Expert Consensus NFL Rookie Award Predictions

A new day has dawned across the National Football League.

With the culmination of last week's 2016 NFL draft, we now know where this year's crop of incoming rookies will begin their professional careers.

We know Cal's Jared Goff is the odds-on favorite to start at quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1.

We know Ohio State's Joey Bosa will be chasing down signal-callers as a member of the San Diego Chargers.

And we know fellow Buckeye Ezekiel Elliott will be toting the rock for the Dallas Cowboys.

What we don't know is how these players (or any of the other rookies) will fare in their first season in the NFL.

Will Goff be more Andrew Luck or Ryan Leaf? Will Bosa channel Jevon Kearse or Barkevious Mingo? Will Elliott roll like Todd Gurley or fall flat like Trent Richardson?

Of course, just because we don't know the answers doesn't mean we can't speculate.

And that's just what we're going to do. The members of the NFL brain trust here at Bleacher Report have gathered together to offer their takes on which newcomers will shine brightest in 2016.

Here's what they had to say.

Most Passing Yards

Damian Dovarganes/Associated Press

Winner: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (6 votes) 

When the Rams and Philadelphia Eagles made trades to move up to the top two picks in this year's draft, it became clear that the first two selections were going to be quarterbacks.

Teams don't mortgage their futures to draft a defensive back or offensive tackle.

However, whereas No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz has to contend with surly Sam Bradford on the depth chart in Philadelphia, the only thing standing between Jared Goff and the starting gig in La-La Land is the immortal Case Keenum.

In fact, Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com thinks Goff is the only one of this year's incoming quarterbacks who will be on the field for his team in Week 1:

"

More than one quarterback in this draft is capable of starting immediately, and injuries could always change the equation. But the player/team matches suggest that only Jared Goff, who went No. 1 overall, will enter the season atop his team's depth chart. ...

Think about it. The Philadelphia Eagles have 34 million reasons (via money guaranteed to Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel) to avoid rushing Carson Wentz. The Denver Broncos will have Mark Sanchez at their disposal while they teach Paxton Lynch how to take a snap from center.

The New York Jets still are trying to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick, but even if they move on, they could start Geno Smith or Bryce Petty while rebuilding Christian Hackenberg's mechanics and confidence. Connor Cook could have competed for a starting job with some teams, but after falling to the Oakland Raiders in the fourth round, he's destined to back up Derek Carr.

"

Now, does this mean Goff will wind up being the best quarterback to come from the 2016 class? Hardly. A case can be made that Wentz is the more talented prospect and that the supporting cast in Philly is better than the one in L.A.

There are those who believe Lynch has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this year's crop, and it's hard to deny he won the landing-spot lottery when the world champs took him late in Round 1.

But the question here isn't which of these young passers will be the best. It's which one will throw for the most yards in 2016.

And given the immediate opportunity to start that's in front of him, Goff's an easy call.

Others receiving votes: Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos (1 vote); Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote)

Most Rushing Yards

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Winner: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (8 votes)

The NFL record for rushing yards by a rookie is 1,808, set by Eric Dickerson of the Los Angeles Rams in 1983.

Odds of that record falling anytime soon aren't great. It took Dickerson 390 carries to reach those lofty heights. NFL teams are loathe to give any back that many attempts in a season nowadays—let alone a first-year player.

The Cowboys' rookie rushing record is 1,007 yards, set by the great Tony Dorsett all the way back in 1977.

And that record, folks, is in serious trouble.

Not since the Cleveland Browns wasted the No. 3 pick on Trent Richardson in 2012 has a back gone in the top five. In fact, no back has come closer than Gurley, who was taken at No. 10 a year ago.

That streak is over thanks to the Cowboys' selection of Ezekiel Elliott at fourth overall last week.

As Will Brinson of CBSSports.com wrote, it's a fit that appears tailor-made for instant impact—the draft's most talented running back playing behind arguably the NFL's best offensive line:

"

Hard to imagine a better situation for the hyper-talented running back out of Ohio State. He landed with Dallas as the No. 4 overall pick, which means he's starting out of the gate, which means he's getting tons of carries behind what could very well be the best offensive line in football.

In 2014, Dallas dominated because DeMarco Murray ran the ball well behind that line. In 2015 the Cowboys struggled due to injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, but the running game wasn't great either. Elliott will fix that, and he's worth where he was picked -- he's a three-down back with underrated hands and is an exceptional pass protector. That's critical for Romo's health as well.

"

In Elliott, the Cowboys have a 225-pound dynamo who can do it all—pick up yardage between the tackles, take it around the edge, catch the ball out of the backfield, pass protect and even make a fashion statement.

In turn, Elliott gets to ply his trade behind a line that ranked sixth in the NFL last year in run blocking, per Football Outsiders. The year before, when Murray led the NFL in rushing, no line in the league was better at opening holes.

You know, come to think of it, maybe Dickerson's record is in more trouble than I thought.

Most Receiving Yards

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Winner: Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Redskins (3 votes)

Given that this was a draft with no clear-cut No. 1 prospect at the wide receiver position, it isn't at all surprising that there's no consensus among our panelists as to which one will have the most rookie success.

Five young receivers received votes, but only two got more than one.

One, Baylor's Corey Coleman, was the first player at his position off the board when the Browns selected him at No. 15. It was a pick that drew kudos from NFL.com's Mike Mayock:

"

He's a dynamic playmaker. Think Percy Harvin, that's the kind of playmaker that he is. He has a quick start and explosive speed. The only key for him is that he hasn't run a route tree. You will have to manufacture touches for him as he learns the route tree. He's special with the football in his hands.

"

From an opportunity standpoint, it's easy to like Coleman's chances. All it takes is a quick look at Cleveland's depth chart (and the results of Josh Gordon's last drug test) to see why Coleman is a good bet to lead all rookie pass-catchers in yards this year.

As Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reported, Coleman stated "the sky's the limit" for the Browns.

Give him a few months in Cleveland. That hope will be scrubbed right out of him.

But it wasn't Coleman who won our vote. That honor went to TCU's Josh Doctson, whom the Washington Redskins selected at No. 22.

Given the Redskins' needs at other positions and relative depth at wideout, the pick raised a few eyebrows. However, Washington general manager Scot McCloughan told Liz Clarke of the Washington Post that it was an easy call to make.

"Now you guys understand what I preach about: I’m sure none of you thought we’d pick a receiver, because we’ve got depth. But that was the best football player on the board. ... He’s very, very talented, but also the [quality] person. It was a slam dunk," he said.

Both of Washington's 2015 starters (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon) are entering contract years, but three of our writers see this move as more than just a look to the future.

They apparently feel that future is now.

Others receiving votes: Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns (2 votes); Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (1 vote); Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans (1 vote); Laquon Treadwell, WR, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote)

Most Tackles

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Winner: Reggie Ragland, ILB, Buffalo Bills (4 votes)

When the Buffalo Bills went on the clock with the 19th pick in the 2016 NFL draft, many pundits believed the team would address a pass rush that greatly underperformed in 2015. Sure enough,​ it did, selecting Clemson edge​-​rusher Shaq Lawson.

As Mike Rodak of ESPN.com wrote, Buffalo general manager Doug Whaley also considered Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland in that spot. When the first round came and went without Ragland hearing his name, Whaley hit the phones—calling every team from Cleveland (No. 32) right on down the line in an effort to swing a trade.

The Bills found a taker at No. 41 in the Chicago Bears, and Whaley got his thumping inside presence to pair with athletic youngsters Preston Brown and Zach Brown. Per Rodak, Whaley isn't buying the belief that Ragland's size will limit him to a base-defense role in the NFL:

"

Weighing in at 247 pounds at February's combine, Ragland is considered a heavier, run-stopping linebacker. However, Whaley believes Ragland has potential to stay on the field on third downs to contribute in pass coverage. "He's athletic," Whaley said. "Don't let the size fool you." Ragland will step in Day 1 next to middle linebacker Preston Brown, Whaley added.

"

Frankly, it's the $64 question with Ragland—the question that will determine whether he plays in sub-​packages: Can he cover?

If you can even call them sub-​packages anymore. ​In today's pass-wacky NFL,​ the nickel has become the de facto base set for many NFL teams. And linebackers who can't hold their own in coverage are big liabilities in that regard. The perception that Ragland can't do so is one of the factors ​that led to his dropping into Day 2.

Zach Brown's strengths ​are​ his range and speed, but if Ragland can show the Bills he has the range to go with his physicality and instincts​,​ he's going to have a dirty jersey in 2016.

And our voters expect him to do just that.

Others receiving votes: Darron Lee, LB, New York Jets (2 votes); Keanu Neal, S, Atlanta Falcons (2 votes)

Most Sacks

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Winner: Shaq Lawson, DE/OLB, Buffalo Bills (3 votes)

Some positions are harder than others when it comes to making the jump from college to the NFL. And pass-rusher may well be the hardest of all. The linemen are bigger. Stronger. Experienced. That one move that always worked in the Pac-12 gets you pancaked in the AFC West.

For every Aldon Smith who makes an immediate impact, there are 10 youngsters who don't.

It can make pegging a rookie sacks king a difficult task. And it was a close vote, with three different players tabbed by multiple writers.

If our panel is correct, Doug Whaley's going to feel pretty darn good about himself come January. Perhaps a raise will be in order. Maybe even the Bigfoot of NFL happenings (people say they've seen it, but no one has proof)...

A trip to the playoffs for the Bills.

As I stated earlier, Whaley and the Bills settled on Clemson edge-rusher Shaq Lawson, who had 12.5 sacks during the Tigers' march to the championship game last year, with the 19th overall pick. And make no mistake—the Bills used a first-rounder on Lawson because of his ability to collapse the pocket.

However, as Lawson told Kenneth Arthur of Rolling Stone before the draft, he wants to be known as more than a just a master of sacks:

"

I feel like I've been doing it all my life. Since I started my career, I've always been a great pass rusher and a run stopper. When I'm on my game, I can't let the man in front of me beat me. That's how I think. So I'm pretty much gonna do what I gotta do, whether it's a pass play to get to the quarterback or a run play to stop him behind the line of scrimmage.

"

It's an admirable attitude, but let's be frank. The Bills didn't draft Lawson and Ohio State's Adolphus Washington because they can get after it against the run. That's why they traded up for Ragland.

They drafted those youngsters because, while the Bills possess a deep, talented secondary, that secondary was put in an untenable position far too often last year—left swinging in the breeze because of the team's inability to generate pressure on the quarterback.

Lawson's addition should go a long way toward fixing that.

Others receiving votes: DeForest Buckner, DE, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes); Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes); Joey Bosa, DE/OLB, San Diego Chargers (1 vote)

Most Interceptions

Ray Thompson/Associated Press

Winner: Karl Joseph, S, Oakland Raiders (4 votes)

During his two stints with the Oakland Raiders, Charles Woodson was one of the NFL's pre-eminent ball hawks. Woodson intercepted 28 passes and forced 13 fumbles during his time with the Silver and Black.

Woodson's gone now, but it looks like some of our experts expect the void his talent for takeaways left to be filled by the player the Raiders tabbed to replace him.

Mind you, West Virginia safety Karl Joseph has plenty of his own talent. Oakland general manager Reggie McKenzie thought enough of Joseph to make him the 14th overall selection of the 2016 draft.

And while Mike Mayock of NFL.com didn't evoke Woodson when describing the 5'10", 205-pound Joseph's skill set, he did mention a number of past and present NFL stars with penchants for making big plays.

"With his range, toughness and ability to drop down in the slot and cover man, he's like a poor man's Earl Thomas," Mayock said. "He says he models his game after Brian Dawkins. Some say he's much like Bob Sanders. This is a dynamic playmaker."

Joseph told Eddie Paskal of the team's website that he isn't about to shy from the expectations that come with his status as a first-round selection:

"

I’m a dog. I’m sure all the coaching staff will tell you that. I think I play with that intensity. I play with a chip on my shoulder. I’m very confident in myself and I play with a deep passion and love for the game. I don’t think there’s anybody else in the draft that plays with more passion than me.

"

The writers here at Bleacher Report expect Joseph to live up to that first-round billing as well, but matching last year's rookie leader in interceptions will be a tall task.

Marcus Peters of the Kansas City Chiefs didn't just lead all first-year players in interceptions—he tied for the NFL lead with eight.

Others receiving votes: Jalen Ramsey, DB, Jacksonville Jaguars (2 votes); Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote); Artie Burns, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote)

Biggest Flop

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

"Winner": Christian Hackenberg, QB, New York Jets (3 votes) 

OK, before fans of the New York Jets head to the comments section to make with the invectives, for the record, I didn't vote for the newest signal-caller for Gang Green. I cast my vote for Jared Goff. So it's Rams fans who should call me names.

With that said, though, I don't have a strong argument against picking Christian Hackenberg as the rookie most likely to fall flat on his face in 2016.

This is a quarterback who completed 53.5 percent of his passes last year at Penn State. A player who seemingly got worse every season in Happy Valley.

When it appears your quarterback peaked in 12th grade, this is, um, not good.

And Hackenberg didn't get drafted by just any team. He won't be sitting on the bench in Oakland like Connor Cook. Or backing up Blake Bortles in Jacksonville like Brandon Allen.

No, Hackenberg will be entering an uncertain situation under center in New York. The Big Apple. The same media meat grinder that just chewed up and spit out Geno Smith.

Granted, the player and team are saying all the right things. General manager Mike Maccagnan dismissed Hackenberg's collegiate struggles, telling Rich Cimini of ESPN.com, "I think with a lot of players in general, you look at the parts and the pieces of the player."

Head coach Todd Bowles echoed those sentiments: "We feel we got a good player, and we're going to work with him to become a better player," per Cimini.

And Hackenberg, for his part, tweeted that he was on "cloud nine" after being drafted by the Jets.

It's simple, really.

The amount of time Hackenberg spends on the field this year is directly proportionate to the chances our pundits are right about him.

And you can't argue with math.

Others receiving votes: Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams (1 vote); Joey Bosa, DE/OLB, San Diego Chargers (1 vote); Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote); Artie Burns, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote); Paxton Lynch, QB, Denver Broncos (1 vote)

Surprise Star

Associated Press

Winner: Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants (3 votes)

You know, it wouldn't exactly be uncharted territory for a wide receiver for the New York Giants to surpass expectations in his rookie season.

OK, so maybe Victor Cruz wasn't technically a rookie when he exploded for 1,536 receiving yards back in 2011.

However, Odell Beckham Jr. most assuredly was when he went on a 12-game rampage two years ago. A rampage that hasn't really stopped since.

Yes, Beckham was a first-round pick. But no one expected him to become arguably the NFL's best wideout from the moment he stepped on the field.

The Giants took steps to give Beckham a new running mate on the second day of the 2016 NFL draft, selecting Oklahoma's Sterling Shepard at No. 40.

It was a pick that drew raves from Dan Graziano of ESPN.com:

"

I'm a sucker for dudes with piles and piles of really good college tape. Shepard had combined totals of 137 catches for 2,258 yards and 16 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Oklahoma. He got better every year. Giants scouting director Marc Ross said he was a guy who'd been making an impression for years -- that he always came away from Oklahoma games impressed, and not just during Shepard's senior year when they were looking at him for this year's draft. Yes, he's 5-foot-10, 194 pounds, but wide receivers can play bigger than their size, and everything about Shepard says he does.

"

Shepard is, in many respects, a Cruz clone—maybe a bit undersized but a young receiver who can more than compensate for a lack of length with speed and quickness.

In a perfect world, that would present the Giants with a problem as they try to figure out how to best utilize two players with similar skill sets.

This isn't a perfect world, though. We've reached the point where anything the Giants get from Cruz is a bonus. Sure, Cruz proclaimed himself Cruz 100 percent just before the draft, but it's been a long time since he saw meaningful game action.

And if Cruz can't return and Shepard is asked to step into that role....

Well, we've seen what Eli Manning can do with a dangerous slot guy. 

Others receiving votes: Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins (2 votes); Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote); Demarcus Robinson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote); Any Browns rookie (1 vote) 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Winner: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys (8 votes)

Last year, Todd Gurley of the then-St. Louis Rams brought home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. It was something of a rarity. Only three of the last 10 OROY have been running backs.

Blame the quarterbacks. Glory hogs.

This year, Ezekiel Elliott is the overwhelming favorite to make it four since 2007.

You can debate the wisdom of the Cowboys drafting a running back over a pass-rusher or a defensive back until the proverbial cows come home.

What you can't debate is that Elliott appears to be a perfect fit behind a dominant offensive line for a team that pounded away on the ground early and often en route to a playoff trip two years ago.

Talent plus opportunity equals production. It's that equation that has fantasy football experts like Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports' Roto Arcade positively drooling over Elliott's prospects:

"

When you think of monsters images of fang-bearing vampires, bloodthirsty zombies and ax-wielding psychos are immediately conjured. Soon, Elliott will trigger similar nightmares. The Ohio St. product is about to terrorize the league. He’s a do-it-all, three-down workhorse, a rusher some scouts have called the most complete back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. Believe it or not, that high praise is appropriate. The 6-foot, 225-pound stallion left Ohio St. after averaging a school-record 6.7 yards per carry in three years. He’s fast (4.47 40-yard dash), brutalizing between the tackles (57.4 YAC% in ’15), deceptively elusive (18.5 missed-tackle rate in ’15), sure-handed as a receiver, durable and an exceptional pass blocker.

"

And I'm not going to argue with one little bit of that. Elliott is a top-10 fantasy running back from the moment he carries the ball for the first time as a pro. He's a legitimate first-round draft pick in 12-team leagues.

Assuming he can stay healthy (durability was never a concern at Ohio State), it isn't just a matter of whether Elliott will be the OROY.

The only question will be if the vote is as unanimous in January as it is in May.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Winner: DeForest Buckner, DE, San Francisco 49ers (3 votes)

On one hand, the San Francisco 49ers would love to see defensive end DeForest Buckner garner Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. It's especially true when you consider that the 49ers have used a first- or second-round pick on the position three times in the past four drafts.

In fact, the 49ers have selected a lineman from Oregon in Round 1 two years in a row, with Buckner following in the footsteps of Arik Armstead.

Of course, the fact that San Fran keeps going back to the well tells you how much luck it's had to date.

However, in the opinion of Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson, this year is going to be different. Not only does Monson think the 49ers "hit" with the Buckner pick, but he also believes San Francisco may have gotten the best player in the entire draft...

At any position:

"

Buckner posted 67 total defensive pressures over the season which was nine more than any other interior player, and 17 more than Leonard Williams managed a year ago. Even when you add edge rushers to the mix that figure is still only bettered by three players this season, one of whom is Bosa.

The word that leaped out at me when I was watching Oregon games a year ago and hasn’t changed is “active.” He is a consistent thorn in an offense’s side even if he isn’t necessarily the most explosive pass-rusher you will come across. ...

Buckner has the kind of speed and quick power at the line he is often accused of lacking, enough to leave offensive linemen swinging at nothing as he slips past them. He isn’t necessarily the most fluid and natural athlete, but he has the ability to beat players quickly and cause problems.

"

If anything, Buckner is a victim of unreasonable expectations. In the age of J.J. Watt, all 3-4 ends are compared to the Houston Texans star. It's like being mad at Captain America because he can't fly like Thor.

He'll still kick your tail.

And so will Buckner. Comparisons between him and Calais Campbell of the Arizona Cardinals are valid. Campbell isn't a ball of fire around the edge. The eight-year veteran has never logged double-digit sacks in a season.

Buckner might not either, especially right away. But he's vicious against the run, and you don't have to actually sack the quarterback to affect the passing game.

There's a flip side to a DROY season for the 49ers, though...

The last time the team saw a defensive rookie explode into prominence, that player (Chris Borland) walked away from the game after one magical year.

I'm guessing that's a risk the team will take if it means finally getting it right on the defensive line.

Others receiving votes: Keanu Neal, S, Atlanta Falcons (2 votes); Darron Lee, LB, New York Jets (1 vote); Sheldon Rankins, DL, New Orleans Saints (1 vote); Reggie Ragland, LB, Buffalo Bills (1 vote)

Rookie of the Year

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Winner: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys (all the votes)

Twenty carries, 220 yards, two touchdowns.

Twenty carries, 230 yards, two touchdowns.

Thirty-six carries, 246 yards, four touchdowns.

Twenty-seven carries, 149 yards, four touchdowns.

Those are Ezekiel Elliott's game totals from the three-game run to the national championship in 2014 (Wisconsin, Alabama, Oregon) and the Fiesta Bowl win over Notre Dame in January 2016.

These stat lines didn't come against the likes of Western Michigan or Indiana, either. Eight defenders from those opponents went on to be selected on the first two days of the past two drafts.

Two years ago, while Elliott was steamrolling his way to a championship, DeMarco Murray was grinding out 1,845 yards on the ground for the Cowboys.

And NFL.com's Mike Mayock made no bones about it—Elliott's better: "A couple years ago DeMarco Murray carried the football 449 times, had 2,200 yards, and I think Elliott is a better football player. You plug him in there behind an offensive line that's in their prime, and you take a ton of pressure off a 36-year-old Tony Romo."

It's a perfect storm. A supremely talented young running back put in an ideal situation.

The table is set. Now, all Elliott has to do is eat.

And Elliott likes to eat.