NCAA Tournament 2016: Projecting Bracket-Busters Before Conference Tournaments

There are many compelling aspects of the NCAA tournament every year.

One of them is the team that rises up from the mid-majors and puts on a great show. And defeats teams from the major conferences. And finds a way to survive. And advances as the tournament progresses.

These bracket-busters can be compelling stories. Who doesn't love the team that quietly finds its stride in late February and suddenly starts believing in itself? That confidence manifests itself in March and leads to NCAA tournament victories.

In most cases, these bracket-busting teams pull off upsets by beating teams from larger conferences. But not always. In some cases, mid-major teams are very highly thought of, and while they come from smaller conferences, they have championship-type teams that are simply better than those from the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC, Pac-12, Atlantic-10 or Big East.

One of the most compelling mid-major teams throughout the years has been Gonzaga of the West Coast Conference. The Zags have been so consistent and have raised their profile so much that it's never a shocker when they win an NCAA tournament game or two. Gonzaga has nearly become a "major" conference team because of the team's accomplishments.

It is not the only WCC team that is capable of busting brackets. St. Mary's joined the battle several years ago because the Gaels had no choice if they weren't going to get stepped on by the Zags.

Head coach Randy Bennett has built a powerful team capable of winning the Las Vegas-based WCC tournament.

St. Mary's (25-4, 15-3) earned the top seed because it swept the season series against Gonzaga. The Gaels' confidence level is quite high, and if they beat the Zags in the championship round, they should go into the NCAA tournament with a boatload of confidence. 

Date	Round	Location(s)
March 15, 16	First Four	UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
March 17, 19	First/Second Rounds	Dunkin Donuts Center (Providence, R.I.); Wells Fargo Arena (Des Moines, Iowa); PNC Arena (Raleigh, N.C.); Pepsi Center (Denver)
March 18, 20	First/Second Rounds	Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.); Scottrade Center (St. Louis); Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City); Spokane Arena (Spokane, Wash.)
March 24, 26	West Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	Honda Center (Anaheim, Calif.)
March 24, 26	South Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, Ky.)
March 25, 27	Midwest Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	United Center (Chicago)
March 25, 27	East Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	Wells Fargo Center (Philadelphia)
April 2	Final Four (Semifinals)	NRG Stadium (Houston)
April 4	Championship Game	NRG Stadium (Houston)

The Gaels like to play at a rather pedestrian pace, but they make up for the lack of razzle-dazzle by running excellent patterns that have allowed them to connect on 50.9 percent of their shots from the floor. Emmett Naar won first-team All-WCC honors at guard, and he averages 13.9 points per game. His ability to score or find the open man allows the St. Mary's offense to operate with a relentless quality.

Look for St. Mary's to be a difficult team for major-conference teams to beat once they start competing in the NCAA tournament.

Valparaiso (25-5, 16-2) has had a brilliant campaign in the Horizon League again this season. Head coach Bryce Drew, who led the Crusaders to one of the most compelling March Madness stories with a last-second game-winning shot in 1998 against Ole Miss, has a veteran team capable of making another run in the NCAA tournament.

The Crusaders are strong and deep, and they are led by 6'9" junior forward Alec Peters, who can fill it up regularly. Peters is averaging 17.5 points per game and shooting 50.3 percent from the field. Drew knows that when Peters gets the ball late in any possession, he is going to find a way to get off a good shot and most likely score.

Guard Keith Carter is a sharp floor general who can find the open man. He is averaging 9.8 points per night and also is the team's assist leader with an average of 4.4 assists per game.

The Crusaders have won 10 of their last 11 games, and they have found a way to win close games as of late, a characteristic that should help them in the tournament.

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

Hailing from the Missouri Valley Conference, the Wichita State Shockers (24-7, 16-2) have been a compelling bracket-busting team in the past. They were a No. 1 seed in 2014 but lost to Kentucky in the round of 32.

The Shockers could well reprise that role in the 2016 NCAA tournament. They are led by guard Fred VanVleet, who became the second Shocker and ninth MVC player to win two Player of the Year awards. VanVleet averages 12.3 points per game and is one of the best defensive players in the conference. He made the All-Defensive Team in the MVC for the third time in his career.

VanVleet gets a lot of help from guard Ron Baker, who leads the team with 13.9 points per game. Look for the Shockers to make an impact on this year's NCAA tournament.