Will Premier League Clubs Fare Better in the 2016/17 UEFA Champions League?
It's not really worthy of celebration, but England have performed better than last season in the UEFA Champions League.
No Premier League clubs advanced to the quarter-finals in 2014/15. Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City were all knocked out before the last eight were drawn—not this year. City are flying the English flag before the 2015/16 Champions League quarter-final draw.
Spain have three clubs, Germany have two, while England, Portugal and France split the remaining three spots. It means a 100 percent improvement on last season's EPL performance. Chelsea and Arsenal were bitten by familiar foes in Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona, so City are the Premier League's last club standing.
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On paper, manager Manuel Pellegrini's side are the fifth- or sixth-best club of eight, but the lottery-like aspect of draws and unpredictable nature of football means anything is possible. The Citizens' potential is dependent on completely random factors, but the only thing they could control (i.e. them having a miniature ball in a pot) was handled vs. Dynamo Kiev.
Understanding Barca and Bayern Munich are the obvious favourites to win the Champions League, with PSG, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in the chasing pack, England would be extremely lucky and fortunate to secure Europe's most prestigious club-cup competition this term.
While City would be doing the Premier League a favour in terms of UEFA's coefficient, their progressing past the semi-final stage is not exactly a sane expectation.
One supposes the next step is investigating if England's current top-four hopefuls can improve on this year's display.
On one hand, you look at money, talent, form and relatively harsh draws for Chelsea and Arsenal, and you think getting over one club in the 2016/17 UCL quarter-finals is plausible. On the other, however, when looking at the table, there are mysterious entities lurking in, or around, the top-four spectrum.
Perennial contenders Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal are 50 percent of the equation, but 50 percent of it cannot exactly be vouched for with any level of confidence.
The Premier League's top two clubs, Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur, are all but guaranteed top-four positions. Unless calamity strikes one of their fantastic campaigns when navigating the final hurdles, the two title favourites will be automatic group-stage participants next season.
Fifth-place West Ham United are within striking distance. Entering the Olympic Stadium with the likes of talisman Dimitri Payet, the Hammers are serious threats to the current order.
Though making for exciting stories, it seems rather worrisome.
"Its reached a point with Leicester that in 6 months Danny Drinkwater will outplay Iniesta in a Champions League game and I won't be shocked
— Lakers Beat Warriors (@NickRoden23) March 15, 2016"
Spurs' European experience is less-than auspicious. In 23 seasons of Premier League football, the north Londoners have played in the Champions League just once, reaching the quarter-finals in 2010/11.
One could make the argument Tottenham have been building towards this for the past two years. Buying smartly, introducing talented youth prospects and employing one of Europe's emerging managerial talents in Mauricio Pochettino, they are poised for bigger things, but could 2016/17 be too soon?
Even when compared to Spurs, Leicester are complete and utter surprises. Thought to be relegation dwellers to start 2015/16—and now five points clear atop the EPL table—predicting what the Foxes are capable of in Europe is challenging.
Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy, N'Golo Kante and others have shown they have a level of fortitude in the Premier League and look favourites to win the 2015/16 title, but extending that form into the Champions League is an altogether different proposition.
Their manager, Claudio Ranieri, is a known European commodity, having measured UCL success with Chelsea, for example, but nothing to suggest overt dominance.
The summer transfer window will play its part, but can Leicester and Tottenham improve their squads to the point of meaningful Champions League contention in one summer? Probably not. It cannot be said because one shocked England, they are now ready to shock Europe, the mountain is too steep a climb given the time frame.
Once entering Arsene Wenger's annually underachieving Arsenal and Pep Guardiola's unknown Manchester City blueprint—the Premier League's European future becomes increasingly bleak. Gone are the days of Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United and/or Chelsea's managerial merry-go-round saving England's reputation, teams from anywhere can appear and take on the responsibility.
With Italy gaining a massive coefficient advantage next year, the gap between having three or four Champions League qualification spots is thinner than ever. Manchester City and the three UEFA Europa League clubs (Manchester United, Liverpool or Spurs) can start creating a buffer, but 2016/17 is the vital campaign for English football.
Having Leicester and Tottenham as major players in mandating the status quo—while interesting to watch—might not be that conducive to success.
Watching the Premier League devolve from a European powerhouse (having eight Champions League finalists in eights seasons from 2004/05 through 2011/12), to something beneath that, has become a sport all of its own.
The league itself is more entertaining than ever, but the EPL's entertainment value and European trophies/success do not necessarily mesh well together.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
