Sweet 16 2016: Upset Meter for Every Game
As you may recall, there were some upsets in the first four days of full NCAA tournament action.
But what about the next round?
When you belly up to a feeding trough as deep as March Madness, you keep eating until they roll your bloated, gluttonous self away. And what a spread the first two rounds of action gave us.
We're into the Sweet 16 round now, where the stakes really increase. So embiggen yourself while you can. Embrace your sporting id. Be greedy. Be forgetful. No matter what kind of craziness happened before, that was before. No one can expect us to, you know, "remember" all this stuff, right? Just do it again!
In that spirit, here is the upset meter for the entire Sweet 16 slate. We break down the whats and whys of each contest and the chances for an upset in each. And for these purposes, "upset" means the higher-numbered seed winning.
Odds provided by OddsShark.com. All statistics provided by ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 3 Miami
1 of 8
When: March 24, 7:10 p.m.
The Betting Line: Miami +4.5
The Challenge: Villanova, for a change, appears to be firing on all cylinders at a convenient postseason time. It just whipped Iowa 87-68 playing the kind of uptempo, guard-centric brand of ball that is Villanova's signature. And it landed it in the Sweet 16 for the first time in its last five tournament appearances.
“It’s definitely a sigh of relief,” said Villanova senior Ryan Arcidiacono, according to the New York Times. “I just think the biggest thing is I’m honestly just done answering the questions about getting past the second weekend.”
Playing well and without that monkey on their backs to weigh them down, this could be a tough team to beat.
The Noteworthy Numbers: 56 and 12. The first number is the combined points of Miami's veteran backcourt of Angel Rodriguez, Sheldon McClellan and Davon Reed in the last round, when it knocked off a tough Wichita State group. The second number is the combined turnovers in the same game.
The X-Factor: Miami can run and gun with the Wildcats. But can it keep sloppy play and poor shot selection to a minimum? On the other side, now that Villanova has found the second weekend, what is it going do with it?
Upset Meter Reading: 5.8/10
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 4 Duke
2 of 8
When: March 24, 10:07 p.m. Eastern
The Betting Line: Duke +2
The Challenge: Size. Duke is always here this time of year, no matter what any metric says about its ability to do otherwise. But Grayson Allen is only one person. Brandon Ingram is great, but he's not a post player. What will they do when they run into a team with major size, and talented size at that?
The Noteworthy Numbers: 6'8". It's the average size of Oregon's starting forwards: Chris Boucher, Elgin Cook and team leader Dillon Brooks, whose cold-blooded three buried St. Joseph's on Sunday. That trio went for 45 points and 10 rebounds in that game, too. Duke's starting front court is pretty tall, too, paced by 7'1" Marshall Plumlee, but he and forwards Chase Jeter (6'10") and Ingram (6'9") combined for only 27 points against Yale, 25 of which came from Ingram. It will be interesting to see if they can replicate their 17 rebounds from that round as well, against a group of bigs as dynamic as Oregon's.
The X-Factor: It may come down to Ingram. The freshman is averaging 22.5 points on 45.1 percent shooting and 7.0 rebounds in two tourney games thus far. If he can keep that up while staying with Brooks and Co. defensively (both inside and out), that could help neutralize Oregon's ability to spread the floor.
Upset Meter Reading: 7/10. You can bet against Duke in March. I'm not going to.
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 5 Maryland
3 of 8
When: March 24, 9:40 p.m. Eastern
The Betting Line: Unavailable
The Challenge: Kansas is neck-and-neck with North Carolina for the designation of tourney's most dangerous team. In dusting off UConn to reach this round, the Jayhawks shot 49 percent from the floor, with guard Wayne Selden and big man Perry Ellis bookending the effort with 22 and 21 points, respectively. Frank Mason, Devonte' Graham and the rest of Kansas held the Huskies to 33 percent shooting. If I'm Maryland, I don't want to pick any of these poisons.
The Noteworthy Numbers: 1-18. That's Maryland's woeful three-point shooting performance in the last round against Hawaii. The Terrapins' defense and transition scoring propelled them to the win, but if they lay that many bricks against the Jayhawks, they'll be building their own prison.
The X-Factor: Melo Trimble is simultaneously Maryland's most talented player, playing at its weakest position. Unlike the Terps' deep front court or full complement of experienced wing players, Trimble operates without a net. If he gets in foul trouble, rolls his ankle or misses a three-pointer or five (see above), it's hard to pull him out. Senior leader Rasheed Sulaimon and others can fill some the gap, but Trimble is really the only true point guard on Maryland's active roster. They can win without him—and they do have the depth, size and defense to give Kansas problems—but it's a lot harder. Against Kansas, it will be darn near impossible.
Upset Meter Reading: 4/10
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No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
4 of 8
When: March 24, 7:37 p.m. Eastern
The Betting Line: Texas A&M +1.5
The Challenge: After that preposterous double-overtime, back-from-the-dead thriller to knock off Northern Iowa, what does Texas A&M have left? They're playing with house money after that win. Oklahoma, a top-ranked team for much of the season behind player of the year candidate Buddy Hield, is not there yet. The Aggies will need to summon all their defensive focus to stop the Sooners.
The Noteworthy Numbers: 11th. It's Texas A&M's regular-season position in KenPom.com's national adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. It surrendered zero points and forced four turnovers in the final 44 seconds of regulation with Northern Iowa to reach overtime and this Sweet 16.
The X-Factor: The team play of Oklahoma. Hield is spectacular—and seriously, do yourself a favor and watch as much of what remains of his college career as you can—but he needs help. He got it against VCU. Will he get it against the Aggies? As Ken Bikoff of Campus Insiders puts it:
"When the Sooners are successful, Hield gets help inside from forward Ryan Spangler, a great rebounder who does his best work scoring on putbacks. Hield also needs guards Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard to provide some balance and keep opponents honest. To get to the Elite Eight, Hield can’t be forced to have to do too much, and the Sooners have to take care of the basketball.
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Upset Meter Reading: 6.7/10. Hield is amazing, but Texas A&M's defense and grit have established them as a tough out.
No 1. UNC vs. No. 5 Indiana
5 of 8
When: March 25, 9:57 p.m. Eastern
The Betting Line: Indiana +5.5
The Challenge: The Hoosier defense is much improved, but still hit only 54 in KenPom's rankings. North Carolina, meanwhile, sits fifth in Ken's adjusted offensive rankings.
The Noteworthy Numbers: 4-2. The Tar Heels have four roster members who stand 6'9" or taller to just a pair of Hoosiers who reach the same threshold. UNC is well known for crashing the boards to catalyze its transition game, and it averages four more rebounds per contest than Indiana, 41-37. North Carolina's leading rebounder, Brice Johnson, averages 10.5 boards a game. Troy Williams paces Indiana with 5.9.
The X-Factor: Team defense. Yogi Ferrell will probably shine on both ends as is his wont, but there has to be more. Freshman Thomas Bryant is Indiana's main interior defender, and they can't leave him alone down low like a Dutch boy with his finger in the dike. Ferrell can't help much with that. Williams and OG Anunoby will need to step up.
Upset Meter Reading: 3.8/10. If Kansas isn't the tourney's best team, UNC is. Indiana will need a titanic all-around effort.
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Wisconsin
6 of 8
When: March 25, 7:27 p.m. Eastern
The Betting Line: Wisconsin +1
The Challenge: This is an upset ripe for the plucking. Michigan and Stephen F. Austin are fine teams, but let's not pretend Notre Dame knocked off two juggernauts to get here. Wisconsin is 13-3 since Jan. 5, when the light bulb came back on after coach Bo Ryan's surprise retirement. The Badgers upended No. 2 seed Xavier to reach the second weekend.
The Noteworthy Numbers: 20. Guard Bronson Koenig has been sluggish at times this season, leaving forward Nigel Hayes to shoulder the load. Koenig's season scoring average is 13.3. His scoring output (and that little buzzer-beater) against Xavier marked some of his best play of the season, and with Hayes scoring only six points on 2-of-10 shooting, they needed every bit of it.
The X-Factor: Zach Auguste and Bonzie Colson. Notre Dame's two-headed post tandem averages 26 points and 18 rebounds this season. They're averaging 24 and 17 in two tourney games thus far. They (particularly Auguste) need to be a rock and then some for the Irish down low against the Badgers.
Upset Meter Reading: 8/10
No. 1 UVA vs. No. 4 Iowa State
7 of 8
When: March 25, 7:10 p.m. Eastern
The Betting Line: Iowa State +5
The Challenge: Virginia's defense. As long as Virginia is involved, that will be the top challenge for any opponent.
The Noteworthy Numbers: 57. Virginia held Hampton and then Butler to this scoring average thanks to its pack-line defense, which involves shading over or "hedging" toward defenders and basically mobbing the ball any time it goes inside. That spells trouble for Iowa State, whose star, Georges Niang, is a big man who needs space to operate.
The X-Factor: Monte Morris. Iowa State's point guard might be the nation's most underrated player at that position. He dishes out 6.9 assists to only 1.6 turnovers per game. He'll need to be a real maestro with the ball to help the Cyclones navigate this smothering, maddening defense.
Upset Meter Reading: 6.1/10. Iowa State is so talented, but it'll need a near-perfect game to handle a Virginia team that's starting to have The Look.
No. 10 Syracuse vs. No. 11 Gonzaga
8 of 8
When: March 25, 9:40 p.m. Eastern
The Betting Line: Syracuse +4.5
The Challenge: This is not a good matchup for the Orange. Their matchup zone defense is famous, but as Matthew Giles of the Washington Post said, "Gonzaga is constructed to shred zone defenses. It’s been endlessly repeated that the Orange’s most glaring weakness is on the defensive glass; Middle Tennessee and Dayton posted a combined 43.3 percent defensive rebounding rate."
The Noteworthy Numbers: Center Domantas Sabonis. Yes, I realize that's not a number. But take his regular-season statistics from Sports-Reference: 11.7 rebounds per game, 20.6 rebound percentage, 91.3 defensive rating, 2.7 defensive win shares, 61.6 percent effective field-goal percentage and 29 player efficiency ratings. He led the West Coast Conference in all of those categories. It's hard to know how the Orange counteract the rebounding and putback machine that is Sabonis.
The X-Factor: Kyle Wiltjer. Gonzaga's zone-bending big man puts unbearable pressure on defenses when he's hitting threes. His season average from deep is 43.2, per Sports-Reference. So far in the tourney, he's 5-of-8 for a 62.5 percent conversion. If the 6'10" senior keeps that up—especially with a higher output—the Orange are up a creek.
Upset Meter Reading: 9/10. As the odds indicate, many view Gonzaga as the favorite here despite its inferior seeding. If you go by the seed numbers, though, this is the most likely upset of the Sweet 16 bunch.
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