10 Teams Built to Bust Brackets in the 2016 NCAA Tournament
When it comes to the madness of March, there's no greater source than mid-major college basketball teams that lay waste to your bracket.
All season long most attention is paid toward teams from the power conferences, which will end up comprising two-thirds of the NCAA tournament field. It's from this group that we'll be looking to identify Final Four and national championship contenders, but only if they can avoid getting knocked off by a little guy.
Every team on this list has either won its league's regular-season title or is in line to do so, but it won't make the NCAA tourney without claiming an automatic bid as conference tournament champion. From there, the rest is gravy, making these nothing-to-lose teams incredibly dangerous.
Last season we saw Georgia State and Alabama-Birmingham take down third-seeded Baylor and Iowa State, respectively, rendering many brackets worthless right off the bat. Who could be doing the busting this month? Check out our list of potential bracket destroyers.
NOTE: NCAA tournament seeds are based on Bleacher Report bracket expert Kerry Miller's most recent projection.
Arkansas-Little Rock
1 of 10
Record: 27-4, 17-3 Sun Belt
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2011
Why them?
Arkansas-Little Rock lost its regular-season finale Thursday, falling at Appalachian State, but the Trojans had already clinched the Sun Belt title more than a week ago. They rolled through the league much like they did their nonconference schedule, with a plodding style that minimizes the number of possessions and emphasizes defense.
UALR entered Thursday ranked second in the country in scoring defense, allowing 59.5 points per game, holding opponents to 64.6 possessions per 40 minutes and 38.5 percent shooting. Its defensive rating is sixth-best in Division I.
The Trojans' only loss outside of the Sun Belt was at Texas Tech, but they pulled off wins at San Diego State and Tulsa.
Most likely March hero
Marcus Johnson Jr. The 5'11” junior guard averages only 12.7 points per game, but he's a 46.5 percent shooter from three-point range. The junior college transfer has five 20-point games and six with at least four made threes, and over UALR's last six games he's made 17 of 33 outside shots.
Projected seed: 12th
Chattanooga
2 of 10
Record: 26-5, 15-3 Southern
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2009
Why them?
First-year coach Matt McCall, an assistant from 2011-15 on Billy Donovan's final Florida teams, led Chattanooga to its first Southern Conference regular-season title since 2011. More impressive, though, were early wins by the Mocs over Dayton, Georgia and Illinois, winning those games by a combined eight points, including in overtime at Georgia.
Much of Chattanooga's team is what was brought there by previous coach Will Wade, now at VCU, though Mark Wiedmer of the Chattanooga Times Free Press notes that McCall is the one who has the Mocs “playing as they have not played in decades, with a quiet confidence that their best performances are still to come this season.”
The Mocs force nearly eight steals per game, and despite losing leading scorer Casey Jones to an ankle injury in December, they've kept the run going with a deep rotation in which eight other players average at least 6.0 points and 14.9 minutes per game.
Most likely March hero
Eric Robertson. No active player averages more than 12.2 points per game for Chattanooga, but when it needs a big three-pointer, the call goes to Robertson. The 6'4” senior guard has 187 career threes, 76 coming this season, and in the past two years he's shot 43 percent from deep.
Projected seed: 14th
Hawaii
3 of 10
Record: 24-4, 13-2 Big West
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2002
Why them?
There are at least two tournament-caliber teams that won't be making the tournament this year because of postseason bans, with SMU held by the NCAA, while Louisville self-imposed its ban to get ahead of an ongoing investigation about alleged recruiting violations involving an escort service. Hawaii has been slapped with sanctions as well, related to "ethical conduct rules" that former coach Gib Arnold violated, but its ban isn't until the 2016-17 postseason.
That was announced right before Christmas, as the Rainbow Warriors were hosting their annual Diamond Head Classic tournament. Since then, they've played with an intensity fueled by the knowledge that it's this year or...not for at least two more.
Hawaii nearly knocked off then-unbeaten Oklahoma in that tournament, soundly beating Auburn and Northern Iowa along the way. In the Big West the Warriors are 7-0 on the road, which included a Feb. 20 victory at defending league champ UC Irvine.
Most likely March hero
Stefan Jankovic. The 6'11” junior forward—not to be confused with 6'11” junior Stefan Jovanovic—leads Hawaii in scoring (16.3), rebounding (6.7), blocks (1.2) and field-goal shooting (57.4 percent). A transfer from Missouri, he also shoots 41.4 percent from three-point range and has averaged 20.2 points over his last six contests.
Projected seed: 14th
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Monmouth
4 of 10
Record: 25-6, 17-3 MAAC
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2006
Why them?
Monmouth may be the most well-known non-power conference team in college basketball this season, but take away its attention-drawing bench celebrations and the Hawks are worth being noticed for their actual play. They opened the season with a win at UCLA, the first of five wins over power teams (including Notre Dame and USC).
Led by coach King Rice, a former North Carolina standout who employs a breakneck pace to the offense, Monmouth is averaging 80.3 points per game and is skilled at drawing fouls. The Hawks take nearly 24 free throws per game, and they make 0.302 free throws per field-goal attempt, which ranks 36th in Division I.
Monmouth gives up a lot of points but defends well, holding opponents to 39.1 percent shooting. However, a lack of size leads to rebounding issues, with foes pulling down 35.2 percent of their missed shots.
Most likely March hero
Justin Robinson. Don't let his size fool you. The 5'8” junior guard plays much bigger and most teams have seen this in person. He's scoring 20.2 points per game on 45.8 percent shooting, making 41.5 percent of his threes, while leading Monmouth in assists (3.7) and pulling down a healthy 3.5 rebounds per game.
Projected seed: 12th
Saint Mary's
5 of 10
Record: 25-4, 15-3 West Coast
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2013
Why them?
Saint Mary's has used its Australian pipeline to produce NBA stars (Matthew Dellavedova, Patty Mills) and establish itself as one of the most consistent mid-majors in the country not named Gonzaga. This year the Gaels tied for first with Gonzaga in the conference, but a season sweep of the Bulldogs gave them the No. 1 seed.
Three of their last five NCAA tournament bids have been as an at-large, but this year St. Mary's didn't have the schedule to make that happen again. It did knock off Stanford at home and lost by four at Cal, but otherwise it's just done really well against a relatively weak slate.
That's masked what has been another efficient and disciplined team. The Gaels lead the nation in offensive rating (119.5) and field-goal shooting (50.9 percent) and are fifth in scoring defense (60.4).
Most likely March hero
Emmett Naar. Another Aussie product, the 6'1” sophomore guard leads the Gaels in scoring (13.9) and assists (6.2) and is a sharpshooter from deep. He's made 48.6 percent of his three-pointers, but doesn't take enough shots to qualify for the national rankings.
Projected seed: 12th
Stephen F. Austin
6 of 10
Record: 24-5, 17-0 Southland
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2015
Why them?
The only team that's yet to lose in conference play this season, Stephen F. Austin can complete a second perfect league slate in the last three years with a win Saturday at Sam Houston State. The Lumberjacks have gone 68-3 in the conference since 2011-12, and they're gunning for their third consecutive automatic bid.
And there are plenty of players remaining from the previous NCAA tourney squads, including the 2014 version that upset VCU in the second round. Dallas Cameron was a freshman and Trey Pinkey and Thomas Walkup were sophomores that season, and their tourney experience will be invaluable in another journey through March Madness.
SFA is one of the best in the country at sharing the ball, assisting on 66.1 percent of its made field goals. That ranks fourth in the country, with eight players averaging at least one assist per game.
Most likely March hero
Walkup. The 6'4” senior guard came close to his second straight triple-double Thursday, with 10 points, seven rebounds and eight assists in a win at Northwestern State after going for 12, 15 and 10 on Monday at Incarnate Word. He averages 16.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists, all team highs, and shoots 58.0 percent.
Projected seed: 14th
Stony Brook
7 of 10
Record: 24-6, 14-2 America East
Last NCAA tournament bid: None
Why them?
Fate has not been on the side of the Seawolves, who have made the America East tournament final in four of the last five seasons, only to lose every time. The last two years were at the hands of Albany, but with the Great Danes having lost at home in the tourney quarterfinals Wednesday, the door is wide-open for Stony Brook.
That is, assuming it doesn't fall into the trap that has already taken out two regular-season champions in conference tournaments, with the Atlantic Sun's North Florida and the Patriot's Bucknell both losing Thursday.
Stony Brook trailed in the first half Wednesday against Maryland-Baltimore County before its star took over. Jameel Warney had 27 points and 23 rebounds in that 86-76 win, leaving the Seawolves two games from their ultimate goal.
Most likely March hero
Warney. A double-double machine throughout his career, the 6'8” senior forward became the 110th player in Division I history with 2,000 points and 1,200 rebounds in his career earlier this season, according to the America East Conference. He's averaging a career-high 18.9 points along with 10.6 rebounds this season, the second year in a row he's averaged double figures in both categories.
Projected seed: 13th
Alabama-Birmingham
8 of 10
Record: 25-5, 15-2 Conference USA
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2015
Why them?
Alabama-Birmingham got hot at the right time last season, winning the C-USA conference tourney as its No. 4 seed and then carrying that into an upset of third-seeded Iowa State. That was the youngest team in the field, but this year the Blazers have steamrolled their league, and the league tournament is on the Bartow Arena court where they've won 28 straight games.
Averaging better than 79 points per game, UAB shoots well from all over the court and passes the ball as well as any team in the country. Its most notable out-of-league win was over Stephen F. Austin, which has won 17 in a row since then.
Five players average 9.3 points per game or more, and five players make at least 34 percent of their three-pointers.
Most likely March hero
Robert Brown. The only senior on the team, the 6'5” guard scored 21 points in UAB's win over Iowa State last year and is second in scoring this season at 13.2 points per game. He's made a team-best 58 three-pointers, hitting on 40.3 percent of his attempts.
Projected seed: 15th
Valparaiso
9 of 10
Record: 26-5, 16-2 Horizon
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2015
Why them?
Remember that Oakland team that pushed unbeaten Michigan State to the limit back in December, the one with explosive scorer Kay Felder? Valparaiso swept Oakland, the same thing it did with most teams in its league in winning its fourth regular-season title in the last five years.
The Crusaders nearly knocked off Maryland in the second round of last season's NCAA tournament, and all five starters are back for another postseason run.
Valpo is going to defend opponents into submission, ranking first nationally in defensive rating (88.8), third in field-goal defense (37.8 percent) and seventh in scoring defense (61.0).
Most likely March hero
Alec Peters. The 6'9” senior forward is the offensive force on an otherwise balanced team, scoring 17.5 points with 8.3 rebounds per game while shooting 50.3 percent. He's also a 45.8 percent three-point shooter, making for a matchup nightmare who has scored 20 points eight times, including 39 in a January win at Detroit.
Projected seed: 11th
Weber State
10 of 10
Record: 22-8, 14-3 Big Sky
Last NCAA tournament bid: 2014
Why them?
Weber State has been involved in its fair share of drama when making the NCAA tournament, beating North Carolina in 1999 and Michigan State in 1995 as No. 14 seeds, and two years ago the Wildcats were the most recent of 15 No. 16 seeds to lose by single digits against Arizona. That team featured one of the key ingredients from this year's team, senior forward Joel Bolomboy.
Bolomboy, a 6'9” forward, averages 17.6 points and 12.9 rebounds, the latter stat ranking third in the country.
Weber State shoots 48.4 percent, with its four top scorers all shooting better than 50 percent.
Most likely March hero
Jeremy Senglin. Bolomboy is a beast down low, but guard play is a key to pulling NCAA tournament upsets. Senglin is a 6'2” junior guard who leads the team in scoring at 17.9 points per game, shooting 50.3 percent overall and 45.7 percent from three-point range.
Projected seed: 16th
All advanced statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com. Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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