NCAA Tournament 2016: Ranking the Most Likely Upsets in Round of 64

There’s only one thing that’s more fun than watching Cinderella celebrate in the NCAA tournament. And that’s watching Cinderella celebrate as you jubilantly circle a correct upset pick in your bracket.

Here, we offer eight first-round matchups that just might end with the guys in dark colors throwing their hands in the air and the guys in white burying their faces in their jerseys.

In order to qualify for this list, a game must involve opponents with at least a five-seed difference; thus, No. 11 vs. No. 6 represents the minimum. Also, no potential matchups involving teams in the First Four in Dayton were considered.

The rankings are based on an assessment of relative strengths and weaknesses, statistical analysis and, of course, the eyeball test. There may be a gut feeling or two mixed in for good measure.

On to the upsets.

8. East Region: No. 12 Chattanooga over No. 5 Indiana

Associated Press

Look, we’re saying it could happen. And it would be an epically Indiana defeat. Not to mention an epically Tom Crean defeat.

In his career, Crean has coached eight teams—three at Indiana—to the NCAA tournament prior to this year. Four of those squads, including last season's Hoosiers, lost their opening game. Crean’s previous Indiana tournament team lost as a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16. His record in the Big Ten tournament is, for what it’s worth, 3-8.

Chattanooga is a 29-5 squad that won the Southern Conference’s regular-season and tournament titles. The Mocs won at Dayton in December and beat Georgia and Illinois away from home.

It’s a veteran team—all seniors and juniors in the regular rotation—with a shot-blocking big man in Justin Tuoyo, who at 6'10" and 235 pounds can match the height, if not quite the beef, of Hoosiers freshman Thomas Bryant, who's 6'10", 245 pounds.

This will be a clash of tempos—the Mocs want to slow things to a crawl. If Indiana can keep the pedal to the metal, it won’t be a fair fight. Chattanooga is strong defensively, though, and has a senior in Eric Robertson who has drilled as many as seven three-pointers in a game this season.

7. East Region: No. 14 Stephen F. Austin over No. 3 West Virginia

Craig Mitchelldyer/Associated Press

Keep in mind that there has been at least one No. 14-over-No. 3 upset in each of the last three years. And in 2015, 14th-seeded teams UAB and Georgia State scored victories over Iowa State and Baylor, respectively.

But let’s talk about the Lumberjacks, shall we? They’ve won 20 games in a row. They were perfect in the Southland Conference, crushing it through the regular season and winning their conference tournament games by an average of 29 points. It’s fair to say they haven’t really been tested, but it's obvious they have a knack for outscoring their opponents.

Let’s dig deeper now: Stephen F. Austin leads the nation with 18.6 turnovers forced per game. Not surprisingly, it’s among the top teams in scoring defense. The kenpom.com ratings regard the Lumberjacks well, as they're 30th in adjusted defense.

West Virginia, meanwhile, is the most turnover-prone major-conference team in this tournament. The Mountaineers have also committed the most total fouls of any team in the field. There could be a ton of hidden points for SFA in this game.

If SFA buries a few timely jumpers—senior guard Demetrious Floyd’s long-range game is explosive—why can’t this be an upset?

6. South Region: No. 13 Hawaii over No. 4 California

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

There is no reason why the Rainbow Warriors can’t knock off the Golden Bears. Unless you count Cal stars Jaylen Brown, Ivan Rabb and Tyrone Wallace as reasons.

OK, those are pretty good reasons.

But really, Brown and Rabb are freshmen—how will they respond if and when things get sticky? And what does Cal know about March, anyway? The school has a meager two victories in the Big Dance since the days of Jason Kidd.

Then again, Hawaii has a grand total of zero NCAA tournament wins.

But this is a terrific Hawaii team—a 27-win group with only five losses, one of which came in a nail-biter against Oklahoma and another of which came at Texas Tech in a contest the Rainbow Warriors led by double digits. A dominating teardown of the Big West followed.

Hawaii has three players—Stefan Jankovic, Aaron Valdes and Roderick Bobbitt—who’ve gone off for over 30 points in a game this season. They are juniors and seniors, which strongly suggests they’ll be unbowed in the face of the young Bears’ extraordinary talent.

5. West Region: No. 12 Yale over No. 5 Baylor

Leon Bennett/Getty Images

The kenpom.com split in this game—Baylor is 25th, Yale 44th—is small.

Baylor’s nearly six-week slide—seven losses in 12 games—is big.

Also big: Yale’s run of 17 victories in its last 18 games.

Let’s not be foolish enough to compare the teams’ schedules; clearly, the Bears’ has been far more arduous. But you have to like the Bulldogs’ overall experience, with seniors Justin Sears, Brandon Sherrod and Nick Victor surrounding clever, creative sophomore guard Makai Mason.

Sears is a two-time Ivy League Player of the Year. The likes of Rico Gathers and Taurean Prince will test—ridiculously, it might seem—the nails-tough forward. But Yale doesn’t beat itself; for example, the Bulldogs committed the fewest total fouls of any team in the tournament.

Indeed, the Bears will have to be on their game. But they haven’t been—not even close—of late. Coach Scott Drew has won only two games in the Big Dance since 2012. He’ll have to rev his team up, and that has been an ongoing problem.

4. Midwest Region: No. 13 Iona over No. 4 Iowa State

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

If Iowa State, the Big 12’s highest-scoring team this season at 81.8 points per game, wants to play fast—and it does—Iona will have no problem with that. Let’s have ourselves a shootout, then.

Iona averages a hair under 80 points and, like the Cyclones, moves the ball with efficiency. And what the Gaels can do is shoot the three; the team has more three-point attempts than anybody else in the tournament and the second-most makes (trailing only Oklahoma).

Senior guard A.J. English, one of the top scorers in the tournament at 22.4 points per game, is on a long-ball tear, having made 33 threes over his last seven games. Fellow senior Isaiah Williams has made 84 threes, and sophomore Deyshonee Much has made 77. All three guards are 6'4" or taller, so getting their shots off shouldn’t be an issue.

Iona averages 10 threes per game. You can bet coach Tim Cluess’ plan is for his team to exceed that average.

Size-wise, the Gaels match up just fine with Iowa State. Cyclones star Georges Niang leads one of the smaller major-conference front lines around.

Rebounding, not a strength of either squad, will be a major issue. Iowa State is a poor offensive rebounding team—the Gaels can’t give away cheap extra possessions. At 6'8", 255 pounds, Gaels junior Jordan Washington often will be the largest, strongest guy on the floor, and he’ll have to play like it.

The Cyclones lost to 14th-seeded UAB in their opening game one year ago. Don’t be surprised if history repeats itself. 

3. Midwest Region: No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock over No. 5 Purdue

Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

The Boilermakers are famously gigantic. Burly senior 7-footer A.J. Hammons' backup is sophomore man-mountain Isaac Haas, who is two inches taller and more than 30 pounds heavier. Freshman forward Caleb Swanigan, a 6'9", 250-pound former McDonald’s All-American, is almost cute by comparison. At 6'8", smooth sophomore Vince Edwards is a difficult matchup on the wing.

And then there’s Little Rock, which is much shorter, certainly skinnier and by no means half as intimidating.

So what’s the deal here? It boils down to execution. The Trojans have one of the stingiest defenses in college basketball; they rank second in points allowed (59.6) and hold opponents to a dinky field-goal percentage of 38.8, including a 30.7 mark from behind the arc. Little Rock shoots 45.8 and 38.8, respectively, and not surprisingly, is excellent from the foul line. Little Rock also has one of the best turnover margins in the country.

Little Rock’s strength is its backcourt play—senior point man Josh Hagins will be the best guard on the floor—and Purdue’s obvious weakness is its own guard play.

The Boilermakers have lost to far smaller Butler, Illinois and Michigan this season, completely falling apart on offense in those contests. Extra defenders hemmed in Hammons and Haas, and their perimeter teammates just couldn’t knock down shots.

If Little Rock’s 6'11" Lis Shoshi manages his fouls and 6'9" Mareik Isom tests Purdue’s bigs with his ever-improving three-point shot, it’ll stay close. Close tournament games go to teams that execute. In this area, the 29-4 Trojans are far more reliable than most.

2. West Region: No. 11 Northern Iowa over No. 6 Texas

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

This really isn’t about the Longhorns’ weaknesses, although there is quite a list of them. Field-goal shooting: not good. Rebounding: not good at all. Free-throw shooting: terrible. Assist-to-field-goal ratio: bottom of the barrel.

Yet Texas is a Big 12 team, quite talented and is certainly the favorite in this game. We get all that.

Let’s talk about the Panthers, though. Let’s talk about UNI 71, North Carolina 67 back in November. Let’s talk about UNI 81, Iowa State 79 in December. Let’s talk about 12 wins in 13 games and a lineup whose top three scorers—Wes Washpun, Matt Bohannon and Paul Jesperson—are seniors with NCAA tournament experience.

At one point in January, the Panthers were 10-11 overall and buried at 2-6 in the Missouri Valley standings. Now they’re one of those opponents no one wants to see.

1. Midwest Region: No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 Seton Hall

John Locher/Associated Press

Seed-wise, this would be a clear upset. Then again, No. 11 seeds have beaten No. 6 seeds in 12 of their last 24 meetings. Also—let’s just tell it like it is—Odds Shark actually has installed Gonzaga as the slight favorite in this game.

Also, there is the matter of pedigree. Over the lifetimes of its players, Seton Hall has won a single NCAA tournament game. Sixth-year Pirates coach Kevin Willard is making his first Big Dance appearance.

For the Zags and coach Mark Few, this is, of course, old hat. The program has reached this tournament all 17 seasons under Few, and last year’s Elite Eight run was supposed to set the tone for a special campaign.

Instead, the Zags have lost seven times and were on the bubble before winning the West Coast Conference tournament. They lost by a point to Texas A&M early in the season and went down to the wire in a defeat against Arizona in December.

This surely isn’t the best team Few has had, but a potential 2016 NBA lottery pick in 6'11" Domantas Sabonis and an elite scorer in 6'10" senior forward Kyle Wiltjer lead it. Seton Hall hasn’t faced—let alone beaten—a combo like Sabonis and Wiltjer all season.

The Pirates, led by Isaiah Whitehead and Khadeen Carrington, can fill it up offensively. They’re a fun team, confident after winning the Big East tournament and are certainly tested after splitting 10 games this season against Villanova, Xavier, Providence and Butler.

That 5-5 mark in those games is good, no question, but ask yourselves this: Wouldn’t you expect Gonzaga to do about that well over 10 games against those same opponents?

At least, Gonzaga vs. Seton Hall is an even fight. When searching for upsets for your bracket, you can’t do any better than that.

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