Predicting the Biggest Changes in College Basketball in 2016-17

When is it too early to start thinking about the next college basketball season? How about never.

The sweat is barely dry on Jim Nantz's tie, and here we are looking ahead. It's just the nature of the beast, one supposes, especially given the rapid turnover inherent in today's college hoops world, not to mention the larger society and its fickle entertainment preferences.

With all of these issues in mind, let us now turn our gaze, free of shame or self-consciousness, toward the 2016-17 college basketball campaign. What changes might await us? Here are some predictions.

Duke Is Back on Top

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Harry Giles

I mean, did you see the McDonald's All-American Game?

All that Duke's blue-chip recruits did in that game was score 37 combined points—19 for co-MVP Frank Jackson and an East team-leading 18 for Jayson Tatum.

And that's to say nothing of forward Harry Giles, the nation's top overall recruit who had to sit out the game thanks to a torn ACL. 

Add in the fact that guard Grayson Allen is set to return, and the Duke machine we all know and love so dear will be back at full bore and atop the charts next season. 

More Reffing Around the Rim

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DENVER, CO - MARCH 17: Lis Shoshi #12 of the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans dunks the ball over Caleb Swanigan #50 of the Purdue Boilermakers during the first round of the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at the Pepsi Center on March 17, 2016 in Denve

By and large, the new rules for 2015-16 seemed to work. The 30-second shot clock, fewer team timeouts and generally calling more touch fouls to allow more "freedom of movement" for ball-handlers resulted in an increase in both points and possessions. 

And yet, there's a but.

Fouls per possession didn't experience the big rise that one might have expected given that more of them were being called in the name of freedom. 

The culprit? According to Dan Gavitt, the NCAA's vice president of men's basketball, the problem is that post play is still not properly regulated. 

"As I watch games, and I've watched a lot over the past 10 days, I still see on average anywhere from two to four fouls that are not being called," Gavitt said in an interview with Matt Norlander of CBS Sports. "In almost every case they're in the low post or are fouls committed off the ball with cutters getting chucked."

There probably won't be another major tweak, but you could see the refs focusing more heavily on the frontcourt next season.

Scoring Will Keep Going Up

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California's Jaylen Brown goes in for a dunk.

As Jon Solomon of CBS Sports lays out, there were marked increases in points, possessions and field-goal percentage last season:

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The NCAA's rules changes worked. The shot clock was shortened from 35 to 30 seconds, officials were instructed to emphasize cracking down on physical defenders for a more free-flowing offense, defenders can no longer get a five-second call against a dribbler, and the number of timeouts that can be called got reduced....Players are adjusting. That doesn't mean improvements to the game aren't still needed. But it's a more attractive game. It's a game that better rewards dribbling, shooting and running instead of clutching, grabbing and stalling.

"

The last slide illustrated one improvement that might be needed. Paying more attention to defenders who interfere with or chuck cutters away from the ball could be another. 

This is all fine-tuning, though. The broad strokes are in place and working, and as players, coaches and referees continue to get the hang of the new game, the upward scoring trends should continue.

The Three Is Here to Stay

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Buddy Hield (right)

Sharpshooting talents like Buddy Hield only come along so often. Entire teams that make nearly half their threes, as Hield's Oklahoma Sooners did last season, are even rarer.

Even so, the horse is out of the metaphorical barn when it comes to the long ball, and not just because the Sooners long-balled their way to the Final Four, either.

In 2015-16, approximately one-third of the field-goal attempts in college basketball were three-pointers. That's a high number. An all-time high kind of number.

With the three-pointer's proven success in college—not to mention that Steph Curry guy leading a similar renaissance at the next level—the two-point field goal is going become even more of a relic, no matter what the curmudgeons have to say about it.

No Repeat for Villanova

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Kris Jenkins (right) embraces coach Jay Wright.

Villanova earned its title by blue-collaring its way through a difficult draw that culminated with a buzzer-beater that will surely have Christian Laettner-level staying power on the sport's highlight reels. 

No one can or should take that away from the champs. But fans shouldn't expect it to happen again next season.

Senior bookend leaders Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu are both gone. Standouts Josh Hart and the buzzer-beater Kris Jenkins are both set to test the NBA waters. 

And if that wasn't enough, coach Jay Wright won't rule out overtures from the NBA. 

It's possible that Wright, Hart and Jenkins will be back in Philly next season, alongside point guard Jalen Brunson and the rest of the cast. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it, unless I had 10 or 12 farms lying around.

But even granting that, given the loss of the two seniors—collectively representing the team's top rebounder, top assist man and two of the top four scorers—this will be a diminished group when the first ball tips in 2016-17.