NCAA Bracket 2016: Latest Bracketology and Early Championship Odds

Even with the regular season in the bag and conference tournaments well underway, there is still so much left to decide for the 2016 NCAA tournament.

Teams that would be nowhere near the NCAA tournament on their own merit soak up spots by winning their conference tournaments (cue jealous fans staring daggers at Holy Cross). Shock losses and surprise tournament runs shift the bracket landscape. Those select few teams in the running for No. 1 seeds do what they can to stay the course.

The closer we get to Selection Sunday—set for March 13—on the calendar, the more agonizing the wait becomes for several programs and their fanbases.

The silly science of bracketology is the best way for fans to keep track of who might be in, who might be out and who might end up at the top of the Big Dance's dance card.


Bracketology

Bracket Matrix
CBS Sports' Jerry Palm
ESPN's Joe Lunardi
Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel
No. 1 Seeds	Kansas	Villanova	Virginia	Oklahoma
Last Four In	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
First Four Out	Syracuse	Tulsa	Monmouth	Florida
No. 1 Seeds	Kansas	Villanova	Oklahoma	Michigan State
Last Four In	Connecticut	Tulsa	George Washington	Wichita State
First Four Out	Monmouth	Vanderbilt	Syracuse	Michigan
No. 1 Seeds	Kansas	Villanova	Virginia	North Carolina
Last Four In	Pittsburgh	Monmouth	Vanderbilt	Saint Mary's
First Four Out	Syracuse	Connecticut	Tulsa	Valparaiso
No. 1 Seeds	Kansas	Villanova	Virginia	Michigan State
Last Four In	Vanderbilt	Saint Mary's	Connecticut	St. Bonaventure
First Four Out	St. Joe's	VCU	Valparaiso	Florida

No surprise here. Kansas is a unanimous No. 1 seed in BracketMatrix.com's bracket aggregator. Winners of 12 straight, the Jayhawks should secure a top seed even if they lose to Baylor in the Big 12 tournament semifinals on Friday.

Villanova and Virginia are No. 1 seeds on just about every other list, though prominent bracket prognosticator Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has Michigan State and Oklahoma joining Kansas and Villanova in place of Virginia.

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

The margins are razor-thin at the top, though Virginia's No. 2 RPI, per NCAA.com, and a win over Miami on Friday in the ACC tournament semis could very well make it a unanimous No. 1 seed. 

Another team that could yet break into the No. 1 category is Xavier. The Musketeers destroyed Marquette 90-72 on Thursday to earn a date with Seton Hall in the Big East tournament semifinals. Should Xavier defeat Seton Hall and then win the Big East championship against either Villanova or Providence, it could be enough for it to garner a No. 1 seed, especially if it goes 2-1 on the season against 'Nova.

As for bubble teams, Syracuse's hopes of more March Madness appear to be all but dashed after a 72-71 loss to Pittsburgh in the ACC tournament. Syracuse.com's Donna Ditota notes that even a team like Michigan, with a less impressive resume, has a better chance than the Orangemen to make the tourney since it is still playing:

"

The Wolverines are hanging around. They eked out a win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament and now meet Indiana. Michigan has a worse RPI than Syracuse and a worse Ken Pomeroy rating, but the Wolverines are still playing and hover near the pack of teams just outside the field. A win over Indiana would be huge.

"

Florida is on the outside looking in in most brackets, but it has a huge chance to improve its resume against Texas A&M on Friday. The Aggies are the top seed in the SEC tournament and rank 21st in RPI, per NCAA.com. A win for Florida there would set up another winnable game against either LSU or Tennessee in the semifinals on Saturday.

BracketMatrix has Monmouth as one of the first four teams out of the NCAA tournament. Of the three writers listed in the above table, only ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Hawks in, probably because he just can't help but love that team.

Mel Evans/Associated Press

Practitioners of the greatest squad celebrations in any sport since Stjarnan, an Icelandic soccer team, the Hawks lost to Iona 79-76 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference championship, which put a squeeze on other mid-majors looking to make the tournament, such as Wichita State, Tulsa and Valparaiso.

Joe Castiglione, Oklahoma's athletic director and a member of the selection committee, did tell the New York Times' Tim Casey that Monmouth would be heavily discussed before Selection Sunday:

"

Their résumé is filled with road and neutral-court wins, which are important factors. Those wins are over teams that will or perhaps will be part of the field. Plus, I think if you watch them, you can tell they’re a quality team. We certainly have watched them throughout the season. I can’t imagine a scenario where they won’t be discussed throughout the week.

"

Thanks to their epic bench celebrations that pretty much embody the spirit of March Madness, Monmouth will likely be a team even neutral fans are keen to hear called on Selection Sunday.

Championship Odds

Team	Odds
Kansas	5-1
Michigan State	5-1
North Carolina	9-1
Kentucky	10-1
Oklahoma	12-1
Xavier	12-1
Villanova	14-1
Virginia	14-1
Duke	20-1
Maryland	20-1
Wisconsin	25-1
Iowa	25-1
Miami	28-1
Arizona	33-1
California	33-1
Indiana	33-1
Iowa State	33-1
Oregon	33-1
West Virginia	33-1
Wichita State	33-1

Kansas and Michigan State currently hold the best odds of winning the 2016 NCAA championship, which, again, should come as little surprise. Led by Perry Ellis, Frank Mason III and Wayne Selden Jr., the Jayhawks boast a talented corps of players who can get buckets both inside and out.

Ellis is in particularly fine form down on the block. He scored 21 points and pulled down six boards in a big 85-63 win over Kansas State on Thursday.

On the outside, Mason is dealing as the team's main distributor, and the team continues to make three-pointers at an impressive clip for a Bill Self-coached squad. The Jayhawks have knocked down 26-of-56 three-point attempts in their last three games, scoring at least 85 points total in each.

The Spartans' championship hopes rest squarely on the shoulders of Naismith Player of the Year candidate Denzel Valentine. The senior guard was last seen thrashing Ohio State on March 5, racking up 27 points, 13 assists and four rebounds. The Spartans play the Buckeyes again in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals on Friday.

Al Goldis/Associated Press

Even though the Kentucky Wildcats average about a fourth seed on BracketMatrix.com, they have the fourth-best tournament odds as of Friday.

The strong coaching of John Calipari is an obvious factor. Kentucky has made the Final Four four times since 2011 and won it all in 2012. In 2014, Calipari took an eighth-seeded Wildcats squad to the championship game, only to lose to seventh-seeded Connecticut 60-54 in a thrilling contest. 

Another reason to look favorably upon Kentucky, besides the greatness of backcourt duo Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis, is freshman center Skal Labissiere. The spindly Haitian took time to find his footing in the NCAA this year, but he may have finally hit his stride at the very end of the regular season.

After notching 11 points and eight boards against Florida on March 1, he went off for 19 points, 11 boards and six blocks against LSU in the regular-season finale. CBS Sports has evidence of the block-a-thon: 

If Labissiere can continue that heady defensive play while chipping in on offense, Kentucky will have more than enough firepower to blow away most of the teams it would likely face in the NCAA tournament.

The Wildcats are back in action against Alabama on Friday for the SEC tournament quarterfinals. If Labissiere turns in another fine performance, it's time to start rethinking your NCAA tournament favorites.

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Friday, March 11 at 7 a.m. ET. A complete list of championship odds can be found here.