Best Teams That Could Miss March Madness If They Don't Win Conference Tournament

Teams on the bubble are jockeying for position as Selection Sunday approaches, and conference tournaments will have a major impact on which teams get into the NCAA tournament.

Several teams on the bubble could earn at-large berths without winning their conference tournaments. For example, if Syracuse wins a game or two in the ACC tournament, that should be enough to get the Orange into the NCAA tournament field. Syracuse might even get in if it loses its conference tournament opener, but it would be dicey. Providence, Oregon State, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Cincinnati and Connecticut are other teams in that category.

For this article, we are picking out quality teams that may need to go all the way in their conference tournaments, because an automatic berth may be their only entry into the NCAA tournament. At the very least, players and coaches from these teams will be sweating profusely on Selection Sunday if they must depend on an at-large berth to get in.

We picked the top 15 teams in that category. These are not the only teams in this precarious situation, just the ones we deem to be the best.

The teams are listed in ascending order of their quality, with the best team that may need to win its conference tournament presented last.

To determine a team's NCAA tournament status as of this week, we relied on the projected tournament fields of three sources: Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Shelby Mast of USA Today. The projections of CBS Sports and USA Today were updated March 1. The ESPN projection was updated March 2. The source for RPI-related statistics is ESPN, providing information through games of March 2.

15. Florida Gators

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Overall record: 17-13

Conference record: 8-9

RPI: 55

Best wins: St. Joseph's, West Virginia

Worst losses: Tennessee

Florida has faded right out of the NCAA at-large picture.

After its Feb. 12 victory over Georgia, Florida seemed to be in good position for an NCAA berth. But it has lost all four games since then, changing the narrative. USA Today has the Gators as a No. 10 seed in its tournament projection, but the other two do not have Florida in their 68-team fields at all.

Florida has enough good wins to earn consideration for an at-large berth, but 13 losses and an 8-9 record in the Southeastern Conference are not numbers a selection committee would view favorably.

The win over West Virginia is the one result that demands attention. The Gators led that game by 20 points on several occasions in the second half while blowing the Mountaineers off the court. The fact West Virginia is now in second place in what many consider the best conference in the country, the Big 12, lends significance to that victory.

However, a victory over St. Joseph's is Florida's only other win in its 11 games against RPI top-50 opponents, and the Gators are slipping down the stretch. Three weeks ago, an NCAA tournament berth seemed assured. Now it may be dependent on the Gators winning the SEC tournament.

14. Clemson Tigers

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Overall record: 16-13

Conference record: 9-8

RPI: 116

Best wins: Louisville, Duke, Miami

Worst losses: Massachusetts, Minnesota

Clemson indicated it could pose a problem for any team in the NCAA tournament during its remarkable 23-day run in January. The Tigers beat Syracuse (on the road), Louisville, Duke and Miami in succession, then dropped a close road game against Virginia after being within three points in the final two minutes, and ended the run with a 13-point victory over Pittsburgh.

You may not find a team in the country that had a better three-week stretch than that. The Tigers' work in January suggests they are an NCAA tournament-caliber team, but 12 losses and an ugly RPI of 116 make an at-large NCAA berth virtually impossible.

The Tigers are just 3-6 since their victory over Pitt, and recent losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina State no doubt killed any lingering chance for an at-large bid.

The poor finish to the regular season as well as the poor start to the season, which included November losses to Minnesota and Massachusetts, reflect the inconsistency of this talented Clemson team, which must win the tough ACC tournament to get into the NCAA tournament.

13. San Diego State Aztecs

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Overall record: 22-8

Conference record: 15-2

RPI: 59

Best wins: California

Worst losses: Grand Canyon (at home), San Diego

The Mountain West had built a reputation as a multiple-bid conference.  Five Mountain West Conference teams got NCAA tournament berths in 2012, and five more made it in 2013.

This season the status of the conference has dropped so significantly that its regular-season champion might not get into the NCAA tournament. San Diego State has already clinched the outright regular-season Mountain West title with a game remaining, but by no means are the Aztecs assured an NCAA tournament berth.

ESPN and USA Today have San Diego State plugged in as a No. 12 seed in their NCAA projections, while CBS Sports has it seeded No. 13. In other words, the only reason San Diego State is included at all is because it is in first place in the Mountain West, and each conference is represented in the projections.

The simple truth is if the Aztecs don't win the conference tournament, they are probably headed for the NIT.

San Diego State has only one quality win, and that was on a neutral court against California in November, before the Bears figured out how to win.

Grand Canyon is better than people realize, but San Diego State's loss to that team on the Aztecs' home court is still an embarrassing result. Even more embarrassing was the Aztecs' loss to crosstown rival San Diego, which went 4-14 in the West Coast Conference.

With no Mountain West team currently among the RPI top 80, the Aztecs cannot help their cause with a victory in the conference tournament. They can only ruin their chances with a loss.

12. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

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Overall record: 19-10

Conference record: 11-6

RPI: 45

Best wins: Wichita State, SMU (on the road)

Worst losses: Oral Roberts (at home), Memphis

Any team with 10 losses has to be concerned about its postseason status.

The Golden Hurricane are not in the CBS Sports or ESPN projected NCAA tournament fields at the moment, and a win in their final regular-season game against South Florida is not likely to put them in. There is some disagreement about Tulsa, though, because USA Today has the Golden Hurricane as a No. 10 seed in its projected field and not among the last four teams it included.

It's safe to say Tulsa's NCAA tournament situation is uncertain.

Beating SMU in Dallas is a major feather in Tulsa's cap because that is SMU's only home loss of the season. The Golden Hurricane's victory over Wichita State is also noteworthy because it occurred when Fred VanVleet was healthy.

Victories over Cincinnati, Connecticut and Temple in conference action also might play well in the selectors' minds, but the losses to Memphis and Oral Roberts, both of which are outside the RPI top 140, are not pretty and can offset a lot of good work.

Tulsa might squeeze into the NCAA tournament if it wins a game or two in the American Athletic Conference tournament, but the ambivalent responses to Tulsa's accomplishments suggest a conference tournament title may be required.

11. Alabama Crimson Tide

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Overall record: 17-11

Conference record: 8-8

RPI: 55

Best wins: Wichita State, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Texas A&M

Worst losses: Mississippi State, Auburn

Alabama has pushed its way into the NCAA tournament at-large discussion by winning six of its past eight games, including road wins over LSU and Florida and a victory over Texas A&M. That indicates the Crimson Tide are improving under first-year coach Avery Johnson and could be a factor in the postseason. 

Nonetheless, Alabama's overall record and .500 mark in the Southeastern Conference are numbers that typically do not translate into an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament. The Feb. 20 home loss to Mississippi State that ended a five-game winning streak did not help Alabama's case, either.

Although CBS Sports and USA Today have Alabama in their projected 68-team fields at the moment, ESPN does not. The Tide are in no position to feel secure, even though their five victories over RPI top-50 teams provide a pretty strong statement.

Alabama finds itself in a scramble with fellow SEC teams Vanderbilt, Florida and LSU for one of the last spots in the NCAA tournament field. Only a run through the SEC tournament will guarantee the Tide a spot.

10. Valparaiso Crusaders

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Overall record: 26-5

Conference record: 16-2

RPI: 42

Best wins: Oregon State

Worst losses: Ball State, Wright State (twice)

The image of Valparaiso guard Bryce Drew sliding across the floor after making his game-winning three-point shot against Mississippi in 1998 remains a quintessential NCAA tournament memory. This season's Valparaiso team coached by Drew is better than its 1998 version, but this season's squad might not make it to the field of 68.

The 1998 Crusaders entered the Mid-Continent Conference tournament with a 19-9 record, including a season-opening loss to Bethel. This season's Crusaders are 26-5 with a victory over Oregon State and close road loss to Oregon.

However, the Crusaders have been given a No. 12 seed in all three of the NCAA tournament projections, getting a spot by virtue of being in first place in the Horizon League. Translated, the seeding means that if Valparaiso fails to win the Horizon League tournament, it has little chance of getting an NCAA bid.

The Crusaders' problem is it is the only team in the Horizon League with an RPI in the top 100. Not only does Valpo receive little credit for its 16 conference wins and major deductions for its two conference losses, but any loss in the conference tournament will be viewed as proof the Crusaders are not NCAA tournament-worthy.

Valpo's four-day stay in the state of Oregon early in the season showed the Crusaders can play with the big boys. Oregon is undefeated at home, but on Nov. 22, Valparaiso gave the Ducks their stiffest home-court challenge of the season, as the Crusaders trailed by just two points with 30 seconds left before losing by six. Three days later, the Crusaders won on the home court of Oregon State, whose chances at landing an NCAA tournament berth look pretty good at the moment.

9. Virginia Commonwealth Rams

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Overall record: 21-8

Conference record: 13-3

RPI: 47

Best wins: St. Joseph's (on the road), St. Bonaventure

Worst losses: Massachusetts, George Mason

Virginia Commonwealth is tied for first place in the Atlantic 10, a game ahead of Dayton, which seems to have an NCAA tournament berth locked up. Yet the Rams are still not on solid ground in terms of getting into the field of 68.

CBS Sports and USA Today do not have VCU in their projected NCAA tournament fields at all, and ESPN has it in as a No. 10 seed.

VCU beat St. Joseph's on the road, and the Rams held their own against the two best teams they played, Duke and Wisconsin. Their RPI is not great, but it is better than some teams more likely to get into the NCAA tournament, such as Michigan and Syracuse.

VCU is a good team, even without Shaka Smart as its head coach. So why do the Rams need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to be certain to get into the field of 68? Their biggest problems are the two bad losses in February to George Mason and Massachusetts, defeats that are fresh in selectors' minds. Also, VCU does not have a win over a team in the RPI top 20 and owns six losses to squads outside the RPI top 50.

It is almost unfathomable that VCU would be left out of the NCAA tournament if it wins or shares the Atlantic 10 regular-season title, especially since it might need to beat Dayton on the road Saturday to do it. But the way things are stacked at the moment, the Rams will be nervous viewers on Selection Sunday if they do not win the Atlantic 10 tournament 

8. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Overall record: 23-7

Conference record: 15-3

RPI: 65

Best wins: Washington, Connecticut, BYU (on the road)

Worst losses: St. Mary's (at home), UCLA (at home), BYU (at home)

Gonzaga has been in the NCAA tournament each of the past 17 seasons, tied for the fourth-longest active streak in the country. If the Bulldogs don't win the WCC tournament, that run may be over. Even a berth in the conference tournament finals might not be enough to overcome the shortcomings of a disappointing season that started with Gonzaga ranked No. 9. 

ESPN lifted Gonzaga into its projected field as a No. 11 seed this week, but CBS Sports and USA Today still have the Bulldogs on the outside looking in, and neither has the Bulldogs among its first four out.

Gonzaga looks like a good team whenever it plays, but its results say something else.

The truth is the Bulldogs do not have a single win over a top-50 RPI team, going 0-5 against that group. The Bulldogs made a national name for themselves by going out on the road and beating top-flight teams, but their best road victory this season is against BYU, which has an RPI of 75. Nearly invincible at home in recent years, Gonzaga lost four home games this season, including two to teams outside the RPI top 70.

Gonzaga has not done anything to embarrass itself and has not lost to any team outside the RPI top 80. The Bulldogs even finished tied for the WCC regular-season title, which usually is enough to warrant an at-large NCAA berth. However, the Bulldogs' RPI of 65 is unattractive, and noteworthy achievements are noticeably lacking. Losing twice to St. Mary's did not help, and the Jan. 22 defeat at St. Mary's, when the Bulldogs blew a 15-point lead with less than 14 minutes remaining, may have been the kiss of death.

A team with Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis in its frontcourt would worry any opponent in the NCAA tournament. But teams probably won't face that problem unless the Bulldogs win the WCC tournament.

7. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans

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Overall record: 26-3

Conference record: 16-2

RPI: 39

Best wins: Tulsa (on the road), San Diego State (on the road)

Worst losses: Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State

A quick scan of Arkansas-Little Rock's results gives the impression the Trojans should be a lock to make the NCAA tournament, no matter what happens in its conference tournament.

Little Rock's RPI of 39 is well within the range for at-large selection, and its 5-2 record against RPI top-100 teams is good enough as well. It owns road wins against two of the three best teams it faced, San Diego State and Tulsa, and losing to Texas Tech on the road is not a major setback, considering Oklahoma, Texas and Iowa State suffered the same fate in Lubbock. Little Rock's 22-point road win over DePaul strengthens the Trojans' resume, as does the fact that their 26-3 record is the best in Division I.

However, ESPN's projection put the Trojans into the field with a precarious No. 11 seed, while CBS Sports and USA Today have them as a No. 12 seed. That means the latter two sites included Little Rock only because it is in first place in the conference.

So what's the problem?

The first issue is Little Rock plays in the Sun Belt Conference, which has received a second NCAA tournament bid only twice since 1994. The second issue is any loss Little Rock suffers in the conference tournament would be a bad loss because no other Sun Belt team has an RPI in the top 100. The final issue is that loss to Arkansas State, which has an RPI of 279. A single such loss can be brushed aside for teams in major conferences, but it can be a crusher for a team like Little Rock, which looks like NCAA tournament material but may have to win its conference tournament to prove it.

6. Monmouth Hawks

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Overall record: 25-6

Conference record: 17-3

RPI: 57

Best wins: Notre Dame, USC, UCLA (on the road), Georgetown (on the road)

Worst losses: Canisius, Army, Manhattan

Wins over USC, Notre Dame, UCLA and Georgetown, the latter two on the road, would seem to indicate Monmouth is worthy of an at-large NCAA berth. A three-point loss to Dayton didn't do the Hawks any harm, either.

However, Monmouth plays in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, which changes the discussion.

The good news is the MAAC received an at-large berth as recently as 2012, when Iona got in without winning the conference tournament. Iona's records of 24-6 overall and 15-3 in the conference entering the MAAC tournament were similar to Monmouth's current marks. The bad news is 2012 was one of only two instances in which the MAAC got a second team into the NCAA tournament field.

At the moment, the Hawks are listed as a No. 11 seed in all three NCAA tournament projections, which puts them squarely on the bubble. Monmouth's RPI of 57 is not very attractive, and any loss in the conference tournament will be a sign of weakness, because no other MAAC team had an RPI in the top 90. It would remind selectors Monmouth lost three games to teams ranked outside the top 200, defeats for which there is simply no good explanation.

While casual observers would love to see talented 5'8" point guard Justin Robinson do his thing in the bright lights of the NCAA tournament, the selection committee members won't give Robinson's presence a second thought.

5. Butler Bulldogs

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Overall record: 19-9

Conference record: 8-8

RPI: 56

Best wins: Purdue, Seton Hall (on the road), Temple, Cincinnati (on the road)

Worst losses: Creighton, Marquette

Butler was almost included in the group that needs only a win or two in its conference tournament to be assured of an NCAA tournament berth. The Bulldogs might even make the NCAA field if they lose early in the Big East tournament.

However, an 8-8 Big East record and an RPI of 56 does not leave Butler in a comfortable position, and a loss in either or both of its remaining regular-season games against Seton Hall and Marquette will put additional pressure on the Bulldogs to perform well in the Big East tournament. Shelby Mast of USA Today certainly has his doubts about the Bulldogs, because he does not have Butler in his projected 68-team field this week.

Butler is just 2-7 against RPI top-50 teams, and the closest thing it has to a signature win is its Dec. 20 home victory over Purdue, which was then ranked No. 9 but is now tied for fifth in the Big Ten.

The Bulldogs don't look like the same team that started the season 11-1 and ranked No. 9, and if conference tournament upsets in other parts of the country shrink the at-large pool significantly, Butler may need a Big East tournament title to advance to the NCAA tournament 

4. LSU Tigers

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Overall record: 18-12

Conference record: 11-6 

RPI: 86

Best wins: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt (on the road)

Worst losses: North Carolina State, Charleston, Wake Forest, Tennessee

LSU is a puzzle. Some days the Tigers look like world-beaters, such as in their 18-point victory over Kentucky, and sometimes they look awful, such as in their 12-point loss to Charleston or 16-point loss to Tennessee.

They can even display the good and the bad in the same game. LSU was outstanding in building a 14-point lead with less than 16 minutes left against then-No. 1 Oklahoma, but it played poorly while frittering it away in a two-point loss. The Tigers nearly did the same thing against Florida, zooming out to what seemed to be an insurmountable 18-point lead with less than 14 minutes left before making enough mistakes to let the Gators get within two points on three occasions in the final minute.

Any team with Ben Simmons is capable of impressive feats, especially when combined with improving freshman Antonio Blakeney, who has scored 18 points or more in each of the last four games.

LSU's postseason prospects would change if it wins at Kentucky on Saturday, in which case the Tigers might need only a win or two in the SEC tournament to get an NCAA berth. Otherwise, with an RPI of 86 and a number of inexplicable losses, LSU probably will need to play at its highest level throughout the SEC tournament and win it to get into the NCAA tournament.

At the moment, none of the three sources has LSU in its projected NCAA tournament field.

3. St. Mary's Gaels

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Overall record: 24-4

Conference record: 15-3

RPI: 38

Best wins: Gonzaga (twice)

Worst losses: Pepperdine (twice)

St. Mary's has been to the NCAA tournament five times in the past 11 years, including three times as an at-large selection. In none of those five NCAA seasons did the Gaels have as few as four losses entering the West Coast Conference tournament. However, St. Mary's 24-4 record entering this year's WCC tournament may not be enough by itself to earn the Gaels an NCAA tournament berth. Getting to the WCC tournament finals might be enough, but even that is no guarantee.

The fact that the Gaels finished tied for first place in the WCC and beat Gonzaga twice indicates the strength of this St. Mary's team. That will earn St. Mary's consideration for an at-large berth, and most years, it would be enough to get it.

Both CBS Sports and USA Today have the Gaels in their projected fields as a No. 12 seed, which means they probably would not be included at all if they were not the top seed in the WCC tournament. Although the Gaels have an impressive RPI of 38, they probably have not done enough with their soft schedule to warrant an at-large berth.

St. Mary's played only one game against a top 50 RPI team, and the Gaels were pretty impressive in that game. They led California with less than 20 seconds left before losing that game on the road against a Cal team that is unbeaten at home this season.

The bottom line is St. Mary's has no wins over RPI top-50 teams. The Gaels also lost to BYU on the road, which is nothing to be embarrassed about, either.

The albatross around the Gaels' neck is those two losses to Pepperdine, which, for some reason, matched up favorably against the Gaels. 

Furthermore, any St. Mary's loss in the WCC tournament will be crippling, because no team besides the Gaels has an RPI in the top 60. The conference tournament can only make the Gaels look bad, unless they win it.

2. Temple Owls

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Overall record: 18-10

Conference record: 12-4

RPI: 61

Best wins: SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati (on the road), Connecticut (on the road)

Worst losses: Memphis, East Carolina

You would think a team tied for first place in the American Athletic Conference with two games to play would be safely into the NCAA tournament field. Such is not the case.

CBS Sports and USA Today both have the Owls as a No. 12 seed in their projected fields, while ESPN gives Temple a No. 11 seed. That suggests the Owls are hanging on by a thread, and it would not take many upsets in other conference tournaments to put the Owls out of the running if they lose in the conference tournament.

Temple has four problems in the selectors' eyes: a mediocre RPI of 61, bad losses to Memphis and East Carolina, 10 defeats overall and only one really good win, that being a home victory against SMU.

Sweeping all four games against Cincinnati and Connecticut should count for something, and it meant a lot in terms of placing Temple No. 2 on this list. But those who study these things for a living still suggest the Owls are in a precarious situation and may need to win several games in the conference tournament, and perhaps even win it, to get into the NCAA tournament.

1. Wichita State Shockers

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Overall record: 23-7

Conference record: 16-2

RPI: 43

Best wins: Utah

Worst losses: Northern Iowa, Illinois State

Wichita State's postseason status is difficult to read. There is a faction that believes the Shockers are comfortably into the field of 68, a view shared by Joe Lunardi of ESPN, who has Wichita State as a No. 7 seed in his projected field. However, there is also a faction that is not completely certain the Shockers have done enough yet, and that perspective is represented by USA Today and CBS Sports, who have the Shockers in the tenuous No. 11 seed in their projected fields.

The bigger problem for Wichita State is any loss it suffers in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament will be seen as a bad loss. The Shockers' RPI of 43 is not outstanding, but it is within the parameters of a team eligible for an at-large NCAA berth. However, no other team in the Missouri Valley Conference has an RPI in the top 90, so any Wichita State defeat in the conference tournament is going to have a significant negative effect on the Shockers' image.

Such a loss might be enough for NCAA tournament selectors to take a closer look at the Shockers' season, and they may not like what they see. Wichita State is just 1-5 against RPI top-90 teams, and that lone win was against Utah back in December.

Although the Shockers struggled early in the season when point guard Fred VanVleet was sidelined, Wichita State's two worst losses came when VanVleet was on the court, against Northern Iowa and Illinois State.

Winning the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season title by four games, as the Shockers did, would be more than enough to ensure an NCAA berth most years. It might be enough this season. But the Shockers' run of four straight NCAA tournament appearances could be in danger of ending if they do not wind up with a conference tournament crown.