Odds for Each Major Basketball Conference Champ to Repeat in 2016-17

Winning a conference championship does not bring as much glory as reaching the NCAA tournament's Final Four, but it may be a better indicator of a team's ability than a single-elimination tournament. Winning titles in consecutive seasons further demonstrates the strength of a program and its coach.

Repeating as a champion in a major conference is more difficult than it was a few decades ago, when there was less change from year to year. These days, with players turning pro after one or two years, freshmen having a major impact and the number of transfers increasing every year, continuity and perennial success are more difficult.

Only four of the nine major conferences had a repeat regular-season champion this season, and that includes Kentucky, which shared the Southeastern Conference title with Texas A&M.

We take a look at the regular-season champions in the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Pac-12, Big 12, Big Ten, Southeastern and American conferences and try to determine the odds of them repeating as conference champs next season. Not only did we take into account the talent those teams will have in terms of returning players and key additions, but we considered the capabilities of other teams in their conferences.

The source for the teams' 2016 recruiting-class ranking is 247Sports.com, primarily because it is one of the few major sites that offer a ranking for all teams, not just the Top 25 or Top 40. Rankings provided by Rivals.com, Scout.com and ESPN.com were also considered when relevant. Information is based on news through April 10, 2016.

ACC: North Carolina

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2015-16 conference record: 14-4 (won by one game)

Starters returning: 3

Impact transfers: None

2016 recruiting class rank: 11

North Carolina will have a difficult time matching its 2015-16 success after winning both the ACC regular-season and tournament titles and coming agonizingly close to adding the national championship.

The Tar Heels will lose two major components of that team: first-team Associated Press All-America forward Brice Johnson and guard Marcus Paige, a four-year starter. It seems unlikely that any other North Carolina players will declare for the NBA draft, which will leave the Tar Heels with three returning starters: athletic small forward Justin Jackson, imposing but inconsistent power forward Kennedy Meeks and point guard Joel Berry II, who was outstanding in the national championship game with 20 points and four assists but suffered a foot injury that left him on crutches the next day.

Key reserves Isaiah Hicks and Nate Britt figure to step into the slots vacated by Johnson and Paige, respectively, and defensive ace Theo Pinson should get increased playing time.

The most important addition will be 6'10" McDonald's All American Tony Bradley, the highest-rated member of a North Carolina recruiting class ranked among the top 10 in the nation by ESPN.com, Scout.com and Rivals.com.

The prospect of NCAA sanctions continues to hover over the program, and it is unclear how much longer 65-year-old coach Roy Williams will coach.

Nonetheless, the Tar Heels may have enough talent and experience to have a Top 10 team again. The problem is that several ACC teams will be improved, while the Tar Heels may take a small step back.

Duke returns Grayson Allen and adds a recruiting class ranked first or second in the nation by virtually every recruiting site, making the Blue Devils look like national title contenders. Virginia loses Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill, but its returning talent, a recruiting class ranked eighth by 247Sports.com, the addition of Memphis transfer Austin Nichols and the Tony Bennett system will make the Cavaliers a factor again. Louisville has enough returning talent, plus the addition of Pennsylvania transfer Tony Hicks, to be an ACC contender as well. 

Odds: 8-1

Big East: Villanova

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2015-16 conference record: 16-2 (won by two games)

Starters returning: 3

Impact transfers: Eric Paschall (Fordham)

2016 recruiting class rank: 46 

After winning the national championship and beating two No. 1 seeds along the way, Villanova can't go anywhere but down next season. The loss of guard Ryan Arcidiacono and center Daniel Ochefu will hurt, but the return of Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and Kris Jenkins will provide the basis for another perimeter-oriented team that will fit Jay Wright's system perfectly.  

Brunson will be the undisputed point guard as a sophomore after sharing that role with Arcidiacono as a freshman, and the versatile Hart was the team's top scorer and its only first-team all-conference selection this year. Jenkins, the hero of the national title game, will continue to create matchup problems from the power forward spot because of his ability to hit from long range. Forward Darryl Reynolds and NCAA finals star Phil Booth will see increased playing time and could be starters.

Freshman guard Donte DiVincenzo will be healthy after playing just eight games this season because of a foot injury, and the Wildcats will add forward Eric Paschall, who was the Atlantic 10 rookie of the year in 2015 before transferring to Villanova after last season.

The clutch leadership provided by Arcidiacono will be missed, but incoming 6'8" power forward Omari Spellman, ranked as the nation's No. 22 recruit by Rivals.com, may help partially fill the void left by Ochefu's absence.

The biggest problem may be the pro aspirations of Hart and Jenkins. Both will go through the NBA evaluation process, and Hart's pro status could be high enough to persuade him to enter the NBA draft this year. That might kill the Wildcats' chances of repeating as Big East champs.

The Big East will be strong next season. The two main obstacles will be Xavier, which finished second in the conference this year and will return four starters if star Trevon Bluiett does not turn pro, and Seton Hall, which beat Villanova in the Big East tournament finals and will return all five starters, assuming Isaiah Whitehead stays for another season.

Odds: 6-1

Atlantic 10: Dayton

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

2015-16 conference record: 16-2 (tied with VCU, St. Bonaventure)

Starters returning: 4

Impact transfers: Forward Josh Cunningham (Bradley)

2016 recruiting class rank: 104 

Dayton was chosen from among the three teams that tied for the conference title because it had the best NCAA tournament seed of the three (Dayton was seeded No. 7, VCU No. 10 and St. Bonaventure failed to make the field).

Based on the return of four starters, the Flyers look like the favorites to win the Atlantic 10 next season.

Scoochie Smith, Kyle Davis, Charles Cooke and forward Kendall Pollard return as seniors to give the Flyers the most talented and most experienced team in the conference. None of the four is likely to leave to join the NBA this year, and the only departure from this season's team is Dyshawn Pierre. That is a significant loss, because Pierre, a second-team all-conference selection, led the team in rebounding and was second in scoring. However, the Flyers went 9-2, including wins over Vanderbilt and Iowa, when Pierre missed the first 11 games this season.

Cooke is the team's star, however, leading the team in scoring and assists in his first season of competition with the Flyers after transferring from James Madison.

The one incoming freshman, guard Trey Landers, is unlikely to make a major impact next season, but Bradley transfer Josh Cunningham could help. According to the Dayton Daily News' David Jablonski, the 6'7" Cunningham claims to be healthy after a series of surgeries, and he could provide some answers at the small forward spot after averaging 7.9 points and 7.5 rebounds as a Bradley freshman in 2014-15.

Having Archie Miller as its coach is an asset for Dayton, which made sure he will be around for at least one more season by signing him to a contract extension after the season.

VCU, St. Bonaventure and NIT champion George Washington will lose more talent than the Flyers, and Atlantic 10 tournament champion St. Joseph's will feel the loss of conference player of the year DeAndre' Bembry, who is headed to the NBA.

Odds: 4-1

Mountain West: San Diego State

Kent Horner/Getty Images

2015-16 conference record: 16-2 (won by three games)

Starters returning: 3

Impact transfers: Forward Teki Gill-Caesar (Missouri), forward Max Hoetzel (Indiana)

2016 recruiting class rank: 92

Despite its recent tradition of getting multiple NCAA tournament bids, the Mountain West was not a strong conference this year. San Diego State won the regular-season conference title by three games but still did not earn a berth to the NCAA tournament after losing in the conference tournament.

The Aztecs should be better next season despite the loss of second-team all-conference selection Winston Shepard. The only other starter the Aztecs are sure to lose is center Skylar Spencer, whose rebounding and shot-blocking will be missed but who contributed little offensively.

The one uncertainty is whether freshman Malik Pope will turn pro, but even if he leaves, the Aztecs should have enough to repeat in a conference that has lost a lot of its luster.

The Aztecs will return three starters, including first-team all-conference pick Trey Kell and Mountain West freshman of the year Jeremy Hemsely. Powerful 6'6" Missouri transfer Teki Gill-Caesar is a good bet to slide into the small forward spot vacated by Shepard, and 6'9" Indiana transfer Max Hoetzel may provide the perimeter threat the Aztecs need.

The Aztecs did not add much in terms of impact recruits, but they may not need to. The Aztecs' success will always revolve around defense as long as Steve Fisher is the coach, and the 71-year-old has one more year left on a three-year contract he signed in 2014.

Although Boise State will return all-conference forward James Webb III and UNLV will have the best incoming recruiting class in the conference, no team in the Mountain West should expect to be appreciably better. 

Odds: 3-1

Big 12: Kansas

John Flavell/Associated Press

2015-16 conference record: 15-3 (won by two games)

Starters returning: 3

Impact transfers: Dwight Coleby (Mississippi)

2016 recruiting class rank: 43  

When a team loses its only first-team all-conference selection and one of its two second-team all-conference picks, a significant slide is expected, that is, unless that team is Kansas. Forward Perry Ellis, a two-time first-team all-Big 12 pick and the Jayhawks' leading scorer, has run out of eligibility. Swingman Wayne Selden Jr., the team's No. 2 scorer, will give up his final season of college eligibility to try his luck in the NBA.

It leaves Kansas with a nucleus of returning starters in Frank Mason III, Devonte' Graham and Landen Lucas. That does not sound like the starting point for a championship run in a conference as tough as the Big 12. However, the Jayhawks have won or shared 12 straight regular-season conference titles, and in some of those years Bill Self had less to work with than his projected 2016-17 roster.

The simple slogan to remember is this: Never count out the Jayhawks.

Kansas has several scholarships available, so it could still land a recruit who can help next year. McDonald's All American Josh Jackson, the No. 1-ranked recruit in the country, according to 247Sports.com, is considering Kansas and is expected to make a decision any day. Guard Rodney Pryor, who averaged 18.5 points and 8.0 rebounds for Robert Morris this past season, is taking a look at Kansas as a place he might want to spend his graduate-student season without having to sit out a year.

So far, though, the Jayhawks' incoming freshman class is underwhelming. At the moment, ESPN.com is the only recruiting service that ranks the Jayhawks' incoming group among the nation's top 25 recruiting classes. Udoka Azubuike, a 6'11" McDonald's All American, is Kansas' highest-rated incoming freshman, but no service rates him among the nation's top 20 recruits.

Dwight Coleby, a 6'9" transfer from Mississippi, might provide some assistance next season, but no one will confuse him with Ellis.

Self will have a lot of work to do to reshape next season's bunch into a title contender, but one thing working in the Jayhawks' favor is that the Big 12 may not be quite as potent next season as it was in 2015-16. All-American Buddy Hield is one of several key players Oklahoma will lose, and West Virginia is likely to lose its best two players, Jaysean Paige and Devin Williams. Standout forward Georges Niang was one of three departing senior starters on Iowa State's team this season, and Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers have played out their eligibility at Baylor.

A Texas team coached by Shaka Smart and led by guard Isaiah Taylor looks like the biggest challenge to the Jayhawks' bid for a 13th straight conference title.

Odds: 4-1 

Big Ten: Indiana

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

2015-16 conference record: 15-3 (won by two games)

Starters returning: 4

Impact transfers: G Josh Newkirk (Pittsburgh)

2016 recruiting class rank: 17

Thomas Bryant's decision to return to Indiana for his sophomore season immediately made the Hoosiers a candidate to repeat as Big Ten champ. The 6'10" Bryant and athletic 6'7" Troy Williams will lead a frontcourt that may be the best in the Big Ten, assuming Williams does not turn pro.

With Bryant in the fold, Indiana will bring back four starters as well as standout guard James Blackmon Jr., who missed most of the 2015-16 season after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in December. However, the Hoosiers' lone personnel loss was a big one: point guard Yogi Ferrell, a unanimous first-team all-conference selection in both the coaches and media polls. 

Assuming Blackmon is completely recovered from his injury, he can provide plenty of backcourt scoring, having averaged 15.7 points in 2014-15 as a freshman. Returning starter Robert Johnson and Pittsburgh transfer Josh Newkirk also could man the point guard spot effectively, assuming Johnson heals adequately from the ankle surgery he had recently.

A strong three-man recruiting class ranked as the 17th-best in the country could provide further frontcourt help in the form of power forward De'Ron Davis. The Hoosiers are also in the running for junior college prospect Freddie McSwain.

The Big Ten does not figure to be as strong next season, with Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State losing a number of key pieces and Ohio State having four freshmen transfer. The Spartans' strong recruiting class and Tom Izzo should keep them near the top despite the loss of Denzel Valentine, and if Nigel Hayes remains at Wisconsin for another year the Badgers will be a serious contender. Add Michigan to the mix if the Wolverines improve as expected with many of their best players returning. None of those teams looks to be any better than Indiana next season, although the depth of the conference makes it impossible for any team to be a heavy favorite. 

Odds: 7-1

Pac-12: Oregon

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

2015-16 conference record: 14-4 (won by one game)

Starters returning: 4

Impact transfers: None

2016 recruiting class rank: 16  

The Ducks this season won both the regular-season Pac-12 title and conference tournament and were a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament after being picked to finish fourth in the Pac-12. With as many as four starters back next season, Oregon probably will enter next season as the conference favorite.

Only one starter (all-conference selection Elgin Cook) and one key reserve (Dwayne Benjamin) are certain to be gone. All-conference forward Dillon Brooks and Chris Boucher have both indicated they are likely to return next season rather than enter the NBA draft, while Tyler Dorsey has made no commitment either way as he ponders whether to turn pro. 

Jordan Bell presumably will step into the spot vacated by Cook, and steady point guard Casey Benson will be back to lead the fast-paced attack directed by coach Dana Altman, whose reputation has improved to the point where he can be expected to create a Pac-12 title contender every year.

The key might be Dylan Ennis. He missed all but two games of the 2015-16 season with a foot injury after transferring from Villanova as a graduate student. But Oregon has petitioned the NCAA for a sixth season for Ennis, and if he returns to Eugene it would be a significant bonus.

The Ducks had another strong recruiting class, although none of the three recruits is expected to make a major impact. Altman often lands a transfer in the offseason, so the roster may not be complete.

The Ducks may have enough right now to repeat, although three teams will provide challenges. Arizona loses three starters but Allonzo Trier and an outstanding recruiting class will be available to Sean Miller, while USC returns basically the same team that earned an NCAA tournament berth this season. The wild card may be UCLA, which loses only Tony Parker and brings in two freshmen (Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf) who could have an immediate and major impact. 

Odds: 5-1

SEC: Kentucky

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

2015-16 conference record: 13-5 (tied with Texas A&M)

Starters returning: 1

Impact transfers: None

2016 recruiting class rank: 1 

Kentucky was selected as this season's SEC champ instead of Texas A&M, because the Wildcats won the conference tournament by beating the Aggies.

It will be the same old story for the Wildcats next season, as most of the key players are leaving for the NBA and a bunch of highly talented freshmen will come in to take their place. Relying so much on players untested at the collegiate level makes it difficult to gauge how good the Wildcats will be next season, but it is safe to say they will have enough talent to repeat.

Jamal Murray, Tyler Ulis, Skal Labissiere and Alex Poythress are gone from a team that was ranked No. 1 early in the season but had some ups and downs. Guard Isaiah Briscoe is the only starter returning, with Derek Willis and Marcus Lee also coming back. But the reason the Wildcats will be ranked in the Top 10 in next fall's preseason Associated Press poll is the addition of the No. 1 recruiting class in the country.

Point guard DeAaron Fox, shooting guard Malik Monk and power forward Bam Adebayo are expected to slip right into the fold as freshmen and become immediate stars. Sacha Killeya-Jones, a fourth McDonald's All American from the six-player recruiting class, could provide assistance as well. 

John Calipari's ability to get those high school stars to play defense and share the ball in their first collegiate season has been Kentucky's route to success. Of course, a band of highly touted freshmen does not always translate into championships. The 2012-13 Wildcats were ranked No. 3 in the preseason Associated Press poll based largely on their recruiting class, and that group did not even make it to the NCAA tournament.

A significant reason Kentucky might repeat is that the Southeastern Conference is not expected to be very strong next season. Texas A&M is likely to be the Wildcats' toughest challenger again, and the Aggies will lose four starters, including Danuel House and Jalen Jones. Nonetheless, picking a team with so much talent unproven at the collegiate level is always a bit risky.

Odds: 5-1 

American: Temple

Mary Altaffer/Associated Press

2015-16 conference record: 14-4 (won by one game)

Starters returning: 2

Impact transfers: None

2016 recruiting class rank: 82

Temple was one of the surprise teams in the country this season, winning the American Athletic Conference regular-season title after being picked to finish sixth. Duplicating that feat will be difficult next season, when the Owls will be without three of this season's starters, including all-AAC guard Quenton DeCosey.

A case could be made that Temple was not the best team in the conference this season despite its regular-season crown, as Connecticut and Cincinnati both received better seeds than Temple in the NCAA tournament. 

The two Temple players of note next season will be point guard Josh Brown and 6'9" forward Obi Enechionyia, an erratic player with loads of potential.

The incoming freshman class should not be expected to have a major impact, but the coaching of Fran Dunphy might. He routinely finds a way to make the most of the talent he has available. But even Dunphy will have trouble capturing a conference title in 2017.

Connecticut will probably be the AAC preseason favorite, with the return of Rodney Purvis and Amida Brimah, a significant transfer in Terry Larrier and a top-five recruiting class. Cincinnati will also contend with the return of guards Troy Caupain and Kevin Johnson and head coach Mick Cronin.

Odds: 12-1