March Madness 2016: Analyzing Most Deserving No. 1 Seeds for NCAA Tournament

With conference championship tournaments looming, the nation's top men's college basketball programs are now putting the finishing touches on their resumes before the madness that is the month of March. 

The best programs have had months to make their case for the top seeds in the 2016 NCAA tournament, and some clear favorites have emerged for that honor.

Here's a look at which teams a few analysts from around the web believe should be the first to hear their names called on Selection Sunday (March 13), followed by quick analysis of why four of those teams are front-runners for top billing come tournament time.

Writer	Date Published	East	West	Midwest	South
ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi	Feb. 22	Villanova	Oklahoma	Kansas	Virginia
Shelby Mast, USA Today	Feb. 23	Villanova	Oklahoma	Kansas	Xavier
Reid Forgrave, Fox Sports	Feb. 23	Villanova	Oklahoma	Kansas	Xavier
Ken Bikoff, Campus Insiders	Feb. 21	Villanova	North Carolina	Kansas	Oklahoma
CBS Sports' Jerry Palm	Feb. 22	Villanova	Oklahoma	Kansas	Xavier

Note: Bracket predictions courtesy of USA Today, FoxSports.com, ESPN.com, CampusInsiders.com and CBSSports.com.

Villanova (24-3, 13-1 Big East, RPI: No. 2)

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

As of Feb. 23, there is no good reason not to include Villanova on a list of the most deserving No. 1 seeds in the nation. No. 1 in the Associated Press rankings for the third week in a row, the Wildcats' incredible depth and strong leadership make them the team to beat in college basketball. 

All five Villanova starters average at least 10 points per game, with Josh Hart leading the way at 15.0 points per contest. The other three guys in the main rotation—guards Mikal Bridges, Phil Booth and forward Darryl Reynolds—combine to pour in 17.0 points per game. As SB Nation's Larry Flynn notes, it's all a product of head coach Jay Wright's clearly defined, but still adjustable, offensive system: 

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First, consider Villanova basketball's rhythm. The Wildcats have a clear-cut, well-defined system – an offensive identity. Even with the tremendous play of Daniel Ochefu and Darryl Reynolds this season, Jay Wright’s offense involves dribble-drives from talented guards, consistent ball movement, and a plethora of pick-and-roll sets in the halfcourt.

Occasionally, Villanova changes their system based on their players. Consider Ryan Arcidiacono’s freshman year, where Wright’s new point guard was given the green light on every single play. An even better example is this year’s team; feeding Ochefu in the paint has become a recipe for success for this team during three-point slumps.

"

Ahh yes, the three-pointer—supposedly the bane of Villanova's existence. Last year's NCAA tournament saw a top-seeded Villanova bow out in the round of 32 against North Carolina State, 71-68, on a night in which the Wildcats went 9-of-28 from beyond the arc. 

This year's iteration of the squad is shooting 32.6 percent from three, down from last year's 38.9 percent team rate. A poor shooting night from downtown is more than tolerable when the team is beating up on the likes of St. John's, but it could again spell trouble in the do-or-die nature of the NCAA tournament.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

The team is insulated somewhat from a spate of rim-clanking thanks to the aforementioned scoring depth and senior forward Daniel Ochefu's inside presence. The Wildcats also feature one of the nation's best defenses this season, ranking eighth in the nation in points per game allowed and holding opponents to 38.5 percent shooting, per NCAA.com.

Wins over Butler and Georgetown in January showed 'Nova can get it done in low-scoring affairs when the shots aren't falling.

Xavier (24-3, 12-3 Big East, RPI: No. 6)

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Virginia's brutal 64-61 loss to Miami elevates Xavier to the No. 1 seed echelon, at least until Wednesday night. That's when Xavier will take on Big East rival Villanova, a game that could all but lock the winner into a No. 1 seed while making it very difficult for the loser to remain in the top four (though the Big East tournament will be the final referendum on that matter). 

Since that game hasn't yet taken place, the Musketeers are deserving of a No. 1 seed, although strong cases can be made for both North Carolina and Miami.

The Big East is replete with private, Catholic schools, and the success of Xavier and Villanova has proven the conference restructuring that took place three years ago wasn't a death blow to the Big East's standing in the college basketball world.

“The thing that’s nice, this group of schools has found a really good niche for themselves,” said former Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese, per Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde. “They have a lot of similarities. They’re having a lot of fun, and I think what they’ve found out is that they can get want they want: they can get to the NCAA tournament and compete for a championship."

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

It's quite the nifty little niche, indeed, when you can count two of your schools as among the best in the country. The Musketeers have notched big wins over Butler, Cincinnati, Michigan and Providence (twice) this season.

Only one of their three losses, at home to Georgetown on Jan. 19, can be considered a bad loss in the sense that it's a game they absolutely should've won. Even then, it's an 11-point loss to a middling conference rival with a rich basketball tradition, so it's not a particularly bad blemish. 

The 95-64 drubbing at the hands of Villanova on Dec. 31 is the game the Musketeers are really trying to make up for on Wednesday. Xavier lost freshman point guard Edmond Sumner to a scary fall early in that contest. Sumner would only miss three games after that injury and is set to play Wednesday night.

He's had a hot hand as of late, shooting 52.9 percent from the floor in his last six games and scoring a game-high 22 points in Xavier's 88-70 win over Georgetown on Saturday. Sumner's excellent speed makes him a nightmare in transition, as seen in these highlights from the Big East's men's basketball Twitter account:

The ability of Sumner to break down defenses will certainly come in handy against a great defense like Villanova's. His presence should free up Musketeers sophomore Trevon Bluiett, who is averaging a team-high 15.3 points per game but managed just 11 on 2-of-9 shooting last time out against 'Nova. 

If Xavier can exact revenge against Villanova and/or win the Big East title, it could absolutely find itself perched atop its bracket when the NCAA tournament seeding is announced on Selection Sunday.

Kansas (24-4, 12-3 Big 12, RPI: No. 1)

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

The Jayhawks are first in the Big 12, No. 2 in the latest AP poll, handling the best teams they've faced recently and beating up on the inferior competition. 

Kansas' 66-60 road win against No. 19 Baylor on Tuesday further burnished the team's already-sterling credentials and virtually guarantees them the regular-season Big 12 title; at the very least, they should get a share of it.  Even though Baylor has been playing some great basketball as of late, the Jayhawks simply weren't in the mood to drop a key late-season game, writes ESPN.com's Eamonn Brennan: 

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Unfortunately, Kansas happens to be an unfeeling basketball goliath that dissembles its enemies in ruthless, methodical fashion. Self's team averaged 1.20 points per trip Tuesday in Waco, Texas. It generated good looks against man defense and picked apart Baylor's zone. Perry Ellis, the quietest All-American in the country, was key on that front; point guard Frank Mason III had his typically solid all-around game; and Devonte Graham continued his emergence as a crucial dual-point threat.

It was close throughout, sure, but never felt out of the Jayhawks' hands. As the possessions grew tighter and tighter down the stretch, Kansas' fundamental defensive solidity (smart help, good rotations, maintaining shape) and angular offense carried it to the finish.

"

Even when facing immense pressure from a good team, coach Bill Self's squad remains, ahem, selfless and grinds out victories. Kansas' win streak is now at eight games. It includes victories over No. 14 West Virginia and No. 3 Oklahoma, as well as a 94-62 dismantling of Oklahoma State on Feb. 15. 

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

Junior center/forward Landen Lucas has emerged as a force on the glass, with 54 rebounds in the past five games. If he can keep up the strong play, Kansas' starting five looks to be one of the best in the nation, with no real glaring weaknesses. 

Three-pointers have also become a key part of the Jayhawks' winning ways, despite Self's aversion to the long-distance shots. Kansas sank eight of its 19 attempts from downtown against Baylor, right in line with its 42.3 percent clip on the season. 

The Jayhawks still aren't overly reliant on the three-ball, as they can always dump it inside to Perry Ellis or let Frank Mason III drive to the hoop. If they get into the NCAA tournament and the three-pointers stop dropping with consistency, good team defense and Self's battle-tested offensive philosophies could keep the Jayhawks afloat.

Oklahoma (21-5, 9-5 Big 12, RPI: No. 3) 

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

The Jayhawks may be sinking threes at an incredible rate, but no team in the country is deadlier from downtown than Big 12 heavyweight Oklahoma. The Sooners are shooting 43.1 percent on three-pointers this season. Not surprisingly, they shoot them quite often, ranking fourth in the nation with 10.6 three-point field goals made per game, per NCAA.com.

Player of the Year candidate Buddy Hield is a responsible for a great many of those high-value shots. The senior guard is averaging 25.4 points per game and draining 48.7 percent of his threes. 

Sure, Oklahoma has lost three of its last five games, but one of those losses was to Kansas by only a four-point margin, hardly worth knocking it down a peg or two. The two wins were also of the credential-boosting variety.

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

The Sooners beat then-No. 24 Texas, 63-60, and are coming off a big 76-62 win on Saturday over conference rival West Virginia. Mountaineers head coach Bob Huggins summed up the loss in a succinct manner.

"They made more shots than we made," he said, per the Associated Press (h/t Dallas Morning News). "They've got Buddy Hield and we don't."

Hield was indeed magnificent on Saturday, scoring 29 points and knocking down 5-of-11 three-pointers. The Sooners are, of course, more than just their star player.

Senior guard Isaiah Cousins has stepped up his game on offense as of late, scoring 16 or more points in six of his last nine games. Texas head coach Shaka Smart is a big fan of the steely floor general, per the Austin American-Statesman's Kirk Bohls:

Junior guard Jordan Woodard has had his fair share of ups and downs, but he is capable of volcanic scoring nights, like his 25-point effort in a 65-63 loss to Texas Tech on Feb. 17.

Even after the win over the Mountaineers, Oklahoma is a half-game back of West Virginia for second in the Big 12 standings. Kansas has the regular-season conference title all but wrapped up, which means the Sooners will need a strong finish to the regular season and perhaps even a run to the Big 12 tournament final to hold onto a No. 1 seed.

Finishing behind West Virginia in the regular season and a bad tournament showing could have those in charge of seeding looking for a titleholder from another conference to get top billing for the Big Dance, such as the ACC, Big Ten or Pac-12.

RPI courtesy of NCAA.com and updated as of Wednesday, Feb. 24. at 7 a.m. ET.