don’t expect Wawrinka to win Monte Carlo but don’t be overly surprised if he does.
Andy Murray
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The 2016 season has not gone according to plan for Andy Murray.
Will this be his turning point? Since getting blown out of the Australian Open final, the Scot wandered through a sluggish March and must be ready to defend his excellent 2015 clay-court season. If not, it won’t be long before he is unable to hide out at the bottom of draws as the No. 2 seed (not that anyone else in the top five is making a charge).
Murray’s friendly draw should guarantee at least a quarterfinal run. If not, there could be more questions about Murray’s future.
Rafael Nadal
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It’s hard to believe it’s been four years since Nadal won his eighth straight—and final—title at Monte Carlo. And if the Spanish legend is going to be a championship contender over the next two months, he might have to turn back the clock to how he rebounded in 2012.
Then, Nadal had lost seven straight finals matches to rival Djokovic. But he shattered the losing streak with a 6-3, 6-1 win at Monte Carlo that led to titles in Rome and at Roland Garros. He asserted his dominance in a big way.
It’s going to take that kind of effort and winning result if he is to add another stint to being the king of clay. Realistically, Nadal is four years older and has fallen off for nearly the last two years. Of equal concern, Djokovic is far more imposing and confident, and he has been merciless in beating down Nadal. Six straight wins, all in straight sets, will be a lot for Nadal to overcome.
Besides, Nadal has to get through the likes of Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray before even thinking about Djokovic. Does he have enough for a few more glorious titles? It’s now or never for the Spaniard with a two-month window of opportunity.
Novak Djokovic
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When once it was impossible to break through Nadal’s dynasty at Monte Carlo, Djokovic is now the favorite for taking his third title here in four years. He would love nothing more than a similar turnaround for the French Open.
And really, Monte Carlo, Madrid (which he may skip) and Rome are only consolation prizes to the French Open. Nothing else really matters to the world No. 1.
Let’s see if one of the other top stars or a surprise player can challenge hiim right now. Otherwise, see you next week for another Djokovic title recap in our Monte Carlo “Winners and Losers” column.
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