March Madness 2016: NCAA Men's Tournament Favorites and Predictions

Last season, the Kentucky Wildcats were a juggernaut seemingly on a path destined for a championship. Whether the Cats would dominate March Madness was the center of tournament discussion. 

This season, deeming a favorite is a little trickier. 

It's been the season of parity in college basketball. The odds certainly reflect that. Odds Shark has both the Michigan State Spartans and Kansas Jayhawks as co-favorites, but even they are listed as having 5-1 odds at cutting down the nets this year. 

There's a whole host of teams who realistically appear to have a shot at the title this season:

Team	Odds
Michigan State	5-1
Kansas	5-1
North Carolina	9-1
Kentucky	10-1
Oklahoma	12-1
Villanova	12-1
Virginia	14-1
Maryland	20-1
Duke	20-1
Iowa	25-1

Obviously Selection Sunday will have a big effect on each team's tourney prospects. But with each team's path not yet decided, here's a look at a favorite who should be in the championship, one who has a shot and another who might just be a giant waiting to be slain. 

The Championship Contender: Michigan State Spartans

Paul Vernon/Associated Press

It's no surprise that the Spartans are a favorite to win the tournament. Tom Izzo has built a program that tends to overachieve in the tournament, and this year, he has a squad that has been one of the best teams in college basketball.

The Spartans have won multiple tournament games in each of the past four seasons and earned a Final Four appearance last season. 

This year, there's more to love about the Spartans. First, they're a senior-led team with tournament experience. Denzel Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello are the three leading scorers and should provide senior leadership. 

Even opposing coaches have been impressed with the Spartans this season. 

“I think they do,” Ohio State head coach Thad Matta said on whether Michigan State could win it all, per Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press. “Being in this league for 12 years now, I have had the pleasure of coaching some of the best teams that have come through here in 12 years. And I think that team right there is one of the best that I have seen.”

Calling this one of Michigan State's best team in 12 years is high praise. That run includes three Final Four teams and a team that made it to the national championship game.  

With one of the best players in the country in Valentine and a cast of seniors to support him, the Spartans bring a combination of talent and experience that will be tough to beat in March. 

Prediction: Tournament Champion

The Under-the-Radar Pick: Virginia Cavaliers

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

As you may recall, the Virginia Cavaliers wrecked a few brackets last season. 

Much like this year's iteration, UVA rode a stellar defense to a high seed in the NCAA tournament. Last year, it was a No. 2 seed. According to the latest projected bracket from CBS Sports' Jerry Palm, the Cavs could be in line for a No. 1 seed after Oklahoma lost to West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament. 

Despite Virginia's excellent defense last season, the offense sputtered when it mattered most. They mustered just 54 points in a third-round loss to No. 7 seed Michigan State and filled a lot of folks' brackets with red ink. 

As it turns out, that loss wasn't all that bad in retrospect. Michigan State carried its streak to the Final Four. Not bad for a No. 7 seed. 

This year should be different, though. First, the Cavaliers offense has improved, going from 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency last season to No. 7 this season, according to KenPom.com.

Second, the Cavaliers have a more reliable go-to scorer in Malcolm Brogdon. Having a player who can get the offense going when things break down is a big advantage in March. As ESPN Stats & Info illustrates, he did just that in the first half of their ACC tournament game against Georgia Tech:

He has scored at least 17 points in each of the last five games for Virginia. The Cavs have won all five of those games. 

With a slightly improved offense, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Cavaliers actually live up to the hype this season. 

Prediction: Final Four

The Giant Waiting to be Slain: Kentucky Wildcats

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

According to the odds, the Kentucky Wildcats are among the four favorites to win the tournament, but buyer beware on the young Wildcats. 

As usual, Big Blue has plenty of talent. Jamal Murray and Skal Labissiere are both first-round picks, according to Bleacher Report NBA Lead Writer Jonathan Wasserman's latest mock draft. Tyler Ulis would likely be a third first-round prospect for Kentucky if he weren't only 5'9" 160 pounds. 

These Wildcats shouldn't be confused with the ones of yesteryear, though. Last year, Ken Pomeroy's advanced stats pegged the Wildcats as the fifth-most efficient offensive and second-most efficient defensive team in the country. 

This year, the story is different. The Cats are still a great offensive team. They're third in that regard, however, the defense is pedestrian at No. 52. 

They've had a penchant this season for losing to less than phenomenal teams as well. Here's a look at their losses this season and where each team ranks, according to KenPom.com:

Date	Opponent	KenPom Ranking
12/3	UCLA	74
12/19	Ohio State	68
1/5	LSU	76
1/16	Auburn	210
1/30	Kansas	2
2/2	Tennessee	109
2/20	Texas A&M	20
2/27	Vanderbilt	26

Also troubling is the Wildcats' penchant for turning the ball over. Kentucky is 54th in the nation in turnovers per possession. If John Calipari's team comes out and is sloppy on offense, the defense hasn't proven that it can dig itself out of a hole. 

Prediction: Eliminated by the Sweet 16

 Statistics via TeamRankings.com for games through March 11 unless otherwise noted.