NFL Free Agents Entering Best Scenarios for Success in 2016

Since the NFL's 2016 edition of free agency first kicked off at 4 p.m. ET on March 9, a lot of notable players have changed teams via signing or trade.

Some of these moves involved big-money, headline-grabbing deals. Some flew under the radar with relatively little fanfare. One thing they all have in common, however, is that they bring uncertainty about how each free-agent addition will perform with his new team.

Sure, we tend to laud a move like the Jacksonville Jaguars bringing in Super Bowl champion defender Malik Jackson because it looks terrific on paper. The Houston Texans bringing in quarterback Brock Osweiler on a four-year deal looks like a coup for the franchise on the surface. These are simply the types of moves that impress in real time.

The truth, however, is that we have no possible way of knowing whether any of these moves are going to pay off. This is precisely why "winning" the NFL offseason doesn't always translate to winning in the regular season.

What we can do is examine the situations surrounding new free-agent additions and speculate on which players are best suited for success. By examining factors like roster talent, scheme fit, coaching and divisional opponents, this is exactly what we're going to do. We're also only considering players who actually changed teams this offseason.

Do you agree with our picks? Be sure to let us know in the comments section.

Mohamed Sanu

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During the first week of free agency, the Atlanta Falcons signed wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to a five-year, $32.5 million contract. In doing so, the Falcons also put Sanu in a prime position to succeed.

In many ways, Sanu is entering a situation that is similar to the one he had with the Cincinnati Bengals. He's leaving Andy Dalton for Matt Ryan, and A.J. Green for Julio Jones. The main difference is that Sanu projects as a No. 2 receiver in Atlanta's offense rather than the No. 3 he was in Cincinnati last season.

Sanu got an opportunity to be a No. 2 in 2014, when Marvin Jones was out of action with a foot injury. He responded with a 56-catch, 790-yard season. He should be able to put up similar or better individual numbers in Atlanta's sixth-ranked (273.7 yards per game) passing offense.

Julio Jones is likely to receive more than his fair share of double coverage, which should open up things for Sanu. Opposing defenses won't be able to focus entirely on the passing game, either, as the Falcons have a legitimate 1,000-yard back in Devonta Freeman.

The fact the Falcons also brought in Pro Bowl center Alex Mack in free agency should further help Sanu's cause. The presence of Mack should buy Ryan more time in the pocket and help the entire Falcons offense as a whole.

Sanu should have little trouble topping the 900-yard mark, as former Falcon Roddy White did just two seasons ago.

Coby Fleener

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For most pass-catchers, leaving the Indianapolis Colts and quarterback Andrew Luck would probably mean a pending statistical decline. For 27-year-old tight end Coby Fleener, however, it could mean the beginning of a rise to NFL stardom.

Fleener was a solid tight end in Indianapolis, but he never emerged as a true receiving star. His best season was in 2014, when he caught 51 passes for 774 yards and eight touchdowns. He should have a great chance to eclipse that season with his new team, the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints signed Fleener to a five-year, $36 million contract this offseason, and he should immediately become a big piece of the offense. This is great for Fleener for a couple of reasons.

For one, Fleener will be catching passes from Drew Brees, a potential Hall of Famer who is still incredibly productive even at 37 years of age. Brees finished the 2015 season with a whopping 4,870 passing yards and 32 touchdowns.

Fleener will also benefit from having a head coach in Sean Payton who leans on his aerial attack—Pro Football Focus rated New Orleans fourth overall in passing offense last season. Payton also loves to utilize the tight end position.

Jimmy Graham produced 889 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2014. He was then traded and replaced by veteran Ben Watson. Watson produced 825 yards and six scores in 2015. A Saints tight end has caught more than 70 passes in each of the past five seasons.

Fleener should be the next guy on the list of successful tight ends in New Orleans.

Olivier Vernon

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The New York Giants made one of those big-money deals we mentioned at the opening of this article when the team inked 25-year-old pass-rusher Olivier Vernon to a massive five-year, $85 million deal.

Vernon will be a well-paid player in 2016, but he should also have a legitimate opportunity to succeed.

Last season with the Miami Dolphins, Vernon produced 7.5 sacks and finished the year rated first overall among 4-3 defensive ends by Pro Football Focus.

He could be even better in his new home. For starters, Vernon will be playing on a team that boasts a quarterback and an offense that can put up numbers at a dizzying pace. The Giants finished last season ranked sixth in scoring with an average of 26.2 points per game. On average, this is nearly a touchdown (plus extra point) more per game than what the Dolphins produced (19.4 points per game).

More points should mean more passing attempts by opposing teams—which in turn should lead to more sack opportunities for Vernon.

Vernon should also benefit from playing opposite Jason Pierre-Paul, who finished the 2015 season rated 11th among 4-3 defensive ends in pass rushing. It will be incredibly difficult for opposing lines to divert all of their attention in Vernon's direction.

Because of the potency of New York's offense, expect plenty of high-scoring games and plenty of sacks for the Giants defense. Vernon should have little trouble reaching or exceeding his career-high sack total of 11.5 in the coming year.

Travis Benjamin

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Wide receiver Travis Benjamin had a breakout season in 2015 by hauling in 68 receptions for 966 yards and five touchdowns. He accomplished this with the Cleveland Browns and with the platoon of Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown and Austin Davis at quarterback.

After signing a four-year, $24 million deal with the San Diego Chargers, he should have the opportunity to fully blossom into a star.

In San Diego, the 26-year-old Benjamin will benefit from catching passes from quarterback Philip Rivers. Despite battling through a poor season for the team in 2015, Rivers had a strong campaign. He passed for 4,792 yards with 29 touchdowns on the year.

Rivers is a far better signal-caller than anyone the Browns trotted out during Benjamin's tenure.

Because of his speed, Benjamin will likely be the deep-ball receiver in a Chargers offense that includes quite a few other pass-catching weapons. The Chargers brought back tight end Antonio Gates in free agency and also have pass-catchers like Keenan Allen, Steve Johnson and Danny Woodhead.

Benjamin might not be the primary receiver in San Diego, but it will be virtually impossible for opposing defenses to double him deep down the field on a consistent basis.

It should also help that Benjamin is heading to a team with an offensively driven head coach. Mike McCoy has spent more than a decade-and-a-half working on the offensive side of the football and should ensure Benjamin gets his opportunities.

Despite fielding a banged-up receiving corps in 2015, the Chargers still finished with the league's fourth-most potent passing attack (286.9 yards per game). Benjamin should flourish with his new team.

Brock Osweiler

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There are risks for both sides in the new Houston Texans and Brock Osweiler deal.

For Houston, the risks reside in Osweiler's four-year, $72 million deal and the $37 million in guarantees it contains. For Osweiler, the risks are rooted in the fact that he is leaving a Denver Broncos team that just won a Super Bowl and possessed a defense that was historically good.

In Denver, the Broncos never really asked Osweiler to do too much. The good news is that the 25-year-old shouldn't immediately be asked to shoulder the load in Houston, either. This is why Osweiler can succeed with his new team.

Though Houston's defense isn't on the level of what we saw in Denver last season, it is still a top-tier unit. Pro Football Focus rated Houston fifth in overall defense for the 2015 season, just four spots below the Broncos. Don't expect Osweiler to win many shootouts in 2016.

Osweiler will also benefit from having wideout DeAndre Hopkins as his primary receiving target. Hopkins finished the 2015 season with 111 receptions and 1,521 yards, despite playing with a combination of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Brandon Weeden and T.J. Yates at quarterback. He makes any signal-caller's life easier.

Adding fellow free agent Lamar Miller to the Houston backfield will also improve the situation around Osweiler.

Osweiler will also get to compete in an AFC South devoid of standout defenses. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts finished the 2015 season ranked 31st, 27th and 25th in scoring defense, respectively.

The Texans and Osweiler each saw the postseason in 2015, and they have a strong chance of seeing it together in 2016.

Mark Sanchez

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The Denver Broncos lost two quarterbacks during the opening week of free agency—Peyton Manning to retirement and Brock Osweiler to the Texans. To help offset the losses, the team then traded with the Philadelphia Eagles to acquire 29-year-old Mark Sanchez.

Yes, we know this is a list about free agents, but Sanchez might end up having the most success of any player to change teams this offseason, so we're including him.

This isn't to suggest that adding Sanchez will be the final move the Broncos make at the position. The team could still sign a free agent like Robert Griffin III or draft a prospect like Paxton Lynch. However, if Sanchez is tapped to be the starter in 2016, he has the team around him to succeed.

Denver likely won't ask Sanchez to shoulder much of the heavy lifting. The Broncos didn't ask a lot of their quarterbacks in 2015—neither Osweiler nor Manning finished the regular season with a passer rating above 90.0.

Denver will most likely ask Sanchez to be a game manager to support a defense that was rated first overall by Pro Football Focus last season. The Broncos defense has lost some pieces in free agency, but it is still a playoff-caliber unit.

Whenever Denver asks Sanchez to deliver on offense, he will have the weapons around him to do so. Wide receivers like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will give him top-tier pass-catching options, while C.J. Anderson has the talent to control the ground game.

This defense-first philosophy should be familiar to Sanchez. It is similar to the one the New York Jets employed during his first two years in the NFL. Sanchez reached the AFC title game in each of those seasons.

Don't be surprised if, given the opportunity to start, Sanchez plays well enough for Denver to reach deep into the postseason once again in 2016.

Kelechi Osemele

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Early in free agency, the Oakland Raiders scored a major offseason victory by signing guard Kelechi Osemele to a five-year, $58.5 million deal. Osemele is one of the top up-and-coming linemen in the entire league, and he is just 26 years old.

For the Raiders, he represents a legitimate building block for the future.

Of course, Osemele is going to receive his opportunity to benefit, as well. Offensive linemen rarely get the attention they deserve for technique or efficiency, but folks take notice when they make a ball-carrier or quarterback look good.

With Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr and Pro Bowl running back Latavius Murray behind him, Osemele will have plenty of chances to make others look good in the coming season.

It will help that the Raiders brought back starting left tackle Donald Penn in free agency and already boast a strong offensive line. Pro Football Focus rated Oakland 10th in run blocking and second in pass blocking for the 2015 season.

Now Osemele gets to be a part of the group.

“I think he brings the nastiness that we already bring as an offensive line," Penn said of Osemele, per Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com. "I think he is going to fit in very well."

The Raiders are expected to be a team on the rise in 2016, and it shouldn't be a surprise for Osemele to finally gain enough recognition to see his first Pro Bowl nomination.

Lamar Miller

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If Lamar Miller was hoping to see a rise in his individual statistics in 2016, he picked perhaps the perfect new home in the Houston Texans.

Miller, who finished the 2015 season with 872 yards rushing, was rated fifth overall among running backs by Pro Football Focus. He should see his stock significantly rise after signing a four-year, $26 million deal with Houston. 

The Texans are a team that is built to win with defense. Only two teams allowed fewer than the 310.2 yards per game allowed by Houston in 2015. This is important because defense-based teams tend to focus on shortening the game via the run. If the Texans can get out to even a marginal lead, there's a strong chance the team will lean on Miller to put the game away.

Of course, it's going to help that the Texans added a strong-armed quarterback in Brock Osweiler during free agency. The combination of Osweiler and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins should help stretch the field and prevent opposing defenses from focusing in on Miller and the ground game.

Though the Texans don't have an elite offensive line, it's better than the one Miller dealt with last season. Pro Football Focus rated the Dolphins dead last in run blocking for 2015.

Let's also not forget that Miller will now be playing in the relatively weak AFC South. Of the three other teams in the division, the Jacksonville Jaguars had the best run defense but still only ranked 15th with an average of 106.8 yards per game allowed.

Miller could be headed toward a Pro Bowl season in 2016, provided he stays healthy and Osweiler proves to be an above-average starter.

All contract information via Spotrac.com.