Indiana Hoosiers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds, March Madness Pick

After upsetting the fourth-seeded Kentucky Wildcats in the second round, the fifth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers (27-7) will face a bigger challenge when they play the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (30-6) in an East Region Sweet 16 matchup Friday. The Hoosiers are underdogs versus the Tar Heels, but have won three of the past four meetings, going 4-0 against the spread.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 158.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness pick, via Odds Shark computer: 72.2-68.6 Tar Heels

Why pick Indiana to cover the spread

Indiana has won seven of its last eight games, going 6-2 ATS, with the lone loss coming in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament against the Michigan Wolverines. That victory for the Wolverines got them into the NCAA tournament while the Hoosiers took a lot of criticism for falling so early as the top seed. But it might have worked out for the best, giving Indiana extra rest and time to prepare for the Big Dance.

While the Hoosiers have not won in the Sweet 16 since 2002, when they made it all the way to the national title game, head coach Tom Crean has also been here before with the Marquette Golden Eagles, taking them to the Final Four with Dwyane Wade in 2003.

Why pick North Carolina to cover the spread

North Carolina has been impressive in the first two rounds even though the team is just 1-1 ATS. The Tar Heels fell short of covering versus the 16th-seeded Florida Gulf Coast Eagles in the first round, but then routed the ninth-seeded Providence Friars 85-66 in the second, improving to 5-1 ATS in their last six games.

They bring a seven-game winning streak into this matchup and are a remarkable 9-1 straight up in their previous 10 Sweet 16 appearances, according to the Odds Shark College Basketball Database, losing only to the Wisconsin Badgers last year. North Carolina is also 21-5 SU and 16-10 ATS in its last 26 games as a favorite of six points or less.

Smart betting pick

Crean was able to outcoach Kentucky's John Calipari in the round of 32, and he can do the same thing against UNC's Roy Williams. The Tar Heels were the worst three-point shooting team in the ACC this season, although that did not hurt them in either of their first two tourney games. But it could very well be the difference in a close game, especially playing an Indiana team that ranked second in the Big Ten in that category. The Hoosiers will at least cover the spread and also have what it takes to pull off the upset.

March Madness betting trends

Indiana is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four games against North Carolina.

North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

The total has gone over in six of Indiana's last seven games as underdogs in March.

Indiana is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app for iOS or Android.