Big 12 Tournament 2016: Preview and Predictions for Every Team

With both Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com predicting seven of the 10 Big 12 teams will be in the NCAA tournament, all with No. 8 seeds or better, the Big 12 conference tournament figures to be an intense affair featuring riveting basketball.

Two Big 12 teams, Kansas and Oklahoma, are very much in the running for No. 1 NCAA tournament seeds, so a lot is on the line in the Big 12 tournament, which begins Wednesday at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

Just because Kansas won the regular-season conference title for a 12th straight time this season, don't expect the Jayhawks to be prohibitive favorites in Kansas City. Kansas won the conference tournament only six times the previous 11 seasons, failing to win it either of the past two years. Remember, Kansas lost by 19 points this season to Oklahoma State, which finished 3-16 in the Big 12.

To help you wade through the talent and make sense of what may be the best conference tournament in the country, we provide opening-round matchups and times, predictions on how each team will fare and reasons why that team will succeed or fail. Teams are presented in inverse order of their seeding.

Local times are used for game times; Kansas City, Missouri., is in the Central Time Zone.

No. 10 TCU

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

First matchup: No. 7 Texas Tech (Wednesday, 8 p.m.)

Prediction: Loses opening game

TCU (11-20, 2-16) may have gained some confidence by staying close for most of its game against Oklahoma on Saturday. Plus, TCU played Texas Tech tough in both their matchups this season, as the Horned Frogs were within two points with a minute left both times.

However, the bottom line is that TCU lost both those games to Texas Tech and comes into the conference tournament riding a seven-game losing streak. The Horned Frogs have won only one game since Feb. 1, so they have not figured out how to close out games. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is playing its best basketball of the season at the moment and wants to be playing well heading into the NCAA tournament.

TCU's only motivation might be to save coach Trent Johnson's job, which may be be in jeopardry.

The Horned Frogs have shown they are capable of beating Texas Tech if they get a break or two. But even if TCU pulls an upset in its opener, its feeble offense, which ranks 301st in the country in scoring and 310th in field-goal percentage (40.7), will prevent it from going any farther.

No. 9 Oklahoma State

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

First matchup: No. 8 Kansas State (Wednesday, 6 p.m.)

Prediction: Loses opening game

Oklahoma State (12-19, 3-15) was all but finished as a Big 12 contender when Phil Forte was lost for the season with an elbow injury suffered in the third game. The limited talent pool that was left for coach Travis Ford was depleted further when freshman Jawun Evans was lost for the season with a shoulder injury suffered in a Feb. 4 loss to Texas Tech.

Without their two leading scorers, the Cowboys are not much of a threat. The Cowboys have lost six straight games and nine of their last 10. Since losing Evans, the Cowboys are 1-8, including a loss to TCU. With no momentum and a lack of scoring punch, the Cowboys are probably headed for an opening-round exit.

The one piece of evidence that provides hope is that the Cowboys did beat Kansas State without Forte or Evans, earning a split of their two games against the Wildcats, who are struggling themselves. Oklahoma State could beat Kansas State in what figures to be a close game, and that would lead to an intriguing quarterfinal matchup against Kansas. The Cowboys upset Kansas by 19 points back in January, but that should only provide more motivation for Kansas to run over the Cowboys if they meet in Kansas City.

No. 8 Kansas State

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

First matchup: No. 9 Oklahoma State (Wednesday, 6 p.m.)

Prediction: Wins one game and is then eliminated in the quarterfinals

Kansas State (16-15, 5-13) upset then-No. 1 Oklahoma by 11 points on Feb. 6 in the Wildcats' second game after losing starting point guard Kamau Stokes with a knee injury. Suddenly, the Wildcats looked like they might sneak into the NCAA tournament. But that win proved to be a mirage as Stokes' absence began to be felt by a team that was already short on perimeter threats.

The Wildcats have lost six of their eight games since the win over Oklahoma, and the only two wins in that span came against last-place TCU.

Kansas State split its two regular-season games with Oklahoma State, but that does not tell the whole story. The Wildcats dominated Oklahoma State in Manhattan, Kansas, holding a 23-point lead with just under four minutes left in a 16-point win. The Wildcats then lost an overtime game in Stillwater, Oklahoma, 55-52, a score that reflected both teams' offensive deficiencies.

It stands to reason that Kansas State would have an edge in crowd support with the Sprint Center's proximity to the Kansas State campus. That should be enough to give the Wildcats one win in the tournament. Kansas State won't enjoy a similar advantage in the next round against Kansas, which beat the Wildcats by 18 points and nine points in their two previous meetings and figure to show similar dominance in the Big 12 tournament.

No. 7 Texas Tech

John Weast/Getty Images

First matchup: No. 10 TCU (Wednesday, 8 p.m.)

Prediction: Wins one game and is then eliminated in quarterfinals

Texas Tech (19-11, 9-9) comes into the Big 12 tournament having won six of its eight last games and is playing its best basketball of the season. The late-season surge has boosted the Red Raiders from a team that was on the NCAA tournament bubble to one that is not only expected to be in the field of 68, but should also get a pretty good seed.

Texas Tech is capable of pulling a few upsets to get deep into the Big 12 tournament. That potential was exhibited when the Red Raiders beat Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma in successive games in mid-February. The problem is that if Texas Tech beats TCU, as it should, it would face a quarterfinal game against West Virginia, which has had Texas Tech's number. The Mountaineers won both games against Texas Tech this season, including a 90-68 rout of the Red Raiders just last week in Morgantown, West Virginia.

The Red Raiders had 17 turnovers in the first game against West Virginia's non-stop pressure and 19 in the second. That is not encouraging for a team that is averaging under 12 turnovers a game. Even though the Red Raiders are on a roll, the Mountaineers are not a good matchup for Texas Tech.

No. 6 Iowa State

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

First matchup: No. 3 Oklahoma (Thursday, 8 p.m.)

Prediction: Loses its opening game. 

Iowa State (21-10, 10-8) won the Big 12 tournament the past two seasons. Georges Niang and Monte Morris, the key components of this year's Cyclones, were starters on both those championship teams. Missing, however, is coach Fred Hoibert, who had a knack for finding favorable matchups, but is now coaching the Chicago Bulls.

Iowa State faces a remarkably difficult quarterfinal game, considering how good the Cyclones have been this season. They own a 13-point victory over Kansas and led the Jayhawks with less than four minutes left in Lawrence on Saturday before losing that one

More significant is that Iowa State split its two games against Oklahoma; both games were close. Iowa State won the second encounter, even though the Sooners made 17 of 32 three-point shots and committed just nine turnovers. The Cyclones won that game at the foul line, outscoring Oklahoma by 10.

Like any of the top six seeds, Iowa State is capable of winning the conference tournament. However, the Cyclones are 5-6 in their last 11 games and are not playing at quite the same level they had achieved earlier in the season. Unless Oklahoma has an off night from long range, the Cyclones will play only one game in Kansas City.

No. 5 Baylor

Rod Aydelotte/Associated Press

First matchup: No. 4 Texas (Thursday, 11:30 a.m.)

Prediction: Loses its opening game 

Baylor (21-10, 10-8) has to feel pretty good about facing Texas, because the Bears dominated the Longhorns on Texas' homecourt on Feb. 20. Baylor led that game by 22 points with six minutes remaining before coasting in for a 14-point victory. The difference was Baylor's Johnathan Motley, who hit 12 of 13 field-goal attempts and scored 24 points as a starter in that victory after playing just 15 minutes off the bench and collecting only five points in Baylor's eight-point home loss to Texas 18 days earlier.

Baylor will need another big game from Motley to beat Texas again, but don't count on that happening after Motley scored just two points in the Bears' final two regular-season games combined.

Even though it lost three of its final four games, Baylor has been playing well lately and showing improvement on defense. But that rather lopsided 69-58 home loss to West Virginia in the Bears' final regular-season game may have slowed their momentum a bit. Baylor power forward Rico Gathers had just five points and three rebounds in that game, and leading scorer Taurean Prince, an 80.7 percent free-throw shooter, was just 6-of-14 from the foul line and 5-of-17 from the field.

It's a shame a game involving teams this good will start on Thursday morning, and it may be a short stay for the Bears. Even if Baylor gets past Texas, the Bears are unlikely to win their next game, which would probably be against Kansas. Baylor lost both games to Kansas this season, including a 28-point loss in Lawrence.

No. 4 Texas

Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

First matchup: No. 5 Baylor (Thursday, 11:30 a.m.)

Prediction: Wins one game, then loses in semifinals 

Texas (20-11, 11-7) is capable of beating anyone in the conference. The Longhorns beat West Virginia twice this season, and they split with Oklahoma, defeating the Sooners by 13 points in Austin and losing by just three in Norman, Oklahoma, when Buddy Hield hit a three-point shot with 1.3 seconds left. They also beat Baylor on the road. 

However, doubts about Texas' ability to maintain that level over an entire tournament were raised by two recent Texas results: a Feb. 20 loss to Baylor and a March 1 loss to Kansas. Losing those games was not shocking, but the fact the Longhorns got blown out at home in both was. Baylor led by 22 points with six minutes left before it finished off a 14-point victory, and Kansas routed the Longhorns by 30 points in Austin just last week.

Medical issues create further uncertainties for Texas. Center Cameron Ridley, who has been out since December with a broken foot, is unlikely to return for the Big 12 tournament, but still hopes to be available for the NCAA tournament, according to ESPN.com. A more immediate concern is the plantar fasciitis that is causing pain for Texas guard Isaiah Taylor—a problem that could worsen in a tournament format where teams must play on consecutive days.

Taylor should have enough time off to perform well against Baylor. That should be enough for Texas to get past the Bears, putting Texas into the semifinals, probably against Kansas. Taylor's foot may be worse in the second game in two days, and Texas just does not have the horses to beat a Kansas squad that dominated the Longhorns twice this season by a combined margin of 39 points.

No. 3 Oklahoma

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

First matchup: No. 6 Iowa State (Thursday, 8 p.m.)

Prediction: Makes it to tournament finals, then loses

Oklahoma (24-6, 12-6) is not quite the juggernaut it was a month ago. When the Sooners beat TCU by 23 points on Feb. 3, they were ranked No. 1 in the country and carried a 19-2 record that included a 23-point win over Villanova and a triple-overtime loss at Kansas. Since Feb. 3, the Sooners are just 6-5, and they were not particularly impressive in their eight-point victory over TCU in their regular-season finale.

It seems opponents have discovered if they limit the Sooners' three-point shots, they have a shot at beating Oklahoma. The Sooners rely heavily on their outstanding perimeter shooting, ranking second in the country in three-point shooting percentage (43.0) and fourth in three-point shots made per game (10.6), according to ESPN.com.

But when lowly Kansas State limited the Sooners to six-of-24 shooting from beyond the arc, Oklahoma lost by 11 points.

The Sooners' opening tournament game against Iowa State is a virtual tossup, as they split their two regular-season games by comparable scores. Because Oklahoma has been a bit more successful recently, winning four of their final five games, and because Hield is apt to find a way to win a close game, Oklahoma is the pick to win that game.

Oklahoma is likely to face West Virginia in the semifinals, and that is a good matchup for the Sooners. Even though Oklahoma shot poorly in its two games against West Virginia (a combined 15-of-51 on three-pointers), Oklahoma won both contests, including a 14-point victory in Morgantown on Feb. 20. The Sooners have the guards to handle the Mountaineers' defensive pressure.

Oklahoma can get past West Virginia, but it would need an outstanding shooting night to beat Kansas in the finals. Kansas won both regular-season meetings with the Sooners and should make it a third.

No. 2 West Virginia

Ray Thompson/Associated Press

First matchup: No. 7 Texas Tech/No. 10 TCU winner (Thursday, 6 p.m.)

Prediction: Wins one game, then loses in the semifinals 

West Virginia (24-7, 13-5) has won four games in a row, all by double-digit margins. The Mountaineers are on a roll that could lead to a run through the conference tournament. A bad semifinal matchup may stand in their way, though.

West Virginia is not a particularly good team offensively, but the Mountaineers are scary on defense with their constant pressure. They are second in the nation in steals, averaging 9.84 a game, according to ESPN.com, and through March 4, they were second nationally in turnovers forced, causing opponents to give the ball away 18.2 times per game, per the NCAA.

The high point of the Mountaineers' season came on Feb. 13, when they forced then-No. 1 Kansas into 22 turnovers. Even though Kansas was 10-of-20 from three-point range, compared with West Virginia's 3-of-12 from distance, the Mountaineers won by 11 points.

The Mountaineers have not accomplished anything as notable since, losing the rematch against Kansas and dropping both games against Oklahoma.

The Mountaineers' first tournament game, probably against Texas Tech, will not be a picnic since the teams split their two regular-season games. However, West Virginia's 22-point win over the Red Raiders last week will be fresh in both teams' minds and should carry the Mountaineers to a quarterfinal win.

If Oklahoma is the semifinal opponent, West Virginia's tournament run is probably over. The Sooners won both games against West Virginia this season, and that includes a 14-point victory on West Virginia's home court on Feb. 20. Oklahoma committed just nine turnovers in that game, after seeing the Mountaineers' pressure defense for the second time. Seeing it for the third time should lead to a West Virginia exit.

No. 1 Kansas

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

First matchup: No. 8 Kansas State/No. 9 Oklahoma State winner (Thursday, 1:30 p.m.)

Prediction: Wins the Big 12 tournament

Kansas (27-4, 15-3) has shortcomings, and it's not hard to find reasons why the Jayhawks might falter in the Big 12 tournament. Their 19-point loss to lowly Oklahoma State demonstrated Kansas is far from invincible. So did the 11-point loss at West Virginia when Kansas committed 22 turnovers.

Furthermore, Kansas' recent history in the conference tournament has not been great. The Jayhawks finished alone in first place last year and lost in the conference tournament  finals to Iowa State. They won the regular-season title by two games in both 2014 and 2012 and lost in the semifinals of the conference tournament both years. 

Again the Jayhawks enter the Big 12 tournament after finishing two games ahead of the pack, and with the amount of talent spread across the conference, few would be surprised if Kansas falls short in the conference tournament again.

Nonetheless, Kansas is the best bet to win the Big 12 tournament, and you don't have to look far to understand why. First of all, that two-game margin atop the best conference in the country was not achieved with mirrors. It earned Kansas the No. 1 ranking in the country this week and a No. 1 seed in the latest NCAA tournament projections of Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com.

The Jayhawks have two wins over Oklahoma, including the Sooners' only home loss of the season, and Kansas is a combined 5-1 against the second-, third- and fourth-place finishers in the Big 12.  Kansas is also the hottest team in the conference, having won 11 in a row, six of which were against ranked teams, including a 30-point blowout of Texas on the Longhorns' home court last week. Add in the fact Kansas will have plenty of support in Kansas City and you have the recipe for a conference tournament favorite.

The biggest threat to Kansas may be Iowa State, which beat the Jayhawks in Ames, Iowa, and offered Kansas a stiff challenge in Lawrence, Kansas, on Saturday. The Cyclones also eliminated Kansas in each of the past two Big 12 tournaments, so they seem to know what it takes to beat Kansas. However, Kansas would not have to face Iowa State until the Big 12 finals, and the Cyclones need to navigate through some heavy traffic to get there.

Unless otherwise noted, the source for statistics is ESPN.com, and the statistics are valid through games played March 5.