March Madness 2016: Analyzing Underrated NCAA Tournament Contenders

A week away from Selection Sunday, college basketball fans can sense the upcoming madness.

Saturday's swarm of college basketball offered a small taste of what lies ahead once the NCAA tournament tips off. Title contenders concluded the regular season, paving the way for abrupt conference tournaments. After that, it's time to commence the 68-team, single-elimination frenzy.

Following years of high-scale success, possible No. 1 seeds Kansas, Michigan State, Villanova and Virginia won't surprise anyone with a deep NCAA tournament run. Yet no bracket unfolds without a few twists and turns.

The following trio don't register as Cinderella teams, but they'll enter March Madness outside the top tier of commonly picked schools. Given the right circumstances, they're capable of going the distance.

West Virginia

Ray Thompson/Associated Press

Entering the weekend ranked No. 9 in defensive rating, West Virginia faced a steep test in Baylor's No. 16-rated offense. The Mountaineers prevailed in a battle of strength vs. strength, limiting the Bears to 58 points on 36.5 percent shooting.

Saturday's victory ensured them second place in the stacked Big 12 behind No. 1 Kansas, who they beat at home by 11 and lost to by 10 on the road earlier in the season. They may not play the most aesthetically pleasing basketball, but they're a grueling adversary no opponent wants to see on their end of the bracket. Just ask CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein:

Let's not go overboard depicting West Virginia as tenacious bruisers who must grind out slow-paced defensive slugfests to triumph. Behind senior guard Jaysean Paige, who has averaged a team-high 14.3 points off the bench, it has mounted 79.6 points per contest with 111.5 points per 100 possessions.

Back in February, the sixth man praised the Mountaineers' depth in talking with the Associated Press' John Raby.

"Our strength is in our numbers," Paige said. "The way we play, we need guys to come in and give us solid minutes and guys that come and give some guys breathers. It's just constant attacking. When everybody's healthy, it's a big boost for us."

Such balance triggers a No. 6 ranking in KenPom.com's college basketball ratings, but late losses to Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma will keep Bob Huggins' squad from chasing a No. 1 or 2 seed. Instead, barring a Big 12 tournament victory, West Virginia is poised to become a No. 3 seed the top two teams are discouraged to see.

Iowa State

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Iowa State nearly became the trendy tournament pick. The Cyclones deftly traded blows with the top-ranked Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse—where the home team hasn't lost all year—before a late run stamped an 85-78 defeat.

Instead of notching another huge upset, the Cyclones suffered their 10th loss, eight against Big 12 foes. Yet they split season series versus Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma while never looking overmatched against fierce competition.

Iowa State didn't drop any loss—nine of which came at the hands of top-50 RPI schools—by more than 10 points. A team generating points like it does always have a chance.

Its 82 points per game and 113.4 offensive rating might underscore its offensive aptitude. Accounting for strength of schedule, the Cyclones finished No. 2 in KenPom.com's offensive efficiency. Before Saturday, their 57.1 field-goal percentage placed No. 6 in the nation.

Earning a second win over Kansas would have catapulted the Cyclones into the national discussion as a popular selection. Even in a losing effort, they flashed the upside necessary to justify a risky leap of faith.  

Indiana

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The NCAA saved one juicy matchup for Sunday's slate. No. 14 Maryland and No. 12 Indiana, each sporting 24-6 records, will collide inside Assembly Hall. Holding a perfect home record and four-game winning streak, expect the Hoosiers to steal the spotlight.

When it comes to containing their deep and efficient offense, defenses are often left to pick their poison. Down low, big man Thomas Bryant boasts a ridiculous 70.1 field-goal percentage. From behind the arc, the Hoosiers have converted 42.0 percent of their threes.

Yogi Ferrell doesn't just own the best name ever. He's also the quintessential talent one imagines orchestrating a tournament run. The senior guard is averaging 17.1 points per game on a 59.6 true-shooting percentage.

As pointed out by Peegs.com's Jeff Rabjohns, Ferrell is culminating his collegiate career in style:

Without James Blackmon, who is out for the season with an injured knee, Nick Zeisloft and Robert Johnson have wreaked havoc downtown. Losing their second-best scorer hasn't derailed the Hoosiers, who possess the experience and offensive firepower necessary to soar beyond expectations.

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.