SEC Football: Predicting the Biggest Upsets in the Conference in 2016
By now, you've read all of the "way-too-early" predictions for the 2016 SEC race.
You've heard all about Alabama earning the benefit of the doubt, LSU's impending return to SEC glory and Tennessee finally getting over the hump and making its first SEC Championship Game since 2007.
The unpredictable, though, is what makes this sport great.
Sometimes 18-to-22-year-old young men have bad days, coaches make mistakes and upsets happen. In this slideshow we predict the eight biggest upsets in SEC football based on talent, scheme, matchup and schedule placement.
Sept. 1: Vanderbilt over South Carolina
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Vanderbilt will host South Carolina to open the 2016 season on Thursday, Sept. 1, in what will be a coming out party for third-year Commodore head coach Derek Mason.
The 'Dores boast a stellar running back in Ralph Webb, who rushed for 1,152 yards last season in an offense that couldn't do anything through the air to take pressure off of him. They also boast a fantastic defense led by linebacker Zach Cunningham that finished fourth last season in the nation in red-zone touchdown defense (38.78 percent) and sixth in third down defense (28.16 percent), according to CFBStats.com.
It's not exactly the "same old Vanderbilt," but it will be a scary game for first-year South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp—who might be starting true freshman quarterback Brandon McIlwain right out of the gate.
It will be ugly. It will be old school. It will be a Vanderbilt win that could set the tone for a Commodore run back to a bowl game.
Sept. 17: Texas A&M over Auburn
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Since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, the road team in this matchup has won all four meetings.
That trend will continue in Week 3, when the Aggies topple the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium in a game that should feature two high-octane offenses.
The Aggie defensive front is loaded with defensive ends Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall and tackle Daylon Mack. That will stifle the multi-dimensional Auburn rushing attack, create pressure on the starting quarterback (John Franklin III, Jeremy Johnson or Sean White) and create multiple turnovers that the new-look offense led by coordinator Noel Mazzone will take advantage of.
That doesn't mean that Auburn won't be in it.
The Tigers boast a similar defensive front and if head coach Gus Malzahn makes the right call at quarterback, then they should be formidable offensively but not enough to hang in a shootout with head coach Kevin Sumlin's Aggies.
Sept. 24: Auburn over LSU
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Auburn has won six of its last eight home meetings with LSU with those two losses coming in sub-.500 seasons of 2008 and 2012. The last time these two met on the Plains, Auburn dismantled head coach Les Miles' crew 41-7 in a game that featured then-freshman quarterback Brandon Harris making a surprise start in place of Anthony Jennings.
A repeat of that blowout is a bit aggressive, but Auburn will shock LSU in a late-September game that could be big in determining which set of Tigers are the true contender in the SEC West.
Auburn's defensive front is loaded with end Carl Lawson, tackle Montravius Adams, defensive lineman Dontavius Russell and true freshman defensive lineman Marlon Davidson, who has been turning heads this spring according to Tom Green of the Opelika-Auburn News.
That front will slow down star LSU running back Leonard Fournette enough to put the game in the hands of Harris, who's 1-3 all time in conference road games.
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Oct. 15: Tennessee over Alabama
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For about 55 minutes in the "Third Saturday In October" rivalry last year, Tennessee looked like it would do the impossible.
The Vols, in Bryant-Denny Stadium against Alabama, had gone toe-to-toe with "Goliath" and held a slim lead late in the fourth quarter. But Jake Coker led the Tide down the field, Derrick Henry crossed the goal line and Vol quarterback Joshua Dobbs got bombarded with Alabama's pressure in the closing seconds in a 19-14 loss.
It was Tennessee's ninth straight loss to Alabama, but that streak won't reach double digits.
Tennessee is loaded on both sides of the ball, has the kind of offense that can stress Alabama's defense side-to-side and should have a more consistent passing game with sophomores Preston Williams and Jauan Jennings becoming more comfortable with the way the college game is played.
It'll be close, but Tennessee will hand Alabama its only loss of the regular season in the rivalry and could set up a whale of a rematch in the SEC Championship Game if the two hold serve elsewhere in the SEC.
Nov. 5: Arkansas over Florida
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Florida will play Georgia in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party on Halloween weekend, while Arkansas will be sitting at home waiting to turn a trick on the Gators.
With two weeks to prepare, Razorback head coach Bret Bielema will have plenty of time to game plan for a Gator team that, from a matchup perspective, is as similar to his own as any in the SEC. Nothing Florida does from an offensive standpoint will surprise Arkansas' defense, which features defensive lineman Deatrich Wise and linebackers Brooks Ellis and Dre Greenlaw.
That front seven will slow down the Gator rushing attack and force the quarterback (likely either Luke Del Rio or Austin Appleby) to win a tough game on the road. Arkansas' rushing attack should be cranked up to high gear by November.
The Hogs have gotten hot each of the last two Novembers, and they will do it again with a win over Florida on the first week of November in 2016.
Nov. 5: Mississippi State over Texas A&M
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Mississippi State is being overlooked now that star quarterback Dak Prescott has moved on to the NFL, but Dan Mullen's crew is still set up to shock a team or two in the SEC.
Texas A&M will be one of those teams.
The Aggies will head to the cowbell capital of the world, Starkville, Mississippi, on Nov. 5, and they will leave with a loss thanks to the ability of Mullen to stress defenses in a variety of ways.
By that point of the season, the Bulldog starting quarterback (likely dual-threat bruiser Nick Fitzgerald) will have plenty of game experience to fall back on. He will be familiar with multiple wide receivers other than star Fred Ross and a No. 1 running back should be entrenched.
All of those things will come together in this matchup and should help the Bulldogs win a wild shootout.
Nov. 12: Auburn over Georgia
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The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry between Auburn and Georgia routinely provides the college football world with some outstanding games, and this year's game should be no different.
Since the game is in Athens, Auburn is sort of a mess after last year's 7-6 debacle, and new Georgia head coach Kirby Smart should have figured out the intricacies of being a head coach by Week 11. This game looks like it should be a Bulldog win on paper.
That won't be the case.
Auburn's punishing multi-dimensional rushing attack, which should feature bruiser Jovon Robinson and dual-threat quarterback John Franklin III, will be hitting its stride. Georgia will struggle to stay disciplined against the tempo-based attack, and Auburn's deep defensive line will rattle whoever is starting at quarterback for the Bulldogs (likely Jacob Eason).
Nov. 24: Texas A&M over LSU
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Texas A&M's offense has been a shell of itself down the stretch over the last two seasons, which helped LSU top the Aggies in consecutive regular season finales.
That won't be the case this season.
The Aggies will be more balanced thanks to the presence of new offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and his spread/power attack, the eligibility of former Oklahoma running back Keith Ford to take pressure off of James White and a more physical approach in the trenches thanks to offensive line coach Jim Turner.
That offense will have success against LSU. They will put pressure on Tiger quarterback Brandon Harris to win a road game with his arm, which isn't going to happen.
Texas A&M will close the season out on a high note with a victory over their border rivals.
Quotes were obtained firsthand, unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of CFBStats.com, unless otherwise noted, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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