NCAA Bracket 2016: Complete Guide to Midwest Region
The Midwest Region may not be the strongest quadrant of the 2016 NCAA tournament field, but there's no doubt it is incredibly balanced. Eight of the 16 teams got in as automatic qualifiers, the same number that earned at-large bids, and all but two schools won 20 games this season.
Will that balance produce the region's first national champion since 2013? That depends on who emerges from Chicago in two weeks, but first teams have to avoid the potential pitfalls that come during the early rounds.
How will the Midwest shake out? Follow along as we go into great detail about what to expect in this corner of the NCAA tournament bracket.
Round of 64 Schedule and TV Info
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Thursday
(Games in Raleigh, North Carolina)
No. 8 Texas Tech (19-12) vs. No. 9 Butler (21-10), 12:40 p.m. ET, truTV
No. 1 Virginia (26-7) vs. No. 16 Hampton (21-10), 3:10 p.m. ET, truTV
(Games in Denver, Colorado)
No. 4 Iowa State (21-11) vs. No. 13 Iona (22-10), 2 p.m. ET, TBS
No. 5 Purdue (26-8) vs. No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock (29-4), 4:30 p.m. ET
(Games in Denver, Colorado)
No. 3 Utah (26-8) vs. No. 14 Fresno State (25-9), 7:27 p.m. ET, truTV
No. 6 Seton Hall (25-8) vs. No. 11 Gonzaga (26-7), 9:57 p.m. ET, truTV
Friday
(Games in St. Louis, Missouri)
No. 7 Dayton (25-7) vs. No. 10 Syracuse (19-13), 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS
No. 2 Michigan State (29-5) vs. No. 15 Middle Tennessee (24-9), 2:45 p.m. ET, CBS
Must-See Games
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Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iona Gaels
Iowa State (21-11) struggled down the stretch, losing seven of its last 12 games heading into the NCAA tournament, but when playing their best, the Cyclones can—and have—beat anyone. And a year after getting upset by UAB as a No. 3 seed, expect the focus from this veteran lineup to be at an all-time high.
But Iona (22-10) has other ideas. The Gaels are an experienced lot as well, led by senior guard A.J. English and his stat-stuffing line of 22.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game. He had 19 points in their 79-76 win over Monmouth in the MAAC title game, the Gaels' eighth straight win.
"Iowa State vs. Iona is officially going to be amazing," Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller tweeted.
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
One team is making its first appearance in the NCAA tournament in 10 years; the other managed to keep alive one of the longest tourney streaks in the nation. Which one is the favorite?
Seton Hall (25-8) last made the tourney in 2006, but after catching fire late in the season and winning its first Big East tournament title in 23 years, it comes in as one of the most dangerous squads around. The Pirates have won eight of nine, three of those wins (Villanova, Xavier twice) coming against teams that earned No. 2 seeds.
Gonzaga (26-7) is making its 18th consecutive NCAA tourney appearance, tied with Wisconsin for the fourth-longest active streak in the country. But this Bulldogs team is more like the first one in that stretch—which made the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed—than ones of recent years that were ranked much higher.
Top Storylines
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Syracuse's return (and whether it deserved a bid)
A year after self-imposing a postseason ban in the wake of pending NCAA sanctions, the Syracuse Orange make their 38th appearance and 32nd under longtime coach Jim Boeheim. That includes trips to the tourney that are no longer recognized by the NCAA, part of the punishment handed down on the program that also included Boeheim being suspended for nine games this season.
The Orange went 4-5 without Boeheim, including most of an 0-4 start to ACC play. After Syracuse lost in the ACC tournament Wednesday, dropping to 19-13, Boeheim said his team had been "punished enough" (h/t ESPN) and its performance in his absence shouldn't count against it for NCAA tourney consideration.
Whether Boeheim's argument held merit or not, the Orange are dancing. That's despite having an RPI of 71, the lowest ever for an at-large team, and that earned them a No. 10 seed ahead of five other at-large teams.
Is this Virginia's year?
The Virginia Cavaliers were the biggest surprise among the No. 1 seeds, having landed on the top line despite not winning either the ACC regular-season or tournament title. To balance things out, the selection committee gave the Cavaliers arguably the toughest No. 2 seed in Michigan State, which has eliminated them from the last two NCAA tourneys.
The Cavaliers lost seven times this season, more than in the either of previous two tourneys, but their lineup features ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon leading one of the nation's most efficient offenses and defenses.
Virginia last made the Final Four in 1984, reaching the Elite Eight most recently in 1995.
Tubby does it again
The Texas Tech Red Raiders make their first NCAA tourney appearance since 2007, earning a No. 8 seed and a matchup with No. 9 Butler on Thursday in Raleigh, North Carolina. The Red Raiders are the fifth team Tubby Smith has led into the tournament, joining Oklahoma's Lon Kruger as the only other coach to do so.
Smith is one of three coaches in the Midwest Region with 500-plus victories, along with Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Syracuse's Jim Boeheim. A fourth, Gonzaga's Mark Few, has won 464 games in just 17 seasons.
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Stars to Watch
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Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia Cavaliers
The heart and soul of Virginia's strong run the last three seasons, Brogdon is having a career year as a senior. The 6'5” guard was named the ACC's Player of the Year and its top defensive player, averaging 18.7 points per game while shooting 40.9 percent from three-point range and 88.4 percent from the foul line.
Brogdon has averaged 15.2 points in five NCAA tournament games, though the career 43.2 percent shooter has failed to shoot 40 percent in four of those games.
Jakob Poeltl, Utah Utes
Arguably the best big man in the country, the 7'0” sophomore from Austria has made major strides in his game this year. In leading Utah to its first-ever Pac-12 tournament final appearance (and its best NCAA tourney seed since 1999) he dominated with 17.6 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.
Poeltl shoots 65.6 percent, fifth best in the country, and he averaged 17.2 points and 9.3 rebounds in 18 games against teams in the NCAA field.
Denzel Valentine, Michigan State Spartans
One of the favorites for national player of the year honors, Valentine has been nearly unstoppable all season. The only thing that's slowed the 6'5” senior guard was minor knee surgery, which shelved him for four games in December and January.
Valentine averages 19.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists, the only player in the country with those numbers. In Sunday's win over Purdue in the Big Ten tournament final, he was an assist shy of his third triple-double of 2015-16.
Favorites Most Likely to Fall
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Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones were one of the big early victims in 2015, losing to 14th-seeded UAB, and they're heading in the wrong direction as the postseason arrives this year. First-year coach Steve Prohm's team has lost seven of its last 12.
Iowa State's depth has been a concern all season, with five players logging 30-plus minutes per game and only one notable contributor off the bench in Deonte Burton. There are great shooters across the lineup, but only Jameel McKay is able to contribute as an offensive rebounder.
Eliminated by a lower-seeded team in each of the previous two seasons, Iowa State could be headed for another early exit.
Seton Hall Pirates
The two tournament sites in the western portion of the country often have a few schools that have to travel quite far to play in the NCAA tournament, and this year Seton Hall is the one making the cross-country trip. The Pirates' South Orange, New Jersey, campus is 1,766 miles from Denver, where it will open play Thursday against Gonzaga.
Gonzaga's fans travel as well as any team in the country, and despite its Spokane, Washington, base being nearly 1,100 miles away, those supporters have probably already gassed up the car for the drive.
Seton Hall last placed out west in the NCAA tourney in 1991, when it went through Salt Lake City and Seattle before falling to UNLV in the Elite Eight.
Most Likely Cinderella
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Gonzaga Bulldogs
Until winning the West Coast Conference tournament title on Tuesday, Gonzaga's run of 17 consecutive NCAA appearances was in serious jeopardy. A lack of quality nonconference wins and a few setbacks in league play put the Bulldogs on the bubble for the first time in years.
Now a double-digit seed for the first time since 2011 (and just the third time in the last 15 years), Gonzaga has returned to its roots as a dangerous mid-major that could do some serious damage. That's how it made its name, reaching the Elite Eight in 1999 and the Sweet Sixteen the next two years, all as a No. 10 seed or worse.
Gonzaga's resume this year is that of a mid-major, but its talent is far greater than that. Senior Kyle Wiltjer won a national title with Kentucky as a freshman, while sophomore Domantas Sabonis has an NBA pedigree—his father, Arvydas, played for seven years with the Portland Trail Blazers—and a game to go with it.
Who Will Make the Sweet 16?
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Virginia Cavaliers
The top-seeded Cavaliers should have no problem with MEAC champion Hampton in its first game, and neither Butler nor Texas Tech should pose a serious challenge in the second round. It will help getting to play close to home, as Virginia's fans can make the short drive to Raleigh, North Carolina.
With the nation's No. 3 scoring defense and a roster full of veterans who have been through the NCAA tourney ringer before, don't expect Virginia to have any early stumbles.
Purdue Boilermakers
The fifth-seeded Boilermakers were given no favors with their opening matchup, against defensive-minded Arkansas-Little Rock. Get past that one and they'll be playing either Iona or Iowa State, both of whom love to push the tempo and score in bunches.
But what's made Purdue so successful in 2015-16 has been its ability to adapt to any playing style. It went 13-4 in games featuring fewer than 70 possessions and 13-4 in games with more than 70 trips up and down the court.
Utah Utes
Utes fans turned out in droves for the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas, and they'll be well-represented in Denver as well. That support will come in handy if it ends up facing Gonzaga in the second round, since that's the only team in the Utes' portion of the bracket that has someone who can potentially handle Jakob Poeltl.
A Poeltl/Domantas Sabonis matchup will be must-see TV if the third-seeded Utes get past Fresno State and Gonzaga is able to upset sixth-seeded Seton Hall. If Utah faces Seton Hall instead, it may end up having to trade off a disadvantage on the perimeter against the Pirates' great guards in exchange for Poeltl's dominance inside.
Michigan State Spartans
Was Michigan State probably deserving of a No. 1 seed? Probably. Will being seeded second change anything about the Spartans' approach during the opening weekend? Not a chance.
MSU is one of the hottest teams in the country, having just won the Big Ten tournament title for its ninth straight win. Expect that number to reach 11 by Sunday, as the team should easily beat No. 15 Middle Tennessee and then either Dayton or Syracuse in the second round. A Tom Izzo/Jim Boeheim coaching matchup would be fun to see, but MSU's three-point shooters would tear apart the Syracuse zone.
The Elite 8 Matchup Will Be...
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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Michigan State Spartans
They've met in the last two NCAA tournaments, with Michigan State taking both meetings by a combined eight points. It's only fitting that Virginia get a third crack at the Spartans, but this time with a Final Four appearance on the line.
The final No. 1 seed came down to Virginia and Michigan State, with the Cavaliers getting the nod despite not winning either a regular-season or conference tournament title. MSU has the latter and is the hotter team, but Virginia was deemed to have the better overall resume.
"Michigan State in Virginia's bracket for a third straight year is so cold," Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Eisenberg tweeted. "One seed or not, Tony Bennett cannot be happy."
Assuming each can outlast its Sweet 16 opponent, they can settle who's better this season on the court.
And the Final Four Team Is...
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Michigan State Spartans
Depending on where you got your calendar from, the third month may be listed as March or Izzo. Either way, the same thing applies: Michigan State's Tom Izzo knows how to coach during the most important time in the season, especially as the NCAA tournament goes deeper.
Since taking MSU to the NCAA tourney for the first time in 1998, Izzo has reached at least the Sweet 16 on 13 occasions. He's gone to the Elite Eight nine times, winning seven of those games, including last season as a No. 7 seed.
In fact, the last three times Izzo has had the lower-seeded team in an Elite Eight game (in 2005, 2009 and 2015) he's come out on top. There's no reason to expect anything less this time around.
Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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