NCAA Tournament 2016: The Biggest Potential Cinderella Teams in the Field of 68

Cinderella stories are among the biggest attractions of March Madness and its single-elimination format. The thrill created when a little-known school from a minor conference knocks off an established powerhouse can be felt by ardent fans and the casual observer alike. 

For a team to be considered a Cinderella, it must satisfy three requirements: 1. It must have a double-digit seed. 2. It cannot be a member of one of the eight major basketball conferences. 3. It cannot have a national basketball reputation.

Gonzaga, for example, has developed too much of a basketball reputation to be considered a Cinderella, and Tulsa's membership in the multibid American Athletic Conference eliminates it from consideration. Cinderellas are teams like Georgia State and UAB, which upset Baylor and Iowa State, respectively, in last year's NCAA tournament.

Who will it be this year? Monmouth's bid for Cinderella status ended before it started as the Hawks failed to be selected for the NCAA tournament.

We present 10 teams that could fill the Cinderella role this season—teams you may know little about but who have the wherewithal to stun one of the sport's giants. The further such a team goes in the tournament, the more it takes on the Cinderella characteristics, suddenly living the life of royalty until the clock strikes midnight.

Middle Tennessee

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Location: Murfreesboro, Tennessee

Record: 24-9

Conference: Conference USA

Best wins: Belmont

NCAA tournament seeding: 15

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Michigan State

Middle Tennessee is not the postseason threat regular-season Conference USA champion UAB would have been, but the Blue Raiders may have enough talent to pull off an early upset.

Giddy Potts is the reason Middle Tennessee has Cinderella potential. Three of the Blue Raiders' losses came during the seven games Potts missed—first for academic reasons and later because of a concussion. Besides having a fabulous nickname (his real first name is Nathanial), Potts is Middle Tennessee's leading scorer at 15.0 points per game and may be the country's best outside shooter.

He made four of five three-point shots in the conference tournament title-game victory over Old Dominion, and is shooting 50.3 percent from long range for the season, which ranked first in the nation, according to NCAA.com, in games played through March 12.

The Blue Raiders don't have any wins over high-profile teams, but they held their own in a loss to Virginia Commonwealth as they trailed by just three points with a minute remaining. Middle Tennessee was without Potts when it nearly won a road game against South Dakota State, which went unbeaten at home this season.

The Blue Raiders were tied with just seven minutes remaining and lost by four. With Potts on the scene to throw in a few three-pointers, Middle Tennessee might have won that game. If he hits a bunch of long-range shots in the NCAA tournament, maybe the Blue Raiders can play the Cinderella role.

Yale

Bryan R. Smith/Associated Press

Location: New Haven, Connecticut

Record: 22-6

Conference: Ivy League

Best wins: Princeton

NCAA tournament seeding: 12

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Baylor

Yale is in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1962, which was two years before UCLA won its first NCAA title. However, most of the news surrounding the Bulldogs lately has revolved around starting guard Jack Montague and his departure from school last month, as reported by the New Haven Register.

Yale is 7-1 without Montague and has won 17 of its last 18 games, and the Ivy League has had some postseason success in recent years. Harvard upset No. 3-seeded New Mexico in 2013 and No. 5-seeded Cincinnati in 2014, and Cornell got to the Sweet 16 in 2010 when seeded No. 12.

None of those three teams had a better Ivy League record than this season's Yale squad, and Justin Sears' presence gives Yale an outside shot at an upset. Sears, a 6'8" senior forward, is a three-time first-team All-Ivy selection who was named the conference player of the year for the second straight season.

After Yale's 80-61 loss to Duke in November, Blue Devils coach Mike Kzyzewski said, according to the Yale website, "Sears is a really good player. He would be an outstanding player in our league (the ACC)." 

The Bulldogs hope Sears can shake off his recent shooting slump, as he totaled just nine points on 3-of-14 shooting over the final two games combined.

The Bulldogs lack any eye-catching victories, but their 71-69 road loss to SMU in November suggested they can compete with power-conference teams. Yale held a 10-point, second-half lead in that game against the Mustangs, who lost just one home game this season. 

Iona

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Location: New Rochelle, New York

Record: 22-10

Conference: Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Best wins: Monmouth (twice)

NCAA tournament seeding: 13

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Iowa State

Iona provides two reasons it could be a Cinderella team: The Gaels are hot, and the Gaels play a style that may confound opponents.

The season did not start well for Iona, which lost its first two games of the season to Valparaiso by 25 points and to Oregon State by 20 points. The Gaels are a different team now, having won 12 of their past 13 games and eight in a row. The current eight-game winning streak includes a road win over Monmouth and a neutral-court win over Monmouth—the team that captured the nation's attention early in the season by beating UCLA, USC, Notre Dame and Georgetown.

What you will notice when you watch Iona (and you will want to watch Iona) is that the Gaels push the ball at any opportunity and throw up a lot of three-pointers. The Gaels scored more than 100 points three times this season (even losing one of them) and have scored more than 72 points in each of their past 12 games.

Not only do the Gaels shoot in a hurry, but they also shoot it from distance in coach Tim Cluess' attack. The Gaels have attempted 860 three-pointers this season, more than any other team in the NCAA tournament. Nearly half of their shots (44.2 percent, to be exact) are from beyond the arc. A.J. English, the team's leading scorer at 22.4 points a game, attempts 9.1 three-point shots per game and make 37.2 percent of them. Isaiah Williams tosses up 7.4 three-pointers per game, and what makes his outside shooting interesting is that the 6'7" Williams is the team's leading rebounder.

Then there is the case of Jordan Washington. Washington averages just 18.3 minutes per game but averages 13.8 points—second on the team. That's getting it done in a hurry.

Iona has demonstrated it can compete in the postseason. It has won only one game in its 10 NCAA tournament appearances, but seven of those losses were by six points or fewer and four were by two points or fewer. The Gaels got blown out by Ohio State in their last NCAA tournament appearance in 2013, but should have beaten BYU in 2012, letting a 25-point lead slip away in a six-point defeat.

Stephen F. Austin

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Location: Nacogdoches, Texas 

Record: 27-5

Conference: Southland

Best wins: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (three times)

NCAA tournament seeding: 14

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: West Virginia

A quick glance at Stephen F. Austin's season provides no reason to believe the Lumberjacks can compete against the nation's best teams. A 42-point loss to Baylor and a defeat at the hands of Arizona State, which finished 11th in the Pac-12, do not bring glass slippers to mind. The fact the Lumberjacks' best wins came against a school known as Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is no reason to boast either.

However, a couple of things suggest that maybe, just maybe, Stephen F.Austin can pull off a shocker.

First of all, the Lumberjacks have won 20 games in a row, the country's longest active winning streak, and they have won each of their past nine games by more than 20 points. Of course, beating the tar out of the likes of Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian is not the same as facing teams like Kansas and Oklahoma on a regular basis, but such domination is noteworthy at any level.

The other factor that hints of potential Cinderella status is that this team knows what this NCAA tournament thing is all about.

As a No. 12 seed last year, Stephen F. Austin trailed fifth-seeded Utah by just two points with 40 seconds remaining, but the Lumberjacks missed their final four shots and lost by seven. Eight of the top nine scorers from that Stephen F. Austin squad are back this season, and that includes Thomas Walkup—a 6'4" swingman who was named Southland Conference Player of the Year for the second straight season.

Walkup is one of two current starters who were starters on the 2014 Lumberjacks team that, as a No. 12 seed, beat fifth-seeded Virginia Commonwealth in the NCAA tournament. This season's Lumberjacks may not be as good as their 2014 version, which finished 32-3, but these players and coach Brad Underwood, now in his third season as the Lumberjacks head coach, know what it takes to perform well in March.

Chattanooga

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Location: Chattanooga, Tennessee

Record: 29-5

Conference: Southern

Best wins: Georgia (on the road), Dayton (on the road)

NCAA tournament seeding: 12

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Indiana

Can a team that lost to both Furman and North Carolina-Greensboro by 15 points apiece be considered Cinderella material? The simple answer is, yes, and it does not require a lot of investigation to understand why.

Proof of the Mocs' quality can be found in games played back in November and December. In its season-opener, Chattanooga knocked off Georgia on the Bulldogs' home court—the same court on which Georgia beat South Carolina by 13 points as part of its bid to reach the NCAA tournament.

More impressive than that was Chattanooga's Dec. 12 road victory over Dayton–an NCAA tournament team. That win is particularly significant because it came after Mocs forward Casey Jones, the preseason Southern Conference Player of the Year, was lost for the season after just eight games with an ankle injury.

If the Mocs still had Jones, they would be perfect Cinderella material. Without him, they are not quite as imposing, but they're still capable of challenging a top team if things fall their way.

The Mocs don't have any stars, and they did not crush the opposition in the Southern Conference tournament, with none of the three victories being by more than six points. However, they are a team of juniors and seniors who come up with the right plays at the right time. You get the impression if they find themselves in position for a major upset in the NCAA tournament, they will know how to handle the situation.

Green Bay

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Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin

Record: 23-12

Conference: Horizon League

Best wins: Akron, Valparaiso

NCAA tournament seeding: 14

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Texas A&M

Normally a team that finishes fourth in a one-bid conference does not pose much of a postseason threat. But this potential Cinderella story is more about the conference than the team representing it.

Green Bay was just 11-7 in regular-season conference play, but that conference is the Horizon League, which has been the birthplace of surprising NCAA success stories. Over the past 13 years, Horizon League teams have a 19-16 record in the NCAA tournament, and five times in that span, a Horizon League team reached the Sweet 16.

A lot of that success was provided by Butler, which reached the national championship game in 2010 and 2011. But the Bulldogs did not overwhelm their Horizon League foes in 2011, finishing in a three-way tie for first with a 13-5 record.

Butler's postseason runs were preceded by other unexpected Horizon League success. Cleveland State was seeded No. 13 when it knocked off No. 4-seeded Wake Forest in 2009. Wisconsin-Milwaukee was seeded No. 11 when it eliminated No. 6 Oklahoma in 2006, and Milwaukee was seeded 12th when it beat both No. 5-seeded Alabama and No. 4-seeded Boston College in 2005. Milwaukee had nearly pulled off a similar upset in 2003, when, as a No. 12 seed, it missed a layup at the buzzer in a one-point loss to No. 5-seeded Notre Dame.

Just last year, Valparaiso, a No. 13 seed, trailed by a point with less than two minutes left in a three-point loss to No. 4-seeded Maryland.

If Valparaiso had made it back to the NCAA tournament this year, the Cinderella potential for the Horizon League would have risen considerably, because the Crusaders were the best team in the conference.

However, Green Bay beat Valparaiso in the conference tournament, and the Phoenix's only defeat in the past nine games was a two-point loss to Valparaiso when Valpo's Shane Hammink made a three-point shot with four seconds left.

Green Bay's aggressive up-tempo style with an emphasis on creating turnovers could cause problems for a first-round opponent feeling the pressure of being the favorite. The Phoenix rank sixth in the nation in scoring at 84.2 points per game, according to NCAA.com, and they scored 90 points or more 12 times. Just as significant is the fact the Phoenix rank second nationally in steals per game (9.8), with Green Bay's leading scorer Carrington Love third in the country in steals (2.57 per game).

Add in the fact the Phoenix lead the nation in free-throw attempts in games played through March 12 and you have a team that can get on a roll and get on your nerves. The Phoenix trailed Wisconsin by 30 points with less than 13 minutes left on the Badgers' home court in December, but Green Bay cut the margin to three with 1:45 remaining before the Badgers escaped with a five-point win.

Northern Iowa

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Location: Cedar Falls, Iowa

Record: 22-12

Conference: Missouri Valley

Best wins: North Carolina, Iowa State, Wichita State (twice)

NCAA tournament seeding: 11

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Texas

A pretty strong argument can be made that Northern Iowa should not be categorized as a potential Cinderella. After all, the Panthers' were ranked 11th in the final AP poll last season, and with wins over North Carolina, Iowa State and Wichita State this season, this team does not have the look of a wide-eyed small-time program.

However, Northern Iowa has been to the NCAA tournament only four times, with just one victory, and the Missouri Valley Conference is not considered a power conference, especially since Creighton jumped ship.

The team that won the regular-season Missouri Valley title by four games this season (Wichita State) barely made it into the NCAA tournament as a No. 11 seed forced to play a preliminary-round game. All four Northern Iowa players who average double figures in scoring come from Iowa, so head coach Ben Jacobson does not have a national recruiting base.

As a result, Northern Iowa is placed among the Cinderella hopefuls, perhaps with an asterisk by its name.

In whatever category Northern Iowa is placed, it clearly is capable of outperforming its seeding. The Panthers earned their lowly NCAA seeding by losing six of seven games, including losses to Missouri State and Indiana State, during a midseason slump that left them with a 10-11 record. They finished tied for fourth in the conference, so a single-digit seed was not warranted.

However, the Panthers are rolling at the moment, having won 12 of their final 13 games, including a victory over Wichita State that ended the Shockers' 43-game home winning streak and a neutral-court victory over Wichita State in the conference tournament that nearly ended the Shockers' chances of getting into the NCAA tournament.

The Panthers are not a spectacular show, and they had no one named to the first-team all-conference team. But they are a good defensive team that doesn't beat itself. Northern Iowa ranks second nationally in fewest fouls committed per game (15.1) and eighth in fewest turnovers per game (9.8), according to NCAA.org.

South Dakota State

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Location: Brookings, South Dakota

Record: 26-7

Conference: Summit League

Best wins: TCU (on the road), Minnesota (on the road), IP-Fort Wayne

NCAA tournament seeding: 12

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Maryland

Mike Daum is the prime reason South Dakota State is among the Cinderella possibilities. A 6'9" redshirt freshman, Daum does not start and only plays roughly a half-game. Yet he leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, gets to the line a lot, is a matchup problem for nearly any opponent and has been particularly productive lately.

Daum plays just 20.5 minutes per game, but that's enough time for him to average 15.2 points on 56 percent shooting, including 45 percent on three-pointers, to go along with 6.1 rebounds per contest. He leads the team with 5.2 free-throw attempts a game and has hit 82 percent of them.

Over the past nine games Daum averaged 19.3 points on 60.6 percent shooting from the field, including 50 percent from long range, while playing only 23 minutes a game. The kid even has a nickname: The Dauminator. 

Why he doesn't play more is anyone guess, but you tend to trust Scott Nagy, who is in his 21st season as the Jackrabbits head coach and has his team in the NCAA tournament for the third time in five years.

If the NCAA tournament games were played in Brookings, South Dakota, the Jackrabbits might be favored because they have won 29 straight home games. Away from home they are less dominant, but they did beat TCU and Minnesota on the road this season.

Knocking off the worst teams from power conferences may not portend postseason greatness, but doing it on the road indicates South Dakota State won't be intimidated, especially with three seniors in the starting lineup.  

If the RPI rankings carry any weight with you, it is worth noting the Jackrabbits have a remarkably high RPI of 28, which is better than Iowa, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Providence, Gonzaga, Butler, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and South Carolina. How they achieved that ranking without any wins over top-50 RPI teams is a mystery, but that's another story.

Stony Brook

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Location: Stony Brook, New York

Record: 26-6

Conference: America East

Best wins: Princeton, Hofstra

NCAA tournament seeding: 13

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Kentucky

Stony Brook is quintessential Cinderella material: The Seawolves have never played in the NCAA tournament before. A lot of people have never heard of Stony Brook University and don't know where the campus is located. (It's on Long Island, about 60 miles east of Manhattan.) The America East Conference has such a low profile, even hard-core college basketball fans would be hard-pressed to name half the teams in the conference. Last, but certainly not least, the Seawolves are pretty good.

Stony Brook has that one ingredient Cinderellas need: a star player. Seawolves 6'8" forward Jameel Warney was named the conference player of the year for the third consecutive season, and even in the America East Conference that's pretty darn impressive. He came up big in the America East tournament title game against Vermont, pouring in 43 points on 18-of-22 shooting, collecting 10 rebounds and blocking four shots while committing just one foul and one turnover.

The Seawolves did not beat any teams from power conferences, but the one result that attracted attention was their overtime loss at Vanderbilt. Stony Brook held a 10-point lead five minutes into the second half of that road game, but could not hang on.

A solid defensive team that rebounds and shoots well, Stony Brook could pose a problem for a team that does not know how good the Seawolves and Warney are.

Arkansas-Little Rock

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Location: Little Rock, Arkansas

Record: 29-4

Conference: Sun Belt

Best wins: San Diego State (on the road), Tulsa (on the road)

NCAA tournament seeding: 12

Opening NCAA tournament opponent: Purdue

Regardless of the conference and the level of competition, a 29-4 record proves Arkansas-Little Rock is a pretty good team. More indicative of the Trojans' quality are the road victories over San Diego State and Tulsa. The Aztecs had won 32 of their previous 33 home games before the loss to Little Rock, and Tulsa has beaten Connecticut, Cincinnati and Temple on the same floor on which the Trojans won.

The Trojans were more than just competitive in their road loss to Texas Tech, leading that game midway through the second half and trailing by just three with 4:20 remaining before losing on the same floor where the Red Raiders later beat Texas, Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma.

Little Rock plays outstanding defense, ranking third in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 59.3 points per game, and ninth in field-goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 38.5 percent from the field. San Diego State shot just 28.3 percent against Little Rock. The Trojans' defensive prowess is not surprising when you discover their first-year head coach, Chris Beard, was a Bobby Knight assistant for seven years at Texas Tech.

Despite winning the regular-season title by two games, the Trojans did not have a single player on the first-team all-conference team. They rely on balance and the floor leadership of senior Josh Hagins—the team's leading scorer (13.0 points per game) and assist man (4.7 assists per game).

Little Rock has won only one NCAA tournament game, and that was back in 1986 when the Trojans stunned third-seeded Notre Dame. But this might be the Trojans' best team ever.