March Madness 2016: Schedule and Bracket Predictions for Top Seeds

It isn’t safe at the top. At least not in college basketball during a 2015-16 season that has been filled with shocking upsets, turnover in the rankings and no true dominant national title favorite.

There will be four No. 1 seeds come Selection Sunday, but those teams might not even want them given the track record of the highly ranked squads this year. In fact, there is no team in the Associated Press Top 25 with less than four losses, and all but six have more than five defeats on their resumes.

The Week 17 poll was released on Monday, and Jim O’Connell of the Associated Press (via NCAA.com) noted the Kansas Jayhawks became the first school to be named No. 1 for a second time all season. What’s more, O'Connell said the Top 10 from the prior Monday to Sunday lost a combined 10 games, but the bottom 15 only lost six times.

Again, it isn’t safe at the top.

If those patterns continue, March Madness will live up to its moniker this season. Here is a look at the NCAA tournament schedule, as well as a prediction for who the four No. 1 seeds will be on Selection Sunday.

Date	Round	Location(s)
March 15, 16	First Four	UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
March 17, 19	First/Second Rounds	Dunkin Donuts Center (Providence, R.I.); Wells Fargo Arena (Des Moines, Iowa); PNC Arena (Raleigh, N.C.); Pepsi Center (Denver)
March 18, 20	First/Second Rounds	Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.); Scottrade Center (St. Louis); Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City); Spokane Arena (Spokane, Wash.)
March 24, 26	West Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	Honda Center (Anaheim, Calif.)
March 24, 26	South Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, Ky.)
March 25, 27	Midwest Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	United Center (Chicago)
March 25, 27	East Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	Wells Fargo Center (Philadelphia)
April 2	Final Four (Semifinals)	NRG Stadium (Houston)
April 4	Championship Game	NRG Stadium (Houston)

No. 1 Seed Predictions

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas is synonymous with consistency, and it has won at least a share of its 12th consecutive Big 12 title this season. This effort took on a special meaning for head coach Bill Self, per Nicole Auerbach of the USA Today:

In addition to the sheer incredibility of the Jayhawks’ 12th conference crown in a row, they are also playing their best basketball at the most opportunistic time. Self’s team is riding a 10-game winning streak with only one contest remaining before the Big 12 tournament.

Kansas can even afford a loss in the Big 12 tournament in the race for a No. 1 seed thanks to its strong overall finish and quality wins against UCLA, Vanderbilt, Baylor (twice), Oklahoma (twice), Texas (twice), Kentucky and West Virginia. It also has a chance to add another impressive win to its resume Saturday at home against No. 21 Iowa State. 

According to ESPN.com's Daily RPI (as of Wednesday), Kansas is No. 1 in the RPI and No. 1 in opponent strength of schedule, and it sports a head-turning 8-3 mark against the RPI Top 25. That is the resume of a No. 1 seed, especially one that once again found itself atop the Big 12.

Michigan State Spartans

Michael Conroy/Associated Press/Associated Press

Indiana may be the regular-season Big Ten champions, but Michigan State is the league’s most dangerous team in March now that it has superstar Denzel Valentine back from the knee injury that sidelined him for four games.

Like Kansas, head coach Tom Izzo’s club is playing well at the right time. It only has one loss since Jan. 20, and that came on Feb. 9 by one point in overtime at Purdue.

The Spartans are a threat to win the entire tournament because they have a bona fide superstar on their side who can take over the most important moments in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. Valentine is a game-changer who is a threat to post a triple-double every time he takes the floor (he was averaging 19.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists a night entering Wednesday’s game against Rutgers).

Rob Dauster of College Basketball Talk thinks Valentine should be the National Player of the Year this season over even Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield:

"

No one has ever put up the numbers that Valentine is putting up this season, at least not since assists were an official stat that was kept by the NCAA. And he’s doing this on a team that, for my money, is the best in the country right now despite not being close to the most talented. And he’s doing all of that while playing somewhat out of position, sliding over to handle near-full time point guard duties with Tum Tum Nairn banged up. When it’s this close, there are two questions that I think you need to answer to determine Player of the Year: Who can beat you in more ways, and if I was starting a team today, who would I take first? The answer to both of those questions is Valentine. 

"

In addition to Valentine, the Spartans have quality wins against Kansas, Louisville and Florida out of conference and the chance to make a statement in the Big Ten tournament against the likes of Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Iowa and/or Wisconsin. 

The thought here is Valentine puts the team on his back and wins the conference tournament, which will be enough for the Spartans to seize one of the four No. 1 seeds.

Villanova Wildcats

There is a real possibility one of the four No. 1 seeds will go to the winner of the potential championship game in the Big East tournament between No. 3 Villanova and No. 5 Xavier.

It would be a thrilling rubber match after the two best teams in the league split their two regular-season showdowns. While Xavier beat Villanova in the most recent contest between the two (Feb. 24 at the raucous Cintas Center), the Wildcats’ overall dominance in the series will prevail in the conference tournament. 

Villanova beat Xavier by 31 points on Dec. 31 (95-64), and Jeff Eisenberg of Yahoo Sports put the one-sidedness of the matchup into perspective after the Musketeers finally prevailed against the Wildcats:

Villanova has only lost one time since Jan. 24 and will be riding plenty of momentum into Selection Sunday, especially with another win against the Musketeers.

ESPN.com's Daily RPI had Villanova at No. 2 in the RPI on Wednesday. That number, along with a strong finish that includes a second victory over Xavier, would be enough for the Wildcats to overcome their current record of 2-3 against the RPI Top 25 and earn a No. 1 seed.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Gerry Broome/Associated Press/Associated Press

North Carolina dipped down to No. 8 in the most recent AP poll with two losses in the last five games. However, they were both forgivable defeats against Virginia on the road and in a heartbreaker against Duke.

This No. 1 seed prediction is more about the opportunity ahead for arguably the most talented team in the nation than what it has done in recent games. The Tar Heels finish with a chance for revenge in a road contest against the Blue Devils and then enter the ACC tournament in a strong league that includes three teams in the Top 10 (Virginia, North Carolina and Miami).

If all the talent comes together for Roy Williams’ squad, it will knock off the short-handed Blue Devils, who are still playing without Amile Jefferson, and rack up some quality wins in the ACC tournament.

With Brice Johnson as a double-double machine, Justin Jackson as a versatile scorer, Kennedy Meeks as a force down low, Joel Berry as a three-point shooter and Marcus Paige running the show, it is hard to argue with North Carolina on paper. 

The senior Paige could be the key considering his numbers are largely down across the board this season:

Season	Minutes per Game	Points per Game	Assists per Game	Rebounds per Game	Field-Goal Percentage	Three-Point Percentage	Free-Throw Percentage
2013-14	35.6	17.5	4.2	3.2	44	38.9	87.7
2014-15	33.2	14.1	4.5	2.9	41.3	39.5	86.5
2015-16	31.3	12.1	3.7	2.3	39	33.6	76.1

However, he has proved himself capable in the past and has plenty of talent around him to take the pressure off his shoulders in March. The Tar Heels will win out against Duke and in the ACC tournament and grab one of the four No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday.