March Madness Bracket 2016: Predictions for Toughest 1st-Round Games

The first round of the NCAA tournament is always fun to watch, but a few games will definitely be tougher to pick than others.

As crazy as this year in college basketball has been, it seems unlikely we see a No. 16 seed knock off a No. 1 seed, while only a few people will pick a No. 14 or No. 15 seed to win. However, there will be a bunch of close calls throughout the bracket, some of which could sink you in your pool.

If you want to remain in good shape after the first few days, check out this breakdown of some of the closest calls of Round 1.

No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 Providence

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Providence has been a popular pick early on thanks to the two-man combination of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. Dunn is the one with the upside—projected to be a top-five pick in the 2016 NBA draft by DraftExpress—while Bentil has taken over as a go-to scoring option with 21.2 points per game.

However, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports explained what makes this game interesting:

USC doesn't have the elite talent, but it does have much more balance with six players averaging at least 9.8 points per game. Julian Jacobs and Jordan McLaughlin have become an elite backcourt on their own thanks to the ability to both create for themselves as well as distribute for teammates. 

On the other hand, both these teams have struggled down the stretch. After a 17-3 start, Providence has closed with a 6-7 record. USC went just 3-7 in the final few weeks after an 18-5 start.

With relatively even offense and no momentum, the game will likely come down to which side will step up on defense. This gives the edge to Providence with its aggressive and physical approach on that end of the court. Dunn isn't just an elite point guard on offense; he also plays great defense and can help slow down USC's attack.

Prediction: Providence 71, USC 68

No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh

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Wisconsin has had a strange year, including a terrible nonconference season and a change at head coach after Bo Ryan retired. Newly named permanent head coach Greg Gard noted his pride in the players for handling the adversity, per Jeff Potrykus of the Journal Sentinel:

"

For how far they've come in the past two months is an extreme credit to them, how they've grown together. I don't know if there is another team in this field that has had a more turbulent ride. This group has overcome a lot. I'm very proud of them. ... They have done an unbelievable job handling everything that has been thrown at them.

"

This was evident in the turnaround from a 9-9 start to 11 wins in the next 12 games. A pair of double-digit losses down the stretch killed momentum a little bit, but this is still a dangerous team at this stage of the season.

Pittsburgh has had some good wins as well, but much of its success is simply due to matchup problems. The Panthers are one of the better rebounding teams in the country and can destroy a squad that struggles in this area, like Syracuse (Pitt went 3-0 against the Orange). This won't be easy to exploit against Wisconsin with Nigel Hayes, Ethan Happ and others patrolling the defensive glass.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have struggled at defending the perimeter this year, which could leave Bronson Koenig an opening for a big game.

James Robinson is one of the most trustworthy point guards in the sport, but it will take more than just steady play to pull off this upset. The Big Ten might not have gotten a lot of respect from the selection committee, but Wisconsin should do its part to represent the conference in the round of 64.

Prediction: Wisconsin 58, Pittsburgh 52

No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 9 Butler

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It's easy to understand why Texas Tech was safely in the field. According to ESPN.com, the Red Raiders had the No. 6 strength of schedule in the country with six wins over the RPI top 50. Even getting to 9-9 in a loaded conference like the Big 12 was an impressive accomplishment.

However, most of this damage came from the comfort of home in Lubbock. In fact, this squad was 5-9 in road and neutral games with just one win over a top-150 RPI opponent. After losing to TCU in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, it's clear this is a serious issue.

Butler has a great home-court advantage as well at Hinkle Fieldhouse, but the Bulldogs have proved themselves away from home with strong performances both in and out of the conference this season. They also have one of the most underrated backcourts in the country between Roosevelt Jones, Kelan Martin and Kellen Dunham.

Although the defense has been inconsistent, this is an experienced squad that is difficult to defend and good enough to advance to the next round of the tournament.

Prediction: Butler 81, Texas Tech 74

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