CBB Coaches Who Must Make 2016 NCAA Tournament to Help Save Job

No one ever said being a major college basketball head coach was easy—or secure.

Change is a common thread to March and April, as coaches, athletic directors, fanbases and administrations routinely itch for something new.

More than 10 percent of the 351 Division I college basketball head coaching jobs were open this past offseason, and most of those involved someone getting fired. The action and reaction may not be quite as loud this year, but there will definitely be shake-ups.

Heck, the carousel is already spinning.

Many of these decisions have been conspired during the season, inevitable outcomes when teams didn't reach the NCAA tournament, which seems to be the key benchmark to help a coach keep his job.

Or consideration of the cost to buy out that coach's contract.

We'll take particular interest in coaches who have underperformed based on talent available—we're looking at you, Johnny Jones of LSU, sorry—or had a series of underwhelming seasons that lead us to believe something will be in the works soon...unless a nice run through March occurs.

That leads us to look at a couple of spots in the Pac-12, where unless teams like UCLA or Washington make conference tournament runs, it may be time to signal in a new era.

Here's a look at eight coaches who need to show significant improvement between now and March in order to ensure they don't get fired.

Remember, there could be more changes. If Roy Williams retires at North Carolina or Rick Pitino opts to leave Louisville, those moves would alter the landscape big time.

But for now, we'll focus on who could be on their way out without as much say in the matter.

Orlando Antigua, South Florida

David Kohl/Associated Press

Year at school: Second

Record at school: 16-47

2015-16 record: 7-24, 4-14 American

Imagine what life might be like had Orlando Antigua not achieved the best start through six games for a first-year head coach in school history, starting 5-1.

Antigua has otherwise looked outmatched during his time at USF and was certainly more capable as an assistant coach at a program like Kentucky (his previous job).

There have been alibis. Stan Heath left in March 2014, and six players followed. One of them, then-freshman John Egbunu, transferred to Florida and has found a steady role with the Gators (11.5 points, 6.3 rebounds).

Injuries in both seasons haven't helped, either. Sophomore guard Roddy Peters only played 10 games because of a foot injury. He controlled the majority of USF possessions until his absence.

What's a little surprising is USF does own late-season wins against Houston and Memphis.

So those upsets may make it too soon to get rid of Antigua, but perhaps he'll see the writing on the wall and might even prefer going back to being an assistant at a top-flight program.

That's why we mention him. If he goes back to becoming an assistant, it also throws a ripple effect to the most elite recruiting pools.

Johnny Jones, LSU

Samantha Baker/Associated Press

Year at school: Fourth

Record at school: 79-50

2015-16 record: 18-13, 11-7 SEC

Johnny Jones knows all about basketball success at LSU. He was on a Final Four team there (1981) and helped coach the squad five years later when it visited college basketball's final weekend.

But replicating those days while in charge has been a seemingly impossible task even while having arguably the nation's most talented freshman—and at least one of the top 10 players in the game—in Ben Simmons.

The argument could be made that LSU basketball is an afterthought compared to football and that at least Jones can recruit. But Simmons' connection to Baton Rouge was through his father, who knows LSU associate head coach David Patrick. He is Simmons' godfather.

There were already murmurs about Jones being overmatched early in the season when his team went 7-5 in nonconference play, including three consecutive losses to Marquette, North Carolina State and College of Charleston.

But the real kicker has come late in the season. The Tigers have burned out, fizzled, however you want to say it. A home defeat to on-the-rise Alabama coupled with road losses to Tennessee (without its best scorer, Kevin Punter) and Arkansas were alarming.

No one expected LSU to win the SEC even with Kentucky being relatively down and the rest of the league being relatively on the rise, but to totally fade out of the NCAA tournament picture in a wide-open year is virtually unfathomable.

It came right after a Feb. 13 home win against nationally ranked Texas A&M, which left some room for hope that Simmons and Co. could right themselves.

Jones has already matched predecessor Trent Johnson's mark of both an NIT and an NCAA tournament appearance in four years. But to have such a highly touted class and do nothing with it makes you wonder if LSU will get irked enough to move on without Jones.

Brian Gregory, Georgia Tech

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Year at school: Fifth

Record at school: 73-84

2015-16 record: 18-13, 8-10 ACC

Last year, Ken Sugiura of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Georgia Tech couldn't afford to fire Brian Gregory.

Now the question becomes if they can afford to hold on.

The Yellow Jackets have shown some improvement this season. They went from 3-15 to 8-10 in the ACC portion of play, a solid jump in one year.

Tech won five of its final six regular-season games. If you trust KenPom.com, his team made the jump from No. 83 at the end of last year to No. 62 right now.

But there may be reasons to move on. For one, it's a senior-laden team. That could give a new coach ample space to start clean.

The question is if Georgia Tech has the funds to make a good change possible or if its followers believe it's worthwhile.

Remember, this is a program that last went to the Final Four in 2004. Before that, it was 1990. We wonder why an ACC school in a great city hasn't had more success, but Georgia Tech hasn't exactly been in the upper crust of the league historically.

In that sense, Gregory's stabilized the program to a degree this season.

But keep this in mind: The athletic director at Georgia Tech, Mike Bobinski, wasn't the one who hired Gregory. Previously at Xavier, he may have an idea or two about how to hire a new hoops boss.

Josh Pastner, Memphis

Brandon Dill/Associated Press

Year at school: Seventh

Record at school: 165-72

2015-16 record: 17-14, 8-10 AAC

Most of the guys on this list are there because they're not getting to the NCAA tournament enough. This is not exactly a Josh Pastner problem.

His problems lie deeper. For starters, it's about making a deeper run; he's never advanced past the first weekend in four appearances.

And there's a vibe (one he certainly feels) that Pastner has been held to an unfair standard since he took the job after John Calipari went to Kentucky in 2009.

Pastner is actually among elite company considering he is "one of the top 10 winningest coaches in NCAA Division I men's basketball history over their first six seasons as a head coach," as noted by the Memphis Commercial Appeal's Jason Smith late last season. The group includes former Butler coach Brad Stevens, Pittsburgh's Jamie Dixon, Gonzaga's Mark Few, former Kansas and current North Carolina coach Roy Williams and former Virginia Commonwealth and current Texas coach Shaka Smart.

According to Smith, Pastner said he has always felt the sting of not being accepted since he took over at the ripe age of 31 years old:

"

I think there's been a section of people, a section of fans, maybe media, who since I got the job from Cal have not felt I'm the guy for the job, have wanted me fired. This isn't just this year. This is from the first day I got the job to the first time we lost a game, and it's been like that for my six years here. After every game, there's been media and fans who have wanted me dismissed.

"

Pastner's story is twofold. He is known to be a savvy recruiter, but he's also had a steady stream of transfers. Last summer, Austin Nichols left for Virginia at what amounted to the last minute before this season started.

Funny, because Nichols was quoted as saying at the end of Smith's article (published in February 2015) that Pastner is "definitely the right guy for the job."

That may not be the case after this season, however, unless it finds a way to win the AAC and get into the NCAA tournament again. That mission starts with a March 11 meeting against Tulsa, which the Tigers defeated in their only game this year (Feb. 28 at home).

Steve Alford, UCLA

Michael Owen Baker/Associated Press

Year at school: Third

Record at school: 64-36

2015-16 record: 15-16, 6-12

It doesn't mean everything, but it certainly doesn't help when there are online forums demanding your dismissal.

Alford has made a pair of Sweet 16 appearances, but last year's came after barely scooting into the NCAA tournament field (some would say undeservedly so), and this year's losing record in a wide-open Pac-12 has been disconcerting.

This may not happen unless some deep-pocketed boosters really are irked to have Alford around. He has a $10.4 million clause in his contract until April 30, as Gary Parrish of CBS Sports noted in 2013. (It's as much as $5.2 million if done before the spring of 2018.)

Alford will be banking on a talented incoming recruit class, one that even had him take away a scholarship for next year from his own son.

Lorenzo Romar, Washington

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Year at school: 14th

Record at school: 287-172

2015-16 record: 17-13, 9-9 Pac-12

A lot can happen in a brief amount of time. But sometimes, that just gets you back to where you were. That's the case of Lorenzo Romar and a long tenure that has probably made fans sleepy enough in Seattle.

The Washington Huskies started conference play strong and were in first place in late January. But Andrew Andrews and Co. cooled down and find themselves in a three-way tie for sixth place heading to the Pac-12 tournament.

The Huskies play incredibly fast (the second-fastest tempo in the country). But that's kind of a fool's gold statistic. Among the top 10, only Monmouth is in consideration for an at-large NCAA tournament bid.

Romar's grown stale at UW, as the last three years also produced .500 records and just an NIT first-round appearance in 2013.

At one point, UW was 13-6 and shared the conference lead with Oregon at 5-2.

We're not trying to be mean here. Romar has been a quality coach at a school that isn't a historical winner. But it may be time to look for an up-and-comer that could renew some life into the product. The Huskies averaged about 7,000 fans for home games this year, while Alaska Airlines Arena holds 3,000 more.

There's room for growth.

Travis Ford, Oklahoma State

BRODY SCHMIDT/Associated Press

Year at school: Eighth

Record at school: 155-110

2015-16 record: 12-19, 3-15 Big 12

This is a reach for several reasons, but certainly heat has been on Travis Ford to produce.

He hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since his first year (2009) but somehow manages to be just good enough to get people to look forward to next year.

The Cowboys were awful in this year's extra-loaded Big 12, but they still beat Kansas at home and have arguably the top freshman, point guard Jawun Evans, who has been out since Feb. 3 with a shoulder injury.

Losing outside scoring threat Phil Forte in the third game of the season certainly set the tone for a long year and gave Ford another reasonable alibi.

As of last March—according to the Oklahoman's John Helsley—when Ford was also on the ropes in Stillwater, the cost of firing Ford was "at least $9.6 million—the full remainder owed from a 10-year contract extension given to the coach in September 2009."

After this season, Ford is 63-80 in Big 12 games. That's got to be hard for OSU fans considering how much Iowa State, Oklahoma and even now Texas Tech have surpassed their program.

John Groce, Illinois

Heather Coit/Associated Press

Year at school: Fourth

Record at school: 75-60

2015-16 record: 13-18, 5-13

Illinois has gone from Bill Self to Bruce Weber to John Groce. It could reasonably be argued it's gotten steadily worse at coaching hires.

The same could be said for Groce's impact on the Illini. They have gone from 23 wins and a victory in the NCAA tournament during his first year to perhaps looking for a new leader.

Anyone think Sergio McClain should be next in line?

Groce recently received a vote of confidence from the school's new athletic director, Josh Whitman. CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie noted: "It's worth noting though that Groce returns a lot of talent from this year's team, including Malcolm Hill, Kendrick Nunn and freshman Jalen Coleman-Lands."

But we all know how these things go. Like contracts, words of praise can be shredded in a heartbeat if a good new candidate comes along.

Advanced statistics courtesy of KenPom.com.