Ben Rothwell vs. Junior Dos Santos: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The heavyweight division is heating up leading into summer, and No. 4-ranked contender Ben Rothwell and No. 5-ranked Junior Dos Santos will meet in the main event of UFC Fight Night 86 on Sunday.
This five-round affair will play a key role in deciding who is next in line for a shot at the coveted UFC heavyweight title.
Rothwell (36-9) is riding a four-fight win streak with victories over Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett. Things have not been as rosy for the former champion. Dos Santos (17-4) dropped his last bout to Overeem by TKO.
JDS needs a victory to get back into the title picture, but another victorious outing from Rothwell may earn him the title shot he has long been after. This is just the first bout in a string of important heavyweight tilts that will clear up the murky waters in the division.
Who will come out on top in Zagreb, Croatia?
This is your look at the head-to-toe breakdown for Rothwell vs. JDS.
Striking
1 of 5
Cigano has not looked like the same fighter since Cain Velasquez beat him senseless in back-to-back fights for the UFC title, but he is still one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC.
Rothwell is dangerous in his own right, but no one is going to confuse him with a vicious, world-class striker. He is durable and has power. That is what makes him dangerous.
Ask Overeem.
JDS should have a substantial advantage on the feet. What sets him apart from Rothwell is the way he can manage distance. Dos Santos' jab should keep Rothwell on the outside, and that will set up power shots as he looks for the big finish.
I stress the word "should." JDS has been taking a lot of punishment in recent fights, and Rothwell has the durability to weather a storm in order to deal out his own brand of justice. If the former champion cannot establish a clear advantage on the feet against Rothwell, perhaps it will be time to remove him as an elite heavyweight.
Edge: Dos Santos
Grappling
2 of 5
The grappling in this fight is dead even. They both have underrated offensive grappling and solid defensive techniques.
But when forced to choose, I side with Rothwell in this matchup. Why?
I'm giving him the edge based on what he will have to do to get the win. He's more apt than the Brazilian to turn this into a grappling match, and one of the best chances he will have is timing a Dos Santos power shot in order to change levels.
Rothwell will be the more active grappler, and that gives him a slight edge in an even category.
Edge: Rothwell
Submissions
3 of 5
JDS is a good grappler in his own right and has a solid pedigree. But am I really going to discount Rothwell after he choked out Josh Barnett? No.
Rothwell is a top-tier submission specialist in this division. He doesn't get the notoriety, but the submission over Barnett speaks volumes. His unassuming nature is one of his biggest advantages. He lulls fighters into a false sense of security.
Cigano has to be mindful of Rothwell's chokes.
Rothwell will stand and trade, but as soon as he sees an opening, he goes for the submission. He has only been to a decision six times in his professional career, and 13 of his 36 victories have come via tapout.
Edge: Rothwell
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Dos Santos' X-Factor: What Left?
That's the biggest question around the lovable Brazilian. What does he have left?
He looked decent against Stipe Miocic, but he took a beating en route to that decision victory. He returned against Overeem and got put down on the canvas. He doesn't look as fast or durable as he once did, but that happens. There is only so much damage a fighter can take during his career before he begins to diminish.
This fight should give us an idea of what JDS has left in the tank. It's going to speak volumes about his pathway to another title.
Rothwell's X-Factor: Success on the Feet
Rothwell is going to have to exchange with Cigano. That is a dangerous proposition, but he has likely accepted it.
The American needs to have some success in the stand-up phase against the Brazilian powerhouse. Landing some clean shots will make JDS respect him on the feet and open up more grappling opportunities when he gets the Brazilian to react.
He cannot become one-dimensional against Cigano. The former champion will easily stuff obvious takedown attempts and can pick him apart on the feet if Rothwell cannot at least threaten with quality strikes. Early success is vital to Rothwell's chances.
Prediction
5 of 5
I don't feel great about picking the former champion, but that is what my heart is telling me to do.
JDS knows he may be nearing the end of the line if he loses to Rothwell, and as such he is going to fight smart. I don't foresee him getting into a big firefight against Rothwell when he can stick and move. In the early rounds, JDS will touch up Rothwell, slowly draining him of energy.
As Rothwell grows more and more desperate, Dos Santos will have a chance to assume top position on a stuffed takedown.
That will set the finish sequence in motion during the fourth round. A tired Rothwell won't be able to stop punches from getting through, and the referee will call a stop to the fight as JDS gets back into title contention before the summer begins.
Prediction: Dos Santos defeats Rothwell by TKO in the fourth round.
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