Teams on Upset Alert in Day 4 of the 2016 NCAA Tournament

If you think the Round 1 upsets are over, you don't know March Madness.

It didn't take long on Thursday to see some surprising outcomes. No. 12 seed Yale upset No. 5 seed Baylor before No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock produced a memorable double-overtime win over No. 5 Purdue. This was just the start of what should continue to be a crazy NCAA tournament.

A number of high seeds are vulnerable heading into Friday, and we know there will be at least a few upsets. The question is which teams will survive and advance, and which will have disappointing early exits?

While we know anything can happen this time of year, these teams especially should be on alert in the round of 64.

California

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No. 4 California vs. No. 13 Hawaii (South Region)

One major injury will make this one of the most popular upset picks of the first round.

According to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports, Tyrone Wallace will be out Friday with a broken hand suffered during practice. As the team's leading scorer (15.3 points per game) and passer (4.4 assists per game), the senior point guard will be missed from this otherwise young squad.

Hawaii is a solid team in its own right, coming in with a 27-5 record while winning the Big West Conference. The Rainbow Warriors play an aggressive style of defense while forcing tough shots all over the court. Stefan Jankovic is a versatile scorer who can get points inside the paint or beyond the arc, while Aaron Valdes and Roderick Bobbitt have emerged as complementary options on offense.

Add in a fast pace against a relatively shallow Cal lineup, and the Rainbow Warriors have a chance to pull off a large upset.

On the other hand, California has more scorers than just Wallace with freshmen Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb looking to make an impact. The team also has one of the best interior defenses in the country with Rabb and a few 7-footers patrolling the paint, likely making things difficult for Jankovic.

Sam Singer did a solid job filling in for Wallace when he missed five games earlier in the season, which has head coach Cuonzo Martin's confidence high.

"I'm not worried at all," Martin said, per Josh Peter of USA Today. "Sam will do a great job at the point guard position and whoever backs him up will do well as what."

California still has the talent to make a deep run in this tournament, although this first matchup will be much tougher than it hoped coming in.

West Virginia

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No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin (East Region)

This would qualify as a major upset as many have West Virginia going all the way to the Final Four and possibly beyond. However, this is not a great matchup for the Big 12 squad.

Stephen F. Austin has been one of the most successful mid-majors in the country over the past few years, and once again head coach Brad Underwood has given his team a winning mentality. The Lumberjacks come in with an impressive 27-5 record with a tournament-best 20-game active winning streak.

Just as importantly, they run the same style of play as West Virginia, which could make them more capable of handling the constant pressure. According to KenPom.com, West Virginia has the second-highest rate of turnovers forced in the country, while Stephen F. Austin ranks No. 1.

Two years ago, the Lumberjacks upset another press-heavy team in VCU by limiting turnovers and putting the press right back on their opponent. With the same coach and a few of the same players, including leading scorer Thomas Walkup, they can have a similar approach to West Virginia.

If the Southland Conference champions can beat the press, they will be able to knock down the open looks on the other end and put up big scoring totals against this otherwise solid defense. Limiting turnovers will also lead to fewer easy scoring opportunities for the Mountaineers.

West Virginia is a terrible matchup for teams who have never seen this type of press, but Stephen F. Austin will be better prepared than most.

Texas

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No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Northern Iowa (West Region)

Consistency was a problem for Northern Iowa this season, but at its best this is a dangerous squad.

Throughout the campaign, Northern Iowa earned wins over North Carolina, Iowa State and Wichita State twice, among others. The Panthers have also won 12 of their last 13 games after a 10-11 start, proving they are peaking at the right time.

While the losses to Loyola Chicago and Missouri State are concerning, this tournament is one-and-done, which means all you need to do is play your best and you will win. When this squad is hitting shots, it can beat almost anyone in the field.

As for Texas, this has been an impressive first year under Shaka Smart. The Longhorns don't look much like his former Virginia Commonwealth teams, but Isaiah Taylor and Javan Felix have become a formidable backcourt that has keyed a number of quality wins throughout the Big 12 season. On the other hand, this group sometimes disappears, leading to double-digit deficits in each of their last four losses.

This is also not a squad you want to trust in crunch time with just a 66.5 free-throw percentage as a team and a 33.9 percent mark from three-point range. It will be difficult to count on getting those key shots late when they haven't fallen all year long.

Northern Iowa doesn't have the physicality of Texas, but the Panthers are a red-hot team that will not be easy to beat.

Iowa

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No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Temple (South Region)

A few weeks ago, you would have been baffled to see Iowa as a No. 7 seed. This was a Top Five squad that looked ready to win a Big Ten regular-season title and contend for a No. 1 seed. Unfortunately, that seems like years ago.

After a 20-5 start, Iowa lost five of its last six games heading into the NCAA tournament, including defeats against Penn State and Illinois.

"Iowa's collapse this season has really been epic. Thought they'd come down a little, but not this much," tweeted CBS Sports' Seth Davis.

The analytic numbers at KenPom.com are still on the Hawkeyes' side, but a lot of that is due to the play from earlier in the year. This is not the same team that swept Michigan State and Purdue.

Jarrod Uthoff has slumped a bit down the stretch, and while Peter Jok has played well, the rest of the team has been silent. The defense also hasn't been quite as sharp as it was a month ago.

This leaves an opening for Temple, which plays strong defense and can create a few offensive mismatches with Obi Enechionyia and Jaylen Bond as well as top guard Quenton DeCosey. The Owls offense has been inconsistent at times, but these three players are all capable of creating for themselves and putting up big numbers.

Temple has the length and athleticism to keep Uthoff and others in check, which could lead to an upset that will surprise the number crunchers.

Notre Dame

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No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Michigan (East Region)

Defense will be optional in this game.

Both Notre Dame and Michigan excel on the offensive end but have had real problems defending. That could create an exciting battle but also an increased chance of an upset.

Demetrius Jackson leads the Fighting Irish offense, which features five players averaging double-figure scoring per game. They pass the ball well and knock down open shots. However, their opponent can be just as effective on the offensive end.

Michigan doesn't have a star since Caris LeVert went down with a leg injury, but the entire team has picked up the slack with everyone capable of hitting shots from the outside. The squad shoots 38.0 percent from three-point range, and Duncan Robinson is especially dangerous at 44.7 percent on the year.

The Wolverines beat Tulsa in the First Four without shooting well from the outside, although when the shots are falling this is one of the more dangerous teams in the country. Considering Notre Dame allows opponents to shoot 37.6 percent from beyond the arc, Michigan could be an even scarier opponent.

Notre Dame has been able to outscore most teams this season, but another high-powered offense could lead to an early exit in the NCAA tournament.

Maryland

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No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 12 South Dakota State (South Region)

Like Iowa, the end of the year was a concern for Maryland. The last eight games featured five losses, including one embarrassing defeat to Minnesota. 

Melo Trimble's recent play is a major concern, especially his shooting. He hasn't made more than half of his shots in any game during this stretch and finished just 2-of-15 from the field in the latest loss to Michigan State. The point guard was the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year, but there hasn't been any sign of this ability in recent weeks.

If he can't turn things around in the NCAA tournament, Maryland could be in trouble. South Dakota State, hailing from the Summit League, might be from a small conference, but it had a solid year and has a chance to surprise people in this tournament.

With five players on the court who can shoot the three, the Jackrabbits can spread Maryland out and take big men like Diamond Stone and Robert Carter away from the basket, creating openings in the paint. The Terps could then elect to play small, taking away their size advantage.

While Maryland is the more talented team, the squad has played sloppy all year long with high turnover rates and poor defensive rebounding. A disciplined team like South Dakota State could take advantage of these issues and become yet another No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5.

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