NCAA Tournament 2016 Bubble Watch: What to Watch for Thursday
If you thought Wednesday was fun, let us help you prepare for Thursday's insanity with a full preview of the litany of games that will impact the bubble.
We had eight games on Wednesday's bubble watch, but most of those were borderline at best. Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse accounted for the majority of Wednesday's bubble drama.
For Thursday, though, we have a smorgasbord of cut-line chaos.
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There are 17 games with bubble implications—and that's without any games of note coming from the bubbliest tournament of them all (American Athletic Conference). The first Thursday and Friday of the NCAA tournament are regarded by many as the greatest two days of the year, but the final Thursday and Friday of championship week are doggone entertaining as well.
As was the case Wednesday and as will be the case Friday, we plugged each game into our Bubblometer (patent pending) to rank them in ascending order of impact on the bubble.
However, there aren't many games in which both teams are trying to cement their spot in the field, a la Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse. However, there's a good balance of games involving teams that are in and need to avoid disaster and teams that are out with a huge opportunity to change their fate.
No. 17: George Washington vs. Saint Louis (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network)
No. 16: Ohio State vs. Penn State (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
No. 15: Florida vs. Arkansas (1 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
These three games involve teams on the bubble, but not one has the potential to immediately affect the projected field by beating a bottom-feeder. For Ohio State and Florida, it's just a matter of ah-ah-ah-ah stayin' alive, because a loss Thursday would be the end of the road. Subsequent games against Michigan State and Texas A&M, respectively, could provide the wins that lead to the dance, though.
George Washington has even more work to do, as the reward for beating Saint Louis would just be a game against another bubble team (Saint Joseph's). The Colonials—despite quality wins over Virginia, Seton Hall and VCU—would probably need to also beat Dayton in the A-10 semis to feel even remotely assured of a bid.
No. 14: Colorado vs. Arizona (5:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
In an effort to be more inclusive than exclusive, let's briefly mention this game between one team that's locked into the field and another that is probably in the same boat.
Even if the Buffaloes lose this game, they still have three RPI Top 25 wins, nine RPI Top 100 wins and nary a loss to a team outside the RPI Top 100. That's quite strong when compared directly to some of the dreck just outside the projected field.
The only potential concern here—as it is for every Pac-12 team still on the bubble—is a lack of quality wins away from home. Of those nine RPI Top 100 wins, the only one to come away from Boulder was a 56-55 win at 15-loss Stanford in which the Buffaloes committed 18 turnovers. And a couple of their road losses (76-56 at Oregon; 77-53 at UCLA) were downright ugly.
They should be OK regardless, but it wouldn't be our advice to make the selection committee take another, deeper look at this resume.
No. 13: Creighton vs. Seton Hall (9:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
No need to fear, Seton Hall fans. The Pirates are dancing no matter what happens in this one. Back-to-back wins over Providence and Xavier in late February cemented that.
Creighton, on the other hand, has some nationally unrecognized bubble intrigue.
The Bluejays have ugly conventional computer numbers (RPI: 100, SOS: 86, NCSOS: 293), but they are No. 46 on KenPom.com—because seven of their 13 losses were by a margin of five points or fewer and 16 of their 18 wins were by double-digit margins, including the recent 100-59 shellacking of St. John's.
They do have a great win over Xavier and a pair of good victories over Butler and Seton Hall, but that's the full list of RPI Top 100 wins on a resume that also features a dreadful loss to Loyola-Chicago.
Beating Seton Hall would not be nearly enough to vault Creighton into the projected field, but it should set the Bluejays up with a Big East semifinal game against Xavier that could do the trick.
No. 12: Marquette vs. Xavier (7 p.m. ET, FS1)
Thanks in large part to a nonconference SOS rank of 319 that in turn produced a RPI rank of 108, Marquette is not a team on many bubble radars. The mid-January home loss to DePaul isn't a great look, either, for a team that's ranked No. 100 on KenPom.com.
But the Golden Eagles have four RPI Top 50 wins (at Wisconsin, vs. Butler, sweep of Providence) and three other wins against teams just barely in the RPI Top 100 (LSU, Creighton and Arizona State). And of their 12 losses, the aforementioned DePaul blunder is the only one against a team outside the RPI Top 105.
They've got a long way to go to make up for that dreadful computer resume, but a neutral-court win over Xavier would be one heck of a start. A subsequent win over Seton Hall would give Marquette six RPI Top 50 wins, four of which came away from home.
The only teams currently outside of our projected field with at least five RPI Top 50 wins are Stanford and UCLA, and they have 32 losses between them. If Marquette can get to six, it would have a strong case.
No. 11: Michigan vs. Northwestern (Noon ET, Big Ten Network)
Like Ohio State vs. Penn State and Florida vs. Arkansas, this is a game that a team on the wrong side of the bubble simply cannot afford to lose.
However, Michigan is closer to the field than the Buckeyes and Gators are, and Northwestern is a marginally better opponent than the Nittany Lions or the Razorbacks. If things break right elsewhere around the country, maybe a win here would be enough to get the Wolverines in.
As things currently stand, they have one of the strangest resumes in bubble history: Three RPI Top 25 wins, no other wins against the RPI Top 100 and no losses outside the RPI Top 100. And the oddest part is that their KenPom.com rank (54) is better than their RPI rank (67), even though 10 of their 11 losses came by a double-digit margin and their three best wins came by a combined margin of 12 points.
(All hail the margin-of-victory power of beating Charlotte, Youngstown State, Delaware State and Bryant by a combined margin of 197 points. KenPom.com is an outstanding tool, but Michigan and Cincinnati—and certainly others—beat the system by obliterating a handful of subpar opponents. If it actually is becoming a bigger factor in the selection committee's bracketing process, get ready to see more teams running up the score as much as possible in November and December.)
If the Wolverines win this one and beat Indiana in the Big Ten quarterfinals, they're most likely in. Lose this game and they're almost certainly out. But a win here and a loss Friday would leave things mighty murky for Michigan.
No. 10: USC vs. Utah (9 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
Popular opinion predicts USC locked up its bid Wednesday by improving to 3-0 against UCLA this season, but the win actually made USC's resume look even worse by knocking UCLA out of the RPI Top 100.
The Trojans still have five RPI Top 50 wins and nine RPI Top 100 wins, but their only respectable win away from home was a three-point, neutral-court victory over Wichita State, playing without Fred VanVleet. Furthermore, the Trojans just looked bad in some of those losses, falling to Stanford and California by a combined margin of 42 points on their last road trip of the season.
But at least they looked good in beating UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament. In losing six of their final eight regular-season games, it seemed the Trojans were a completely different team from the one that opened the season 15-3. Even if they lose to Utah, they ought to be OK as long as they aren't completely embarrassed.
No. 9: Oregon State vs. California (11:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
The Beavers averted disaster with a win over Arizona State. With a RPI rank of 31 and an SOS that ranks No. 7 in the nation, it would seem they have done enough for a bid.
But there's still the conundrum of their KenPom.com (61), BPI (62) and Sagarin (59) ranks. That's because Oregon State was outscored in Pac-12 play and finished the regular season with just 64 more points than it allowed. With only three remotely reliable scorers, no great free-throw shooters and more of an emphasis on defense than offense, the Beavers don't blow out many opponents.
They do beat a lot of good ones, though. Oregon State has three RPI Top 15 wins, six RPI Top 50 wins and 10 RPI Top 100 wins.
As we mentioned with Colorado and USC, the lack of quality wins away from home is troublesome. However, is there even a case to be made for the Beavers missing the tournament in favor of a team like Temple that—though it does have three road wins against the RPI Top 75—has a full body of work drastically worse than Oregon State's?
As long as they don't lose to California while also losing Gary Payton II to injury, it's hard to imagine the Beavers missing the dance.
No. 8: Alabama vs. Ole Miss (7 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Ole Miss has no shot at an at-large bid. Even with a win here and subsequent wins over Kentucky and South Carolina, the Rebels would only have one RPI Top 50 win, six RPI Top 100 wins and losses to George Mason and Mississippi State. Moreover, their nonconference SOS rank (297) is unforgivable.
Alabama, though? That's a team with at least a glimmer of hope.
The Crimson Tide looked a whole lot better before losing four of their final five games of the regular season—including bad home losses to Mississippi State and Arkansas and a less-than-ideal road loss to Georgia—but they do still have three RPI Top 50 wins, six RPI Top 100 wins and a nonconference SOS rank (24) that is tough to ignore.
The 13 total losses and 8-10 SEC record are also noteworthy—and not in a good way. A mediocre win over Ole Miss does nothing to help tip the scales in their favor, but a win over Kentucky would make an impact. And if it comes down to a debate between these two teams for the final spot, Alabama does have the head-to-head win over Wichita State, even though the Shockers were playing without Fred VanVleet.
No. 7: Butler vs. Providence (2:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
This is a phenomenal game, but is it really a bubble tilt?
Butler and Providence were both perilously teetering on the bubble as recently as two weeks ago, but each closed the regular season on a three-game winning streak—Butler picking up solid wins over Seton Hall and Georgetown; Providence avoiding disaster with wins over St. John's, DePaul and Creighton.
As a result, both the Friars and Bulldogs are in the mid-40s in the RPI rankings, mid-60s in SOS rankings and have four RPI Top 50 wins apiece.
As was the case for Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse, we have the slight curiosity of one team (Providence) owning a season sweep over the other. But at least Providence's two best wins (at Villanova, vs. Arizona) are better than Pitt's (at Notre Dame, vs. Duke), and the team it's looking to beat for a third straight time is actually in the RPI Top 50.
The loser should be fine either way, but one of these teams has to pick up its 10th loss of the season. The Friars can probably least afford it because of their three bad losses to Marquette (twice) and DePaul, but it would take an awful lot of bubble teams making runs before we're worried about not seeing Kris Dunn in the tournament.
No. 6: San Diego State vs. Utah State (3 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)
We already have quality mid-majors in Wichita State, Saint Mary's, Monmouth, Valparaiso and Hofstra out of their respective conference tournaments and crossing their fingers so hard it might affect their shooting stroke. The last thing we (or rather, they) need is to add another team to the list that might have a better resume than the rest.
San Diego State and Wichita State have extremely similar resumes. Both are 1-4 against the RPI Top 50, are 3-3 against teams in the RPI 51-100 range, have nine true road wins and played a very tough schedule. But SDSU's best win (neutral court against Cal) might be better than Wichita State's best win (home against Utah), and the Aztecs have a better nonconference SOS rank (No. 2) than the Shockers (No. 12).
Then again, Wichita State has already suffered all the losses it will suffer, and a loss to Utah State in the Mountain West quarters wouldn't do San Diego State any favors. But how far would the Aztecs fall on the mid-major bubble hierarchy?
For the sake of all teams on the bubble, let's just hope San Diego State wins this tournament to avoid any argument over whether the MWC should be a multiple-bid league.
No. 5: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Georgia Tech shouldn't even be here. After trailing Clemson by 18 with less than nine minutes remaining, the Ramblin' Wreck somehow forced overtime to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Survive and advance, though, right? Wins are exponentially more important than style points at this juncture in the season, and Georgia Tech improved to 19-13, jumping eight spots to No. 63 in RPI.
Those aren't great numbers—especially for a team that went 8-10 in conference play while facing just one game each against Virginia, Miami, North Carolina and Duke—but all the numbers would look much better with a quarterfinal win over UVA.
The Yellow Jackets have already beaten the Cavaliers once this year and have three other RPI Top 50 wins (Notre Dame, Pitt and VCU). A second win over the Wahoos would be huge, but it would only be their second RPI Top 35 win, so it might only be enough to get them to the projected field's doorstep. One more win to reach the ACC Championship Game, though, should lock them up.
No. 4: Virginia Tech vs. Miami (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Three weeks ago, Virginia Tech was on nobody's radar. Even if you jotted down the Hokies with optimism after wins over Virginia and Georgia Tech got them to 12-6 overall with a 4-1 ACC record, they were out of sight and mind after losing seven of their next eight.
But then they beat Florida State, Pittsburgh and Miami in the process of closing the regular season on a five-game winning streak, improbably earning the No. 6 seed in the ACC tournament with a 10-8 conference record. And then they put up 96 points against Florida State on Wednesday night to advance to the ACC quarterfinals.
(Side note: The droves of CBB folk on Twitter who were complaining about the number of whistles in that game clearly hadn't done their homework. Virginia Tech leads the nation in free-throw rate, according to KenPom.com, and entered the night averaging 27.0 free-throw attempts per game. What exactly were you expecting to happen?)
Now, the Hokies have two RPI Top 10 wins, seven RPI Top 100 wins and only one unforgivable loss—the season-opening home game against Alabama State.
Would a second win over Miami and a third win against the RPI Top 10 be enough to undo that damage from four months ago?
For the sake of bubble context, Ole Miss got one of the last four at-large bids last season, despite 13 total losses, home losses to Charleston Southern, TCU and Western Kentucky and not a single win against the RPI Top 20. Given that precedent, one would think another win over the Hurricanes would send the Hokies dancing, but we'll reevaluate if and when it happens.
No. 3: Washington vs. Oregon (3 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
Of the bubble teams already in action this week, most haven't looked good. Pittsburgh's win over Syracuse was important, but it was ugly for the Panthers and even worse for the Orange. Wichita State, Monmouth, Saint Mary's and Valparaiso all lost.
But Washington broke from the mold with a big statement in a 91-68 win over Stanford on Wednesday afternoon.
The Huskies still have a lot of work to do—they only have one RPI Top 30 win, and it came in China against Texas exactly four months before Selection Sunday—but they picked a great time to have their most dominant performance of the season. Moreover, they did so with Andrew Andrews scoring just 14 points, adding to the argument that they're more than just a one-man show.
It was good for the eye test, but the win did little for Washington's computer resume, merely jumping from No. 83 to No. 79 in RPI. A win over Oregon, though, would be huge. Not only would it bump Washington to somewhere in the vicinity of No. 65, it would be its second RPI Top 25 win and 10th RPI Top 100 win of the season.
The Huskies would be advised to put a cherry on the sundae with a win over Arizona or Colorado in the Pac-12 semis, but just getting there will put them squarely on the bubble.
No. 2: Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina (Noon ET, ESPN)
Wednesday afternoon's win over Syracuse was crucial for the Panthers, but it did push the Orange even further away from the RPI Top 50, thereby slightly devaluing what still stand as three of Pitt's five best wins of the season. Yet, it was a good enough win for the Panthers to leapfrog both Syracuse and South Carolina on our seed line and they live to fight another day, so they'll take the good with the bad.
With just two RPI Top 60 wins, losses to Clemson, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech and a nonconference SOS rank of 192, Thursday's contest with North Carolina should not be viewed as simply an opportunity to further enhance a bid that is already assured.
Pittsburgh is still fighting for its bubble life.
Beat the Tar Heels and there is a 100 percent chance the Panthers are dancing, but a loss would leave them vulnerable to other bubble teams and bid thieves.
No. 1: Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee (3:25 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Nothing quite like running into a team that just dropped 97 points on Auburn in a 38-point beatdown.
As was the case in 2014-15, Vanderbilt disappointed for much of the season, repeatedly losing games against quality opponents by slim margins. But the Commodores finally turned a corner in February with home wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M and a road win over Florida. All of a sudden, they had two quality wins and a total of seven RPI Top 100 wins to go along with a solid computer resume (RPI: 51, KP: 23, SOS: 28).
A loss to Tennessee, though, would unravel the entire web they've been weaving to get to a projected No. 10 seed.
Vanderbilt already has two RPI sub-100 losses (at Arkansas, at Mississippi State), so getting to 13 total losses with a third bad loss would not be a great idea for a team with only two RPI Top 50 wins. The Commodores have made a lot of progress in the past six weeks, but they were barely even on the radar at the end of January.
Beating the Volunteers isn't the end of Vanderbilt's arduous SEC journey. It would be great if the Commodores ran into Kentucky or Texas A&M in the quarterfinals, setting up a "Great Win or Acceptable Loss" scenario, but they would instead come up against LSU in a game that both teams desperately need to win.
Buckle up for some SEC bubble chaos over the next two days.
RPI and SOS rankings courtesy of WarrenNolan.com and current through the end of play Wednesday. KenPom rankings come from KenPom.com.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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