March Madness 2016: Odds and Predictions for Top 1st-Round Matchups

It’s the Wednesday afternoon before the first round of the NCAA tournament takes over America’s consciousness on Thursday and Friday. It’s time to start coughing at the office and laying the groundwork for a couple of sick days, because this year’s batch of games promises to provide a number of thrilling moments.

After all, March Madness may be especially mad in 2016, considering the way the regular season unfolded.

Mike Rutherford of SB Nation noted that Top 10 squads in the Associated Press Poll lost 74 times in 2015-16, which was an all-time record. What’s more, Top Five teams dropped 37 games in all and 21 to unranked foes, which indicates there could be some bracket-altering upsets in the first round.

With that in mind, here is a look at the odds and predictions for the first-round matchups, as well as a couple in particular that are bound to thrill. The odds are courtesy of OddsShark, as of Wednesday morning at 1 a.m. ET. The matchups involving the First Four winners did not have listed odds at the time. 

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Matchups	Odds	Predicted Winner (straight up, not ATS)
Duke vs. UNC Wilmington	Duke -10.5	UNC Wilmington
Butler vs. Texas Tech	Butler -4	Texas Tech
Connecticut vs. Colorado	Connecticut -3	Colorado
Iowa State vs. Iona	Iowa State -7.5	Iowa State
Baylor vs. Yale	Baylor -5.5	Baylor
Virginia vs. Hampton	Virginia -23.5	Virginia
Kansas vs. Austin Peay	Kansas -26	Kansas
Purdue vs. Arkansas-Little Rock	Purdue -8.5	Purdue
Miami vs. Buffalo	Miami -13.5	Miami
Indiana vs. Chattanooga	Indiana -12	Indiana
Utah vs. Fresno State	Utah -8.5	Utah
Kentucky vs. Stony Brook	Kentucky -14.5	Kentucky
USC vs. Providence	Providence -1.5	Providence
Seton Hall vs. Gonzaga	Pick	Gonzaga
Dayton vs. Syracuse	Dayton -1	Dayton
Villanova vs. UNC Asheville	Villanova -17	Villanova
Oregon State vs. VCU	VCU -4.5	Oregon State
California vs. Hawaii	California -7	California
Michigan State vs. Middle Tennessee	Michigan State -17.5	Michigan State
Iowa vs. Temple	Iowa -7	Iowa
Oklahoma vs. CS Bakersfield	Oklahoma -14	Oklahoma
Maryland vs. South Dakota State	Maryland -9.5	Maryland
Wisconsin vs. Pittsburgh	Wisconsin -2	Wisconsin
West Virginia vs. Stephen F. Austin	West Virginia -7	West Virginia
Texas A&M vs. Wisconsin-Green Bay	Texas A&M -13	Texas A&M
Xavier vs. Weber State	Xavier -13	Xavier
Texas vs. Northern Iowa	Texas -4	Northern Iowa
Cincinnati vs. Saint Joseph's	Cincinnati -1.5	Saint Joseph's

Oregon State vs. VCU

The battle between the VCU defense and the Oregon State backcourt will determine the outcome of this game, especially since Beavers big man Tres Tinkle is out for the contest with injury, according to Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com.

While the Rams will likely gear their game plan toward stopping him, Gary Payton II is the star of this matchup and could develop into one of the tournament’s most memorable players if he lives up to his potential. He averaged 15.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.5 steals per game this season and leads his team in all four categories.

He is much more than just the son of “The Glove,” Gary Payton, and can impact the game in a number of ways. He now has the opportunity to introduce himself to a national audience in the NCAA tournament, as Oregon State flies under the radar out west. 

John Canzano of the Oregonian and 750 The Game in Portland passed along Payton’s quote about what he is looking to do at the Big Dance:

And don’t overlook Payton’s teammate, Derrick Bruce as a possible factor, after he poured in 25 points in Oregon State’s Pac-12 tournament loss to California. Considering he was hitting shots like this, via the Pac-12 Networks, his confidence should be at an all-time high before the tournament:

However, that VCU defense was ranked 21st by Ken Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted defensive efficiency rankings (as of Tuesday). What’s more, it only allowed more than 80 points once since Jan. 16, and that came in the Atlantic 10 tournament against a quality Saint Joseph’s team that will also be part of the Madness of March.

There is also the consideration that Oregon State’s last tournament appearance came all the way back in the 1989-90 season. The Beavers could be blinded by the moment and pressure, which would prove particularly costly against a defense looking to create turnovers and limit the ball-handlers.

Still, this Oregon State squad battled with the difficult teams in the Pac-12 all season and will not be overwhelmed by the Big Dance atmosphere with Payton in charge. Look for the guard to dictate the tempo as the Beavers gradually pull away in the first round. 

Predicted winner: Oregon State

Wisconsin vs. Pittsburgh

This has been a rather strange season for Wisconsin, after it reached the national championship in 2014-15.

The Badgers lost to Western Illinois, a bad Georgetown squad, Milwaukee, Marquette, Northwestern and Nebraska but managed to beat VCU, Syracuse, Temple, Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland and Iowa. Basically, the notion that Pittsburgh is a solid opponent that made the tournament indicates that Wisconsin should have a chance against it.

As for the Panthers, they get another shot at a Big Ten foe after they lost to Purdue in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, 72-59. The fact that this is a clash between the two conferences that match up in that event every season adds another layer of intrigue as well (the Big Ten won this season, 8-6).

The Panthers did beat Duke, so they are not strangers to knocking off quality opponents this season.

It would be easy to point to Wisconsin’s recent tournament success (two straight Final Fours) as a difference in this one, but key pieces such as Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker are no longer there. Still, Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig were important players on those past teams and can let their teammates know what to expect this season.

Even with Hayes and Koenig, the ultimate difference in this game will be on the defensive side.

According to Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency rankings (as of Tuesday), the Badgers are the 24th-best defense in the country, compared to the 84th-best Panthers. In what will likely be a close contest, Wisconsin’s ability to come up with critical stops as the game enters the stretch run will be enough to keep its season alive. 

Hayes’ presence will also help, and Adam Hoge of WGN Radio made a prediction for next year regarding the junior:

Hayes scored a team-high 16.3 points a night this season and will find the basket in the important moments as he and the defense propel the Badgers to victory.

Predicted winner: Wisconsin