Pac-12 Tournament 2016: Preview and Predictions for Every Team
Although the conference sometimes struggles to get the respect it deserves, the 2016 Pac-12 tournament will display some of the best teams in the nation.
The league plays most of its games late at night, but the casual fan will learn soon enough that this group contains at least four legitimate Final Four contenders and up to seven teams battling for a spot in the NCAA tournament. If you aren't paying attention yet, your March Madness bracket will suffer.
Meanwhile, one of the great things about the Pac-12 tournament has been the parity, with five different teams winning in the past five years. With elite talent at the top and the possibility for upsets, the upcoming week will be interesting.
You can view the entire bracket at the conference's official website, but follow along here for everything you need to know about the 12 teams set to battle at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.
No. 12 Washington State
1 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 5 Colorado (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET)
This has been a year to forget for Washington State (9-21, 1-17). The Cougars haven't won a game since Jan. 3, which represented the only victory in conference play. While there were some close calls along the way, only four of the 17 losses were even by single digits.
Josh Hawkinson has the ability to fill up the stat sheet, finishing the regular season with an average of 15.6 points and a league-best 11 rebounds per game. Unfortunately, he hasn't gotten much help from the rest of his teammates on either end of the court.
Anything can happen in college basketball, but it would be surprising to see Washington State even get one win this week in Las Vegas.
Prediction: First-round exit
No. 11 Arizona State
2 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 6 Oregon State (Wednesday, 11:30 p.m. ET)
While Arizona State (15-16, 5-13) is just one spot out of last place, there is a significant gap between the No. 11 and No. 12 seeds. Unlike Washington State, the Sun Devils have been competitive for much of the season and could be a legitimate threat in the postseason.
Of course, the team has still struggled this year, especially on the defensive end. Pac-12 opponents averaged 78.2 points per game against Arizona State, including four games of at least 90 points. While there is a decent amount of balance behind leading scorer Tra Holder, there simply isn't enough offense to win a shootout against quality opponents.
The Sun Devils have a chance to surprise people this week, but the more likely scenario is an early exit after one game.
Prediction: First-round exit
No. 10 UCLA
3 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 7 USC (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)
There is no denying this has been a disappointing season for UCLA (15-16, 6-12).
The Bruins have a lot of talent on the roster, with five players averaging double-digit points. Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton can score at a high rate, while Tony Parker and Thomas Welsh can be dominant at times in the post. This overall effort helped the team earn wins over Kentucky and Arizona, among others, earlier in the year.
Things have fallen apart down the stretch, with a 3-9 record in the final 12 games, but the talent to win games is still there. The big question at this event will be the effort; either UCLA will give up and get the year over with or fight to extend the season as long as possible. We won't know until the Bruins take the court Wednesday.
Prediction: Advance to quarterfinals
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No. 9 Stanford
4 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 8 Washington (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Stanford (15-14, 8-10) might have been a different team at full strength. With Reid Travis going down early in the season, Christian Sanders being suspended indefinitely and a few other key rotation players dealing with various ailments, this is not the lineup the Cardinal expected to have at the start of the year.
What is left is a mostly young team looking to end the season on a high note. Rosco Allen is a senior, but Dorian Pickens, Marcus Allen, Michael Humphrey and others should be back next year, making this tournament a good opportunity to build on the future.
Considering this team has wins over each of the top three seeds in the Pac-12, Stanford should not be overlooked this week. The outside shooting has been a major problem in conference play (30.7 percent from three-point range), but if the shots are falling, a surprise run is not out of the question.
Prediction: First-round exit
No. 8 Washington
5 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 9 Stanford (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Like many teams in the bottom half of the standings, it has been a bad end to the season for Washington (17-13, 9-9). The Huskies started 7-3 in the conference and put themselves in realistic contention for a spot in the NCAA tournament. However, things quickly went south, and Washington finished with six losses in the final eight games.
With that said, Washington remains a team no one will want to face in the postseason. According to KenPom.com, the squad has the fourth-fastest tempo in college basketball, first among major-conference teams. This leads to high scoring totals, most notably Andrew Andrews, who led the Pac-12 with 21.2 points per game this season. He also averaged 5.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game during an excellent senior season.
The Huskies are difficult to contain, which could lead to success against Stanford in the first round, as well as against the higher seeds in later rounds. If Andrews and Dejounte Murray can get hot, this is a team that can ruin a lot of plans in the conference tournament.
Prediction: Advance to quarterfinals
No. 7 USC
6 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 10 UCLA (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)
Like Washington, USC (20-11, 9-9) excels with its fast-paced approach and ability to light up the scoreboard. Another similarity is that the last few weeks haven't gone as planned, with six losses in the final eight games.
The difference is the Trojans have no truly bad losses and enough good wins to remain in consideration for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. One key has been the team's balance, which features six players averaging double-digit points. Julian Jacobs and Jordan McLaughlin also do a great job of setting up their teammates, combining for 10.3 assists per game this year.
On the down side, the recent stretch to end the year remains a concern, as well as the inability to control rebounds on the defensive end. A team such as UCLA—which faces USC in the first round—could get a lot of extra opportunities on offense by attacking the glass.
Although the Trojans will need a strong effort in Las Vegas to guarantee their spot in the Big Dance, even a first-round victory will not be easy for this struggling squad.
Prediction: First-round exit
No. 6 Oregon State
7 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 11 Arizona State (Wednesday, 11:30 p.m. ET)
If things go well this week, Oregon State (18-11, 9-9) could be headed to its first NCAA tournament since 1990. This will be fitting for Gary Payton II as he concludes his impressive senior season.
The guard might be one of the best all-around players in all of college basketball, filling up the stat sheet with 15.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.4 steals per game. All of these averages ranked among the top 10 in the conference. Tres Tinkle and others have helped out, but it's clear Payton is the most valuable player on this and almost any other roster.
So what does Oregon State need to do to earn an at-large bid? The computer numbers (No. 7 strength of schedule, No. 29 RPI, per ESPN.com) will help a lot, but the Beavers still need to prove they can win games away from home. A loss to Arizona State could be a disaster, although a win in the first round might be enough to be on the right side of the bubble.
Then again, a second-round victory over California would likely remove all anxiety on Selection Sunday.
Prediction: Advance to quarterfinals
No. 5 Colorado
8 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 12 Washington State (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Colorado (21-10, 10-8) has gotten this far on the strength of its defense. In a high-scoring conference, the Buffaloes ranked fourth in the Pac-12 with just 71.8 points allowed per game in league play.
Josh Scott and Wesley Gordon take turns protecting the rim in the post, while the length throughout the roster makes every shot difficult. This not only helped contribute to a recent win over Arizona; Colorado almost pulled off a road win over Utah but fell short 57-55.
Washington State and its struggles on both ends of the court shouldn't pose a real challenge in the first round, although things could be interesting if the Buffs advance to the quarterfinals to face Arizona. With their ability to rebound and match up inside, a few extra wins are certainly a possibility for this underrated squad.
Prediction: Advance to quarterfinals
No. 4 Arizona
9 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 5 Colorado/No. 12 Washington State winner (Thursday, 5:30 p.m. ET)
There were some stumbles in the middle of the year, but Arizona (24-7, 12-6) once again appears to be a legitimate threat in the NCAA tournament.
The Wildcats might not have as much high-end talent as they had in years past, but they have all the tools necessary to be successful over the next few weeks. Ryan Anderson is one of two players in the conference to average a double-double, with 15.8 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. Gabe York and Allonzo Trier provide scoring from the perimeter. Kaleb Tarczewski has focused on defense and rebounding, and the 7-footer is now a force in both areas.
With quality offense and defense to go with experience throughout the roster, it shouldn't be a surprise this team is considered a favorite to win this tournament, per Odds Shark.
The only challenge could be a difficult path, likely starting with Colorado and continuing with a matchup against Oregon and then the finals. Arizona has the ability to win three games, but playing at a high level on consecutive days will not be easy.
Prediction: Advance to semifinals
No. 3 California
10 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 6 Oregon State/No. 11 Arizona State winner (Thursday, 11:30 p.m. ET)
While many other Pac-12 bubble teams faltered down the stretch, California (22-9, 12-6) has excelled. With eight wins in the final nine games, the squad is no longer on the bubble and instead a sleeper to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.
As a young team, Cal took a few months to reach expectations, but it is now one of the best defensive teams in the country, allowing the fourth-lowest effective field-goal percentage in the nation, per KenPom.com. Opponents are ineffective shooting inside and can't get a shot off from the perimeter.
Offensively, the Bears have a lot of versatile scorers who can win one-on-one battles, from freshmen Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb to senior Tyrone Wallace. With great size at just about every position, this is not an easy team to beat.
The only cause for concern at this point is the poor play away from home. Cal is 4-9 in road and neutral games, with the best win coming against Washington. However, this is a different team from earlier in the year, and it should come in with plenty of confidence. If the Bears play to their ability, they can win this entire tournament.
Prediction: Pac-12 Champions
No. 2 Utah
11 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 7 USC/No. 10 UCLA winner (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET)
Not many teams in this era of college basketball are built around a true center quite like Utah (24-7, 13-5). Jakob Poeltl has had an excellent season, tallying 17.5 points, 9.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game while being dominant at times in the low post.
There is a reason DraftExpress rates him as the No. 6 pick in the 2016 NBA draft.
Kyle Kuzma has emerged as another threat in the frontcourt, while Jordan Loveridge, Brandon Taylor and others spread the floor with three-pointers, ensuring opponents aren't able to double-team the big man.
With seven wins in a row and a 12-2 record in the last 14 games, the Utes are a team to fear in this conference tournament.
Prediction: Advance to semifinals
No. 1 Oregon
12 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 8 Washington/No. 9 Stanford (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET)
Not only is Oregon (25-6, 14-4) the No. 1 seed in this tournament, but it has a chance to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The outright Pac-12 regular-season champions have been impressive all year long, currently sitting No. 4 in the RPI, per ESPN.com. The 10 wins against top-50 teams rank second in the country behind only Kansas.
The key has been the fluid offense that features good motion from players with and without the ball, leading to a highly efficient attack. Dillon Brooks is in the midst of a breakout season, with 16.7 points per game, while Elgin Cook and Tyler Dorsey are versatile enough to play multiple positions and contribute from anywhere on the court.
So far this year, the Ducks have swept Utah, won at Arizona and beaten California at home. Oregon can get it done anywhere, and the team is hoping that will continue in Las Vegas.
Prediction: Advance to finals
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