March Madness 2016: Bracket Predictions, Odds Tips for Final First Four Schedule

While fortunate to receive any March Madness inclusion, four college basketball teams must win an extra game in order to fill out the NCAA tournament's field of 64.

On Tuesday night, Florida Gulf Coast and Wichita State kicked off March Madness with First Four victories. Two more spots remain up for grabs on Wednesday night, as a No. 11 and No. 16 seed once again dangle.

Holy Cross and Southern both earned automatic bids with unlikely conference-tournament wins, but the selection committee used a loophole to effectively kick one out before the real fun begins. 

Michigan and Tulsa secured no such guarantees, so both bubble teams will take the opportunity over an NIT invite. Although neither is a particularly intriguing sleeper, the winner advances to a winnable matchup against Notre Dame.

It's not the typical chaos associated with college hoops in March, but Wednesday night offers a calm before the storm with the second First Four doubleheader.

Holy Cross vs. Southern (-2)

Rich Schultz/Associated Press

So why exactly do conference tournaments award automatic qualifiers to the Big Dance?

Before becoming the year's most improbable NCAA tournament participant, Holy Cross entered the Patriot League tournament at 10-19. It doesn't matter that the Crusaders had lost seven of their last eight games, because they won the four that mattered.

Senior Cullen Hamilton summed up their status well to the Washington Post's Mark Giannotto. “To be honest,” Hamilton said, “it doesn’t make sense.”

No, it does not. Their No. 268 KenPom.com team rating is the worst of the bracket's 68 teams, and they hadn't won a conference road game before rattling off four straight to steal a spot. According to ESPN Stats & Info, they're one of the worst teams ever to make the tournament, but some of their underwhelming companions have made the most of their bizarre inclusion:

The Southern Jaguars aren't quite a juggernaut, either. They also fended off a late skid before claiming the Southwestern Athletic Conference on a game-winning tip-in by Adrian Rodgers.

But at least they finished with a winning record (22-12) and positive point differential (3.9).

Before citing the 21.8 threes Holy Cross attempts per game to pick a small-scale upset, remember that aggressive long-range shooting only helps if the team can actually make them. Outside of leading scorer Malachi Alexander, the Crusaders don't shoot efficiently from downtown, collectively netting a 32.7 percentage.  

Even if Oregon is a flimsy No. 1 seed, it won't have much trouble dispatching the winner of this bout.

Prediction: Southern 71, Holy Cross 68

Michigan (-4) vs. Tulsa

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Michigan didn't win the Big Ten tournament, but it still likely salvaged its season with two narrow wins, most notably a 72-69 triumph over then-No. 10 Indiana. Tulsa, meanwhile, nearly derailed its chances following a 22-point loss to Memphis.

Nevertheless, the Wolverines and Golden Hurricane rank No. 56 and 58, respectively, on KenPom.com with similar adjusted net ratings:

Rating	Michigan	Tulsa
Record	22-12	20-11
Pythagorean	.7779	.7703
Offensive	112.7	110.8
Defensive	101.0	99.7
Net	11.7	11.1

Sound off the "seniors" and "guards" tournament sirens. Tulsa has both in James Woodard, Shaquille Harrison and Rashad Smith. Woodard, who has recorded a team-high 15.6 points per game, touted the club's experience to the Associated Press' Joe Kay, via ABCNews.com.

"We've got to use our veteran-laden team as an advantage in this tournament because we have been around a long time," Woodard said. "We've seen every situation."

Although not all seniors, the Wolverines experienced plenty of tight contests this year. Their four wins against top-50 RPI teams came by a combined 17 points. Then again, they endured 11 losses to the same tier by an average margin of 13.9 points. 

For all of its seniors, Tulsa lacks size and strong perimeter shooting. Michigan can create the most separation from behind the arc, where it has converted 110 more three-pointers at a significantly higher efficiency.

Both bubble teams come with their blemishes, but the Wolverines have displayed a higher ceiling with wins over Indiana and Maryland. Barring an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance, the Wolverines advance.

Prediction: Michigan 76, Tulsa 70

Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.

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