The Question at the Heart of Syracuse's Crazy Run: Are the Orange Lucky or Good?

HOUSTON — The elephant at the Final Four wears orange.

As satisfied as Syracuse is to be playing North Carolina on Saturday, some folks in the basketball world are asking: Should this No. 10 seed even be here? 

Head coach Jim Boeheim has maintained that he thought his team belonged. But he and his assistants gathered in their offices on Selection Sunday to see if they would get an invite to the NCAA tournament, and they were not certain it would happen.

The Orange were the final at-large bid announced on the CBS telecast, and had a leaked bracket not made its way into the world, Boeheim and his staff would have been sweating bullets.

Even the leaked bracket felt like it could be some kind of cruel joke.

"Until you see Syracuse come up," director of basketball operations Kip Wellman said, "you don't feel great."

The improbability of that day—Syracuse not only getting in but also not having to play in the First Four—was more unbelievable than the Final Four run. 

Because the latter was a possibility based on a great coach, talent and a system that lends itself to postseason success. 

But the ends doesn't justify the opportunity. Syracuse should have never been in the NCAA tournament field. 

As archaic as the RPI is—and it's about as out of touch as Grandma trying to find the Internet on her typewriter—it is a metric the NCAA selection committee relies heavily on. And that metric said the Orange were the 72nd-best team in the country, becoming the lowest-ranked RPI team ever to receive an at-large bid. That put 'Cuse right between IPFW and Alabama. 

So the question becomes: Is Syracuse good...or lucky?

The Good

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

To fit Boeheim for a slipper would be a misread of March and his program. 

"I don't know if we look at ourselves as Cinderella," senior Trevor Cooney said. "We're Syracuse. We're not normally a 10 seed, and we've proven that in this tournament."

Cooney is right on his first point, but he's mistaken when he says the Orange have proved they're not a 10 seed—unless, of course, he means they're more like an 11 or 12. 

Syracuse was mediocre throughout much of the year. The Orange lost 13 games and were 9-9 in ACC play. 

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

But when Syracuse won the Battle 4 Atlantis in November—knocking off NCAA tourney teams Connecticut and Texas A&M in the process—it suggested this team had ability. NBA scouts will tell you that freshmen Malachi Richardson and Tyler Lydon are future pros. They made 15 of 27 three-point attempts in the Bahamas. Senior guard Michael Gbinije may also play in the league, and Cooney is a good college shooting guard. 

Add in a rebounding machine in Tyler Roberson, and that's a solid nucleus for a college basketball team. Definitely NCAA tournament-caliber. 

But unlike most years, the Syracuse zone had been relatively easy to score against during the conference season. 

What has changed in the NCAA tournament is that the zone has become the beast we're used to seeing, and while Boeheim says his team hasn't played well offensively in the tournament yet, the numbers on both ends have been substantially better. 

	Off. Eff.	Def. Eff.
ACC play	104.8	102.0
NCAA tournament	110.4	89.2

Offensively, Syracuse hasn't shot it well, but it is shooting fewer threes and has been more aggressive going to the basket, which has led to more free throws and more offensive rebounds. 

Defensively, opponents are settling for more threes and shooting much worse inside the arc—40.3 percent compared to 51.8 percent during ACC play. 

"The Syracuse zone is very hard to prepare for in a tournament atmosphere," Wellman said. "I think sometimes players—and maybe even coaches—think, Well, we've played against a zone this year. We've seen it. But they've never seen a zone like ours. Guys think they're prepared for it and then you get in a game, and things that you think are going to be open or have been open for you during the regular season against teams that play zone, they're not open against us."

Boeheim has also unleashed a full-court press that was huge in comebacks over Gonzaga and Virginia. The Wahoos were 68-0 in games they led by double digits in the second half under coach Tony Bennett. They're a team that executes, especially late in games with a lead.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The press made their collars tighten. A team that is used to working for a good shot deep into the clock of every possession became indecisive about whether to try to attack to score or beat the press and then milk the clock.

And if you're a program that hasn't been to a Final Four in more than 30 years, that regional final is a pressure cooker. The pressure got to Virginia. But a comeback like the Orange pulled off is not possible without the other guys pulling off some plays as well. 

Syracuse's guys not only stepped up and hit big shots, but their quickness and length also played a part in the collapse.

"Some years, you know, you put your team in a press. I've done that. We got our ass beat," Boeheim said. "Some years you put them in a press and it works. It's a matter of the players."

The Lucky

In matters beyond Syracuse's control, good fortune found the Orange when No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee knocked off Michigan State in the opening round. 

"I've seen Michigan State play many times this year. I didn't think we could beat them," Boeheim told Dan Patrick on his radio show this past week. 

When comparing Syracuse's run to other Final Four teams seeded seventh or lower going back to George Mason's run in 2006, the Orange have definitely benefited more than any other team with the bracket breaking in their favor. 

Seed/Team/Year	Sum of seeds
11 George Mason, 2006	17
11 VCU, 2011	20
8 Butler, 2011	16
9 Wichita State, 2013	24
7 Connecticut, 2014	19
7 Michigan State, 2015	19
10 Syracuse, 2016	34

Knocking off top-seeded Virginia may have felt like vindication, but based on the numbers and accomplishment of each of those other low seeds in the regular season, Syracuse's Final Four run was more unlikely than everyone on the list outside of VCU.

Seed/Team/Year	RPI	KenPom
11 George Mason, 2006	26	22
11 VCU, 2011	49	78
8 Butler, 2011	33	45
9 Wichita State, 2013	23	17
7 Connecticut, 2014	22	25
7 Michigan State, 2015	23	17
10 Syracuse, 2016	72	43

The Verdict

So lucky or good?

As fortunate as Syracuse was to get in the tournament and avoid Michigan State, no team gets this far based entirely on luck.

There wasn't some magical transformative moment or genius tactical move by Boeheim.

"I laugh a little bit when they say, 'You really did a great coaching job this year,'" Boeheim said. "In other words, like I'm better this year than I was last year or two years ago. What am I doing better? What's that all about?"

In addition to being a Larry David clone, Boeheim's point is right on. (Seriously, can Larry David put a Syracuse windbreaker on and do his Bernie Sanders impersonation? That'd be Boeheim!) Boeheim isn't a great coach because this team made it to the Final Four. He was already a great coach, and his team is usually capable of playing until the last weekend. 

This team just happened to underachieve during the regular season and is overachieving now. 

Boeheim would be the goat had Selection Sunday gone differently, and this season would have been viewed as a failure. 

But instead, he's viewed as a genius, and this run will leave Syracuse fans with warm and fuzzies regardless of what happens this weekend.

As it should. 

There's no need for Syracuse or its coach to apologize for being in Houston. But Boeheim and his boys shouldn't puff their chests out and tell everyone that they belonged all along. 

They may have had it in them all this time, but they were lucky to get invited to dance.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @CJMooreBR.