March Madness 2016: Predicting Favorites, Sleepers and Latest Bubble Teams

A wild college basketball season that saw a slew of teams reach the No. 1 ranking in the nation—but few teams capable of holding onto it for long—will culminate with this year's NCAA tournament. There is still the small matter of the selection committee determining the seedings for that tournament, of course.

Below, we'll take a closer look at the favorites, sleepers and bubble teams heading into Selection Sunday.

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Favorites

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When the selection committee picks its No. 1 seeds, it'll have six teams to logically choose from: Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, Virginia, Villanova and Oregon. 

Kansas and North Carolina are virtual locks after winning their respective conference tournaments. Michigan State is a safe bet to be the third No. 1 if it wins the Big Ten title game, and it could get the nod even if it loses it. That narrows the final No. 1 seed down to Virginia, Villanova and Oregon.

Let's compare their resumes:

Team	Record	RPI	SOS	Record vs. RPI Top-25	Best Wins
Oregon	28-6	2	2	5-1	Baylor, Arizona (twice), Utah (three times)
Villanova	29-5	4	21	4-4	Xavier, Providence (twice), Seton Hall (twice)
Virginia	26-7	3	1	8-3	Villanova, Louisville (twice), North Carolina

Based on that, it's hard not to give Virginia the slight edge. It's likely a moot point, as Villanova will almost assuredly end up in the East Regional as a No. 2 seed and Oregon in the West as the No. 2.

Villanova head coach Jay Wright isn't too concerned about where his team plays.

“We really don’t care about that,” he told Howie Kussoy of the New York Post. “I know we have a chance to play in the East. We would love to play in the East. But if we don’t, we’re so happy to be playing in the NCAA tournament. We’ll take whatever we get.”

The likely remaining No. 2 seeds, Oklahoma and Xavier, are threats, while Texas A&M is a team to watch, as the Aggies are as hot as any team in the nation right now despite their loss to Kentucky in the SEC title game on Sunday. 

But at the moment, Kansas appears to be the prohibitive favorite. The Jayhawks have won 14 straight games, have wins over Baylor (three times), Oklahoma (twice), Kentucky, West Virginia (twice) and Iowa State and have arguably the deepest and most talented roster in the nation, led by senior Perry Ellis and juniors Wayne Selden Jr. and Frank Mason III.

The NCAA tournament offers plenty of surprises, of course. But Kansas survived the nation's ninth-toughest schedule with just four losses, and it has a roster littered with veteran players and talent coming off the bench. The Jayhawks are peaking at the right time and will hit the tournament as a confident, dangerous bunch.

Sleepers

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Teams that play excellent defense almost always have a shot to win a national title, but sleeper teams that make deep runs generally have one of the following characteristics: a star leading the way (think UConn's Kemba Walker) or a high-scoring team that shoots the ball well and gets hot at the right moment.

When thinking of the former, Providence comes to mind. Kris Dunn (16.0 points, 6.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds per game) is worth one win on his own, and he has the potential to lead the Friars on a deep run depending on where they land. The fact that Ben Bentil can also light it up—he leads the Friars with 21.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game—makes Providence a dangerous team.

Meanwhile, Stephen F. Austin could give some teams a scare as one of the lower seeds. The Lumberjacks score 80.7 points per game (21st in the nation) and shoot 48.4 percent from the field (17th). Thomas Walkup, Demetrious Floyd and Clide Geffrard Jr. all average more than 13 points per game and give them a dangerous trio. 

If you are looking for defense in your sleeper, however, don't forget about Wichita State. The Shockers have the top defensive efficiency rating in the country, according to KenPom, and also have two excellent seniors with plenty of tournament experience in Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet.

No higher seed wants to run into the Shockers, assuming they get into the tournament, which isn't guaranteed but seems likely. 

Bubble Teams

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Here's how Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com currently sees the bubble. 

Last four byes:

• Pittsburgh
• St. Bonaventure
• Connecticut
• Cincinnati

Last four in:

• Michigan
• Temple
• Saint Mary's
• San Diego State

First four out:

• Monmouth
• South Carolina
• Vanderbilt
• Syracuse

Next out: 

• Valparaiso
• Georgia

Syracuse is perhaps the most interesting of all of the bubble teams. The Orange went 4-5 to start league play, but they did so with head coach Jim Boeheim sidelined due to suspension. With Boeheim on the bench, the Orange were 15-8 on the season.

However, Syracuse limped to a 1-5 record to finish the season, including a loss to Pittsburgh in the second round of the ACC tournament. A win in that game alone may have been enough to get Syracuse into the tournament. After all, this is a team with wins over Texas A&M, UConn, Duke and Notre Dame on the season.

Of all of the teams on the bubble, Syracuse has the most divided opinions. Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports put Syracuse's case into context:

More than a few teams will be anxiously awaiting their fates on Selection Sunday. None are likely to be more unsure than the Orange, however. 

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.