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NCAA Bracket 2016: Complete Guide to West Region

Jason FranchukMar 13, 2016

West Coast, best coast?

The West Region bracket was the second one announced on the CBS Selection Show on Sunday, and it is stacked. Especially when it comes to star power.

You want to talk about Duke? Look out West, young college basketball fans. How about arguably the best three-point shooter in America? Oklahoma is around with Buddy Hield.

A hot Texas A&M team will look to get to the Final Four out of the West, and we haven't even begun talking about the possibility that Texas' Shaka Smart could play his old team, VCU.

And we haven't even gotten to highlight the highlighter-colored jerseys of top-seeded Oregon or Baylor, which will start their path to Houston in what could be a very sweet matchup.

It's finally here—the NCAA tournament.

Are you ready for a deep dive? This is a full outline of the teams, the key players and some predictions for what to expect. This is your complete guide to this region.

Let's get rolling out West.

Round of 64 Schedule and TV Info

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Thursday

(Providence, Rhode Island)

Baylor (5) vs. Yale (12), approx. 2:45 p.m. Eastern, CBS

Duke (4) vs. UNC-Wilmington (13), 12:15 p.m. Eastern, CBS

Friday

(Games in Spokane, Washington)

Oregon (1) vs. TBD (Holy Cross/Southern) (16), 7:27 p.m. Eastern, TruTV

Saint Joseph's (8) vs. Cincinnati (9), approx. 10 p.m. Eastern, TruTV

(Games in Oklahoma City)

Texas A&M (3) vs. Green Bay (14), 7:20 p.m. Eastern, TBS

Texas (6) vs. Northern Iowa (11), approx. 9:50 p.m. Eastern, TBS

Oregon State (7) vs. VCU (10), 1:30 p.m. Eastern, TNT

Oklahoma (2) vs. CSU Bakersfield (15), approx. 4 p.m. Eastern, TNT

Must-See Games

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No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington

UNC Wilmington has a chance to be a major story in the West Region. Of course, if it wins—that's big enough news against one of the country's yearly powers, a defending national champion.

But we all know that Duke, while having talent, is extremely thin. The Seahawks have a very good coach, Kevin Keatts, who is a former Rick Pitino aide whose 25-7 team (out of the Colonial Athletic Association) plays fast and tries to speed teams up.

The question for the Blue Devils, even if they win, is if they are too worn down to bring it again two days later when they'd likely face No. 5-seeded Baylor. Wilmington's tallest impact players (Chris Flemmings and C.J. Bryce) are only 6'5", which leaves concerns about handling Brandon Ingram on the wing or Marshall Plumlee inside. The most noteworthy team Keatts' crew faced was Georgetown (a five-point road loss Dec. 12), so this will be a huge jump. But again, we wonder about how this crew can affect Duke longer term with a steady starting five that also has a short rotation but has nothing to lose.

No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Northern Iowa

A lot of attention will be paid to the Longhorns because, first, who would've envisioned them as such a high seed when the season started? But now that they're in the NCAA tournament for the third straight year, they look a little disappointing.

UT looked gassed and out of it during a first-round Big 12 tournament loss to Baylor. So is this the group that won 11 of its last 17 games or the one that went 4-5 in its final nine? Northern Iowa hasn't gotten nearly the hype it did last year, with Seth Tuttle in charge, but the Panthers did go 22-10.

Wes Washpun should be a neat matchup with Texas' Javan Felix as two often streaky shooters. The game will come down to UT's health, as Isaiah Taylor is battling a foot issue, and it could also really use Cam Ridley back—but he only played a couple of minutes against Baylor after a three-month absence because of a foot injury.

Top Storylines

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How familiar can it get?

Of course, the way the NCAA tournament is seeded, teams avoid conference foes for at least the first weekend. But that doesn't absolve familiarity from popping up quickly. For starters, Texas and Texas A&M could meet in the second round after playing each other over Thanksgiving weekend in the Bahamas.

That time, A&M won 84-73 with Danuel House posting a team-high 19 points (Eric Davis of UT matched him).

Texas—in just its third game with Shaka Smart as head coach and just 12 days removed from a season-opening loss to Washington in China—was obviously still figuring it out while starting the season 1-2. The Longhorns pulled within a one-possession game on a few occasions in the first round of the Battle 4 Atlantis, but the experienced Aggies were too much.

Of note, Texas also missed 15 of its 37 free-throw attempts, though their foul shooting hasn't really gotten any better (66 percent). This would be a great quick rematch of these old Big 12 rivals, who previously hadn't met since 2012. Also, if VCU can somehow make a run into the Sweet 16, Smart would get to face his old school right away.

Just how worthy is Oregon of a No. 1 seed?

Sometimes the problem with the West Coast is the time difference. How many people really got to see Oregon this year? And it's not like it had such star power, or the Pac-12 was so good, that it demanded rewatching on DVRs.

But the Ducks appear to be for real after pasting Utah in the conference tournament championship game. They shut down the Utes for the third consecutive time and again turned likely top-five NBA pick, center Jakob Poeltl, into a non-factor.

This was the first season since 2002 that Oregon won a Pac-12 regular-season title. Dana Altman has really clicked with developing this group, which is 28-6 and 5-0 against Top 25 teams this year. A guy who could really make a name for himself is 6'6" sophomore Dillon Brooks, who averages 16.8 points and went for better than his average against four of the five ranked teams UO played. Oddly, his worst performance of those came early in the season against Baylor, another West Region team.

But Oregon isn't just the No. 1 seed in the West for geographic simplicity. These Ducks can play, but they'll need to prove it.

A shallow Duke team aims for a deep run

The Blue Devils are awfully good, but they only go six deep.

But those guys are pretty good. Also keep in mind that this is a young team. Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram will have to bring it, but they'll have a chance to show off for NBA scouts. And their experience and swagger will be tough for opponents to match.

This is a team that couldn't hold a 16-point lead against Notre Dame in the second half, so it'll have to be efficient and poised. Luckily, it won't have to play back-to-back days, or we'd write it off sooner.

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Stars to Watch

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Buddy Hield, guard, Oklahoma

Even when Buddy Hield loses, he looks amazing. He did it in January with his amazing 46-point game at Kansas that the Sooners lost in triple-overtime. Then he banked in a half-court shot in the Big 12 semifinals that was just a little too late off his hand, advancing West Virginia and forcing Hield to settle for another very memorable defeat. That was a miserable 1-of-8 shooting game, and he'll have to figure it out fast. He averages 25 points, but his primary source of them—the arc—has taken a dip. He's 6-of-20 over his last three games, bringing him down to a still-darn-good 46 percent.

Grayson Allen, guard, Duke

Allen has been taking some criticism lately, sending opponents on trips before spring break. But here's a sophomore who's already a national champion and has flourished in his role as a key figure, after really just shining in the championship game last year. Allen averages 21.6 points but has been above that in four of the last five before the NCAA tournament. The 6'5" star is amazing to watch because he doesn't shy away from wanting the ball. He took a shorthanded, tired team to overtime against Notre Dame in the ACC semifinals, making 13 of 35 shots in two games.

Rico Gathers, forward, Baylor

Gathers is a massive double-double threat who may likely be playing in the NFL next year rather than continue his basketball career. He's a unique physical specimen no team will be able to prepare for easily. This is an incredible offensive-rebounding team, spearheaded by the 6'8" senior, and Gathers is tops in the country by hauling in nearly 19 percent of caroms.

Brandon Ingram, forward, Duke

Injuries and lack of depth have forced the 6'9" freshman all over the floor. But what'll be fascinating to watch with him is if his level of play can convince NBA types to draft him above LSU's Ben Simmons, a power forward who will not have this stage because of the Tigers' inability to win decent games. Ingram can make shots from all over the floor (he shot 41 percent from the arc, just like teammate Grayson Allen) and will be special at the next level. Duke could really use him being extraordinary now, too.

DeAndre' Bembry, forward, Saint Joseph's

Like Ingram, there's a chance the 6'6" Bembry can really help his stock with some good tournament performances. He had 30 points, five rebounds and four assists in a blowout win of VCU in the A-10 championship game. The junior's career has featured 14 double-doubles, and he does everything well while playing a lot of minutes. Shooting 55 percent from the floor could definitely give his team a shot to give Oregon a game in the second round.

Favorites Most Likely to Fall

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No. 4 Duke

Sure, the storyline is pretty similar this year—shallow team trying to make a run in the NCAA tournament behind some young guys and a legendary coach.

This one just seems like a tougher task, considering how much wear and tear the Blue Devils have had to deal with. They looked gassed down the stretch in blowing a double-digit (16 points) lead against Notre Dame in the ACC semifinals. Injuries have ruined this group to a degree—at least its potential. It's like a fine Corvette that has been used as a rental car. And we all know how people treat rental cars...

At least there's been some added inside help lately. Chase Jeter had seven points and six rebounds (about double both of his season averages) against Notre Dame.

This team always has an ace in the hole, coach Mike Krzyzewski, but he can't go out there and rebound—something the Blue Devils are bad at this year at the defensive end. That could be brutal in the second round against Baylor (the presumable opponent), which is fantastic at getting extra chances off missed shots.

No. 2 Oklahoma

This is a hard one. It's not like anyone's a sure thing this year. And Oregon at No. 1 seems just a little vulnerable, with all these newly discovered outside expectations. But we're going with the Sooners, because they're such a jump shot-loving team. Buddy Hield has fallen off his Stephen Curry-like clip the last three games.

Maybe it was a good thing OU didn't make it to the Big 12 title game, giving an extra day's rest. Coach Lon Kruger is no stranger to deep tournament runs, but this will still be a challenge with a group that isn't particularly inventive at the defensive end and can force up a lot of quick, unsteady shots at the other end when it's feeling panicked.

Most Likely Cinderella

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VCU

All of this talk about Shaka Smart this year, and what he's done at Texas. But let's not forget about his former school.

The Rams are still a "Havoc" steals menace that rip away 12.5 percent of their opponents' possessions. It's a little scary to consider this team when it lost to Duke and Wisconsin early in the season, when those programs were still finding their footing with new personnel. But there was obviously a learning curve for this team, too, with a new head coach.

What Will Wade has done since then puts it in solid contention for giving some teams fits, especially if it can get Oregon State out of whack when the Beavers (and star point guard Gary Payton III) weren't used to being hounded in the Pac-12.

VCU is good at limiting turnovers, too. So in close games this will be a "tough out." The program is appearing in its sixth consecutive NCAA tournament.

Who Will Make the Sweet 16?

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Oregon

The Ducks have been rolling lately, winning their last eight, and have seen enough in the Pac-12 to get them ready. Most notably, they've shut down Utah center (and future lottery pick) Jakob Poeltl in all three meetings and are coming off a blowout win against the Utes in the tournament title game. Oregon can beat you a number of ways, coach Dana Altman is a mellow, steady influence, and the Ducks are good at either creating turnovers or limiting them. Chris Boucher will be a middle at both ends of the floor, and he should have a positive learning experience from that inbounds passing gaffe in the Pac-12 semifinals.

Baylor

Perhaps no coach in the country takes more unwarranted criticism than Scott Drew, who nonetheless went to an Elite Eight in 2012 and a Sweet 16 two years later. He's no Mike Krzyzewski (whom the Bears would likely play in the second round), but his team plays hard, and Taurean Prince is an undervalued talent nationally. If Gathers is healthy again (he recorded nine rebounds each of the past two games, which makes us think he's getting over his illness), then watch out for another Baylor tournament run, especially if it keeps showing urgency to crash the offensive glass.

Texas A&M

The Aggies have seemingly all the parts to get through a couple of tough first-weekend games. Danuel House needs to limit his three-point shooting, because he's just not worth the volume for his 30 percent accuracy. But Tyler Davis is a crafty freshman who has found his niche and makes 64 percent of his shots. Getting to the SEC title game, and forcing another overtime with Kentucky, shows this team isn't going to back down despite a first NCAA tournament appearance in five years.

Oklahoma

The Sooners have had some tough luck in Big 12 play. They seemed like the obvious regular-season winner before fading after a Valentine's Day weekend home loss to Kansas. A chance was missed to reach the Big 12 tournament finals when Buddy Hield's half-court shot was disallowed. But these Sooners have a star scorer, a good supporting cast of players who know their roles and, most notably, they have coach Lon Kruger, who is no stranger to thriving this time of year. Hield needs to get his legs back, as he's struggled with his three-point shot lately. So maybe that loss to West Virginia was a bigger-picture good thing to get a little extra resting time.

The Elite Eight Matchup Will Be...

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Baylor and Texas A&M

Baylor could certainly pull off some wins, the way it rebounds the ball so ferociously. The Bears will probably be well-served to get out of the Big 12 and take their physical strength to opponents that aren't accustomed to seeing teams like them.

Texas A&M has been battle-tested at the top half of the SEC. It's forced overtime twice with Kentucky. Granted, these weren't last year's Wildcats. But a group that hasn't been to the NCAA tournament in five years looks more than ready to take its fine blend of experience and youth deep into March.

And the Final Four Team Is...Baylor

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Well, go figure.

We did this bracket and didn't see Baylor coming out of the West, either.

But it's important to note Baylor's unique size with Rico Gathers, and Taurean Prince is a physical force who will make a fine NBA player someday.

Baylor was part of the toughest league and went 22-11 (10-8). It sounds a little ho-hum, but it's still quite an accomplishment to survive and get an NCAA tournament bid—especially with Gathers battling a substantial illness that limited his action for a few weeks.

Good luck to teams trying to keep this one off the boards—or away from the school's first Final Four since 1950.

Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com.

Mitchell Headed to 1st Conference Finals 🔥

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