ACC Tournament 2016: Dates, Odds, Bracket and Predictions

The final days of the 2016 ACC regular-season schedule did not go as planned. Miami's surprising loss on the road at Virginia Tech gifted North Carolina sole possession of first place in the conference, moved Virginia up to the No. 2 seed and sent the Hurricanes all the way back to No. 3.

The tournament kicks off in the nation's capital Tuesday and runs through Saturday. North Carolina enters as a considerable favorite at 37-20 odds, per Oddsshark, with Virginia (3-1) and Duke (15-4) each moving ahead of Miami (9-2). 

In recent seasons, the winner has consistently come from the top of the bracket. No team seeded lower than No. 3 has won the conference tournament since Maryland won from the sixth seed in 2004. That would, in theory, rule out Duke, which was only the No. 4 seed because of Louisville's postseason ban. With that in mind, let's take a look at the trio of contenders and power rank their likelihood of winning.

Date	Game No.	Matchup	Time (ET)
March 8	1	No. 13 Wake Forest vs. No. 12 N.C. State	Noon
March 8	2	No. 14 Boston College vs. No. 11 Florida State	2 p.m.
March 9	3	No. 9 Syracuse vs. No. 8 Pittsburgh	Noon
March 9	4	Game 1 winner vs. No. 5 Duke	2 p.m.
March 9	5	No. 10 Georgia Tech vs. No. 7 Clemson	7 p.m.
March 9	6	Game 2 winner vs. No. 6 Virginia Tech	9 p.m.
March 10	7	Game 3 winner vs. No. 1 North Carolina	Noon
March 10	8	Game 4 winner vs. No. 4 Notre Dame	2 p.m.
March 10	9	Game 5 winner vs. No. 2 Virginia	7 p.m.
March 10	10	Game 6 winner vs. No. 3 Miami	9 p.m.
March 11	11	Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner	7 p.m.
March 11	12	Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner	9 p.m.
March 12	13	Championship Game	9 p.m.

1. Virginia

Steve Helber/Associated Press

The Cavaliers might be the most complete team in the country. Ken Pomeroy's advanced metrics rank Virginia No. 1 heading into the conference tournaments. It is one of just two teams (Kansas being the other) that boast a top-10 efficiency rating on both ends of the floor.

Virginia closed its regular season with three straight wins, including triumphs over North Carolina and Louisville. Tony Bennett's team did not lose a single regular-season game at home. 

“I think it speaks to us finding our identity at the right time, us peaking as a team defensively at the right time,” Malcolm Brogdon said, per Ava Wallace of the Washington Post. “Going into the postseason, I think we’re playing the best basketball of our season.”

While Virginia's shaky road record could be of concern down the line, it won't be here. The Cavaliers will essentially be the home team in D.C. Maryland's departure for the Big Ten leaves Virginia as the closest thing the ACC has to a base at the nation's capital. The school can bring students in by the droves for a two-hour car ride and will likely look to take advantage.

Bennett also has a veteran-laden roster that's champing at the bit for a late-March run. The Cavaliers' top four leading scorers are upperclassmen, led by the sensational Brogdon. Coming into his own as a senior, Brogdon averaged 18.4 points and 4.2 rebounds per game while knocking down 41.1 percent of his threes. Making it more impressive is the fact Brogdon's numbers actually improved once conference play began.

"He's been playing great this year," forward Anthony Gill told Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report. "It makes it a lot easier on everyone else when he's hitting the shots that he's hitting. So for him to get that chant after the game was just awesome."

Gill is the team's second leading scorer (13.1 points per game) and its most regular inside presence. Seven-footer Mike Tobey is fine, but he's good for only around 15 minutes a night. Gill is the one doing a lot of the dirty work, and the fact the Virginia defense has held up all season is a testament to his effort.

North Carolina is the No. 1 seed here, but Virginia's the best team.

2. North Carolina

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

The Tar Heels are, however, the most talented team in the conference. They were the nation's No. 1 team in the preseason for a reason. Perhaps no coach in the country has a stronger group of veteran players than Roy Williams.

Brice Johnson is a nightly double-double inside, Marcus Paige is a great (albeit imperfect) leader, and the combo of Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks brings efficiency down low. Threes don't come in bunches, but the floor can really space when Joel Berry II and Paige start knocking down shots. Berry in particular is going to need to knock down shots when they're available.

"Because the talent distribution on the roster is so lopsided in the frontcourt, UNC is almost always playing two traditional big men during a time when the game has become increasingly more perimeter-oriented across all levels," Ricky O'Donnell of SB Nation wrote. "With Meeks, Johnson and Hicks all sharing time together, North Carolina is already playing with a small margin for error when it comes to shooting and spacing."

Somehow, this hasn't really damaged North Carolina's scoring. The Tar Heels are fourth nationally in offensive efficiency; their real issues come on defense, where they can be prone to lapses more typical of a freshman-laden roster. Paige still has a habit of chasing rather than staying with his man, and neither Meeks nor Hicks is exactly known as a lockdown guy inside.

North Carolina is going to come up against a hot-shooting team sometime this month. We can't accurately predict whether it'll happen now or in the NCAA tournament, but it's coming. Guys such as Berry and Paige need to find their rhythm between now and then to avoid a major upset. The Tar Heels haven't lost a game by more than six points this season, but they're vulnerable.

3. Miami

Robert Franklin/Associated Press

Miami has arguably played above its pay grade all season, and that showed against Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes were held to 4-of-24 shooting from beyond the arc while allowing Virginia Tech to knock down more than half its shots.

"They defended us really well in the first half, and I think we were a little too focused on what was at stake," Miami coach Jim Larranaga told reporters. "We wanted it so badly—to win and to solidify that we would get at least a share of the conference regular-season championship.

"I told the team afterwards, it's not about focusing on the result. It's focusing on the process. The process is playing good defense, rebounding and executing the offensive game plan. We just didn't do that."

The loss highlighted how dependent Miami is on its top guards playing well. Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez shot a combined 9-of-27 from the field and were taken to the cleaners defensively. Hokies guards Justin Gibbs and Justin Robinson had one of their finest games of the season, with Gibbs knocking down five three-pointers and Robinson dishing out eight assists.

More concerning is Miami's continued struggles away from home. The Hurricanes have double-digit losses to Clemson, Virginia Tech and North Carolina State on the road this season. That doesn't exactly scream national championship contender. Ken Pomeroy's luck metric has Miami 38th, which is the highest among ACC teams by a mile.

The Hurricanes are primed for an early upset in D.C. if their shooting fails again. 

All advanced metrics via KenPom.