NCAA Bracket 2016: Complete Guide to East Region
The second-to-last stage of guesswork is complete. Four more days of the stuff, and then we can finally, thankfully let the teams decide.
On Sunday evening, the NCAA tournament selection committee unveiled the fruits of hours—maybe several hours—of intense intellectual labor. With its share of interesting teams and inclusions, the East Region had a unique personality among the bracket's four quadrants.
Fresh off a powerful stretch run that saw them capture the ACC regular-season and tournament titles, the North Carolina Tar Heels snagged the East's top seed.
The region also appeared to be a prime landing spot for surprise teams and sleepers. Recently upset-minded groups like Notre Dame and Michigan are here, as is one of the nation's quietest contenders in Xavier and a newly resurgent Kentucky squad. It also ended up with two play-in games. How does that happen?
Logistics aside, what are the teams, stars and stories to watch? Who are the favorites and who's ripe for a fall? All of that, not to mention all viewing information and full predictions, is available right here. Ready to tip it off? Let's get it on.
Round-of-64 Schedule and TV Info
1 of 9
Thursday
(Games in Des Moines, Iowa)
Kentucky (4) vs. Stony Brook (13), 9:40 p.m. Eastern, CBS
(Games in Raleigh, North Carolina)
North Carolina (1) vs. Florida Gulf Coast/Fairleigh Dickinson (16), 7:20 p.m. Eastern, TBS
Indiana (5) vs. Chattanooga (12), 7:10 p.m. Eastern, CBS
USC (8) vs. Providence (9), 9:50 p.m. Eastern, TBS
Friday
(Games in St. Louis, Missouri)
Wisconsin (7) vs. Pittsburgh (10), 6:50 p.m. Eastern, TNT
Xavier (2) vs. Weber State (15), 9:20 p.m. Eastern, TNT
(Games in Brooklyn, New York)
West Virginia (3) vs. Stephen F. Austin (14), 7:10 p.m. Eastern, CBS
Notre Dame (6) vs. Michigan/Tulsa (11), 9:40 p.m. Eastern, CBS
Must-See Games
2 of 9
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh
Remember what we discussed in the intro slide, about the East being replete with late bloomers and giant killers and so forth? The Wisconsin Badgers clearly represent that population segment.
On January 12, reeling from coach Bo Ryan's surprise retirement, they were 9-9 overall, 1-4 in the Big Ten and fresh off a loss to the immortal Northwestern. But they jelled down the stretch in a big way, finishing 20-12 and third in the conference.
Nigel Hayes and company have an interesting foil in Pittsburgh. If you have a good read on Pitt, please fill me in. This is a team that followed up a win over Duke with a loss to Virginia Tech. This is a team that sits 22nd nationally with a 7.4 rebound margin, per NCAA stats, but 86th in KenPom.com's defensive efficiency rankings.
In summary, these two teams are fun to watch but wrack the nerves if you have a rooting interest. This contest should be all over the board.
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 13 Stony Brook
If you spent a long weekend under a rock, welcome back! You missed an amazing performance from Stony Brook forward Jameel Warney to get the Sea Wolves to their first-ever tournament berth. More on him and them presently, but suffice it to say they might be (outside of UConn) the best story of the 2016 conference tourney season.
Kentucky was considered a down program this season until it ripped off 10 wins in its final 12 games, including avenging an earlier loss to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament final. Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis might be the best guard tandem in this tournament field.
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Michigan/Tulsa
Notre Dame and Michigan pulled off two of the biggest upsets of the power-conference tournament slate. Tulsa, facing Michigan in the "first four" game, might have been the bubbliest bubble team in the nation.
Michigan was nothing but flotsam in the loaded Big Ten after the team shut down star guard Caris LeVert for the season with injury. Then they shocked regular-season champ Indiana in the Big Ten tournament quarters and, well, here they are.
Nearly as interesting was the selection committee's inclusion of Tulsa, which lost twice to Memphis but also defeated SMU, Cincinnati, Temple and Wichita State.
The Michigan-Tulsa play-in game feels like a tiebreaker between two teams the selection committee didn't have the heart to omit. We'll see if the committee's instinct was correct, and we'll see if a high-octane Notre Dame squad can refuel the tank in time to handle the winner after an ACC tournament win over Duke bolstered their own Big Dance resume.
Top Storylines
3 of 9
Is Xavier for real?
Behind coach Chris Mack, Xavier seems to improve each season. It's had disappointments in the past, but this season has been pretty clear sailing.
The Musketeers sit in the top 36 in KenPom.com's offensive and defensive ratings. They've beaten Villanova, Providence, Butler, USC and plenty of others. They're seventh nationally in RPI rankings.
They earned a second seed in this region. It won't be easy, but if they can navigate it, this could be the program's best season in recent (or any) memory.
Which North Carolina is the real one?
Yes, the Heels won the ACC in both the regular season and tournament categories. Yes, they can score in torrents—fourth in offensive efficiency per KenPom.com and 12th nationally in scoring with 82.3 points per contest, per NCAA stats.
They're also the team that has looked fairly soft at times. Remember that home loss to Duke or several others where they simply disappeared for long stretches, failing to adequately hustle, box out or do any of those little things that great (and tough) teams do?
The personality the Tar Heels bring to the dance could sway the fate of this entire postseason.
Press Virginia Is the wild card
West Virginia and its 11-man rotation led the nation in steals per game (9.9) and wound up second in turnovers forced with 18.1 per game, per NCAA stats.
They make up a very good team. You don't finish 26-8 and second in the Big 12 (arguably the nation's toughest conference) otherwise. At the same time, though, for as good as they can be, they are also flawed. They commit nearly as many turnovers as they force, and are not a terrific shooting team. (More on that in a moment.)
Still, this is a scary bunch. They may not have the offensive firepower of some of the region's top contenders, but this No. 3. seed certainly has the defensive bona fides to give anyone—anyone—fits.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
Stars to Watch
4 of 9
Marcus Paige, Guard, North Carolina
Paige isn't here because he's bar none the region's best player. Thanks to Brice Johnson, he might not be the best player on his own team.
He's here because he might have the most potential to affect the games he's in, for better or worse.
After sitting out the season's first seven games, he seemed to hit the ground running. Then there were stretches like that four-game segment in January where he averaged 3.8 points per contest on a combined 1-of-22 shooting from the field—that's 4 percent FG shooting, if you're scoring at home. There was the seven points and three assists he managed on 2-of-10 shooting in the upset loss to Duke on February 17.
“I’m going to go get a crystal ball, put a wig on and some incense—is that what it is? Some smoke stuff,” Williams said in January when asked about Paige's slumps, per Ben Coley of the Daily Tar Heel. “See if I can go chant something and figure it out.”
Paige seemed to find his groove recently, averaging 12 points, 3.7 assists and 3.3 rebounds in UNC's final four contests, including its run to the ACC tournament title.
The fate of the region's top seed will depend largely on which way the pendulum swings for its mega-talented, but enigmatic, floor leader.
Jameel Warney, Forward, Stony Brook
In his final home game, Warney carried a bunch of Seawolves to Des Moines. That can't be easy. After years of coming up short—both in a personal and program-wide context—Warney and Stony Brook have reached their first Big Dance.
That doesn't happen without Warney's titanic 43 points on 18-of-22 shooting from the floor, 10 rebounds and four blocks to defeat Vermont 80-74.
"I saw Jameel Warney personally decide that he was done failing," wrote Rodger Sherman of SB Nation. "I wish I had the ability to make this happen when I needed it to happen. Unfortunately, I am not as good at anything as Jameel Warney is at ruining America East opponents. Now, he gets the opportunity to try to ruin somebody in the NCAA tournament."
No one's saying Warney and Stony Brook are favorites to topple a rolling Kentucky squad. If that prevents this game (and Warney's performance in it) from being must-see TV on some radars, so be it. But the ol' spidey sense says this one might be worth catching.
Trevon Bluiett, Guard, Xavier
Bluiett was the best player on perhaps the most underrated team this season.
The Musketeers went 27-5 behind a deep and balanced squad to earn a No. 2 seed in the East Region. They have plenty of good pieces, but Bluiett, who finished ninth in the Big East with 15.5 points per game and fourth with a 52.8 effective field-goal percentage, per Sports-Reference.com/CBB, is their most dynamic scorer. He can get to the rim, and he hits threes at a 40 percent clip.
If Xavier truly is a national sleeper, Bluiett is its secret weapon.
Favorites Most Likely to Fall
5 of 9
No. 3 West Virginia
Its defensive prowess is evident. Its offensive power? Less so.
WVU's 33 percent three-point shooting clip was eighth in the Big 12. And for as great as the Mountaineers are at forcing turnovers, they're almost as good at committing them; their 14 giveaways per game rank them 294th in the nation, per NCAA stats.
There's a reason Bob Huggins installed this pressure defense. When it works, so do the Mounties. When it doesn't, their plan B isn't the most robust in the world.
No. 5 Indiana
The Hoosiers had a tremendous season behind one of the school's all-time great guards in Yogi Ferrell. Tom Crean appeared to have a coaching epiphany of sorts that made the team even better after it lost top contributor James Blackmon to injury.
And yet, the Hoosiers have made themselves a hard team to trust. Friday's loss to Michigan was not good. Their defense, while improved over the course of the season, still doesn't crack KenPom.com's top 60. Was it a blip or a backslide? Until the Hoosiers and their fans find out for sure, there are safer bets out there.
Most Likely Cinderella
6 of 9
Providence
This team stumbled a bit down the stretch, and managed only a 4-5 record against teams that were ranked in the Top 25 when the Frians played them.
Their draw—they face North Carolina if they can pull a mild upset over USC in their tourney opener—does them no favors.
But this might be the most dangerous No. 9 seed in the dance.
Kris Dunn gets a lot of publicity and rightly so. He's most likely a future NBA player. He finished second in the Big East with 6.4 assists per game, first with 2.5 steals and seventh with 16 points per contest.
But let's not forget about the thunder to his lightning, forward Ben Bentil. Also a potential draft pick, Bentil actually led the conference with 21.2 points per contest and finished fourth in rebounding with 7.8 a game.
This is a potent combination, and it's not a given that they can be stopped. It'll take a concerted effort from anyone, Tar Heels included, to stifle the Providence attack.
Who Will Make the Sweet 16?
7 of 9
North Carolina
Given the Tar Heels' run of late and their overwhelming offensive talent, it's hard to see anyone, including USC or Providence, stopping the Heels in the first weekend. As noted, Providence probably has the best shot, but it's far from a lock against a team that sees six players average at least nine points per contest.
Kentucky
Murray and Ulis finished third and seventh, respectively, in scoring in the SEC. Skal Labissiere finally showed a few flashes down low to complement Alex Poythress, too. What's more, fifth-seed Indiana has simply been too inconsistent to trust, particularly on the defensive end. Chalk will prevail in this section of the bracket.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers may be the shakiest of these teams. They live by the sword and die by the same. If a team can break their press and force them to shoot jumpers on offense, they can be had.
Still, Stephen F. Austin—another defensively brilliant team—and the winner between Notre Dame and Michigan/Tulsa is not exactly a "Group of Death" for West Virginia. It wouldn't be a shock of the Irish pull an upset, but it's not quite realistic enough to call.
Xavier
They aren't flashy, but the Musketeers get the job done. They are well-coached, and they are deep. If they are as good as close observers believe they are, they shouldn't have big issues with anyone in their path to the Sweet 16.
The Elite 8 Matchup Will Be...
8 of 9
Xavier vs. North Carolina
Not to get all chalky for no reason, but the top two seeds in the East Region also happen to be its top two teams.
Like Carolina, Xavier has six players averaging at least nine points per game. With James Farr patrolling the paint, guards Bluiett and Edmond Sumner are free to do their thing, which is pretty doggone impressive (they combine for 26.8 points, 5.8 assists and 2.1 steals each contest).
The depth of each squad is what appears to set them up for success here. They can attack in waves and hold fatigue to a minimum as they play two of the most intense games of their careers over the span of three days.
That depth is what will land these two in the Elite Eight. It should be a real heavyweight battle.
And the Final Four Team Is...North Carolina
9 of 9
For all the reasons articulated, North Carolina is the favorite to win this region. Maybe all the regions.
Kansas is a great team. Ditto Virginia, Michigan State and a sneaky Oregon squad, among others.
At the same time, no other team had The Look down the stretch like the one in the powder blue. Over its last five games (all wins), its average margin of victory was 12.2 points.
It's more than a number, though. When the Heels are on, they can beat you in so many ways. The inside-out combo of Paige and Johnson make up the names on the marquee, but Joel Berry can throw up huge numbers in the blink of an eye. Justin Jackson is a bear to guard. Kennedy Meeks is a terrific glue guy down low.
They have that Roy Williams guy at the helm, too, the guy whose big-game experience is very hard to match in the college game today. His beat-you-up-the-court style is fully ingrained, and his team is fully bought-in.
Xavier is a very good team, but for all its blue-collar respectability, it may not have that extra gear. The Tar Heels have it. The power is theirs, if they choose to accept it.
All stats provided by ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
