Baylor Upset Has Yale Primed for Cinderella Run Against Now-Vulnerable Duke

The tournament has its underdog.

And they just so happen to be Bulldogs.

Yale outsmarted Baylor on Thursday afternoon with beautiful back cuts and precision passing on the way to a 79-75 win over the No. 5 seed.

Now Yale must prepare to bully the Blue Devils.

Duke awaits in the second round, and as Mike Krzyzewski's young crew showed for a half on Thursday against UNC Wilmington, they're a vulnerable giant.

Yale has the recipe to beat Duke: two legitimate big men, Justin Sears and Brandon Sherrod, who can score in the paint.

Take a look at Duke's last three losses, and what the starting frontcourt did in each game:

• Pittsburgh: Jamel Artis (17 points) and Michael Young (10 points)
• North Carolina: Brice Johnson (18 points and 21 rebounds) and Kennedy Meeks (12 points and 14 rebounds)
• Notre Dame: Zach Auguste (19 points and 22 rebounds) and Bonzie Colson (12 points and 12 rebounds)

When Duke lost Amile Jefferson for the season in December, it forced Coach K to go small, playing wing Brandon Ingram at power forward.

Ingram is an incredible offensive talent, but he doesn't have the strength to defend in the post, and Marshall Plumlee is the only Blue Devil equipped to handle true interior scorers.

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

These two teams played earlier this season in Durham, a game that Duke won 80-61, and Jefferson had nine points and 12 boards. What was often lost in the box score was his defensive presence. He was Duke's best defender.

So not only should his absence give the Bulldogs confidence, but they also hung around for a half in the first meeting—they trailed by only two at half—and that's still fresh in the memory bank.

"I'm glad we got a rematch," Makai Mason said on the CBS broadcast. "We thought we could hang with them in the first game, and I think we might surprise some people."

Another feather in Yale's cap from that night is that Sears, the two-time Ivy League Player of the Year, scored 19 points against Duke. And that was with Jefferson still around.

Sears is a high-major talent whom Yale will likely play through against Duke. He had 18 points against the Bears, and they have one of the bigger (and stronger) frontlines in the country. Sears is also quick enough to chase Ingram around on the perimeter.

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Yale also has a savvy point guard in Mason who will dictate tempo—Yale likes to play at a slow pace—and will have the advantage over Duke freshman Derryck Thornton. Mason tore up Baylor with his mid-range jumper and ability to score off the bounce, pouring in a career-high 31 points.

The other big reason the Blue Devils miss Jefferson is a lack of depth. They cannot afford foul trouble, and they defend that way.

That defense, which gave Wilmington few problems, ranks 118th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Even when opponents shoot poorly, Duke is a terrible defensive rebounding team, ranking 326th in defensive rebounding rate. Yale is the seventh-best offensive rebounding team in college basketball.

The talent of Ingram and Allen were too much for UNC Wilmington, and the future pros could ruin Yale's run.

But all of the ingredients for an upset are there.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @CJMooreBR.