Ranking the Most Likely Cinderella Teams as the 2016 NCAA Tournament Looms

Don't look—at least if you're the Monmouth Hawks, above, apparently—but it's already time to consider who the big tournament-run surprises will be next month.

Yes, it's time to talk Cinderella. Who will wear the slipper?

Cinderella teams are tough to predict and even tougher to define. They are traditionally (though not always) a double-digit seed. And we're not going to talk about any power-conference teams, even those with double-digit seeds.

There will be no consideration of Gonzaga or Wichita State, either, even though these teams could have lower-than-usual places in the bracket when it is unveiled March 13. Fact is they're not sneaking up on anyone anymore. (The same goes for VCU and Butler, no matter this particular year's circumstances.)

These are the real, honest-to-goodness Cinderella candidates—ones that could reasonably go from virtually not even in the tournament to belle of the ball.

We evaluated and ranked the candidates based on team performance with an emphasis on accomplishments during nonconference play, achievements of late, potential tournament seeding and the degree to which their success would surprise folks. So that means Monmouth, found at the end, wouldn't shock us like whatever is shocking those guys in the photo.

Follow along. It's almost midnight...

9. Chattanooga Mocs

David K Purdy/Getty Images

Record: 24-5 (13-3 conference)

Conference: Southern

RPI: 63

KenPom: 102

If Chattanooga Mocs head coach Matt McCall, above, is pointing toward his team's future in the NCAA tournament, we're all for following.

This is another mid-major, like the Monmouth Hawks, that really had its sights set on an at-large bid—until a 15-point loss to UNC-Greensboro on Saturday. A home defeat that just doesn't look good this time of year.

But Chattanooga, given a chance in March, wouldn't shy away from any competition. It has defeated Georgia, Dayton and Illinois. It lost by 20 at Iowa State in November, but that's an "experience" game that should suit the Mocs well down the road.

The big-picture disappointment is Chattanooga has played every league game without senior Casey Jones. The preseason pick as Southern Conference player of the year has been hurt since early December, and his status (ankle) was still unclear until Feb. 15, when he decided to call it a season.

Defensively is where issues can arise. This team isn't good at defending the rim, even though junior transfer Tre' McLean is a 6'5" forward with a 7-foot wingspan, according to the school.

8. Hawaii Warriors

Darryl Oumi/Getty Images

Record: 22-3 (11-1 conference)

Conference: Big West

RPI: 78

KenPom: 51

Watch any of the holiday tournaments that roll through Hawaii—whether it's the Maui Invitational or the Diamond Head Classic—and it's easy to wonder why the state's biggest school hasn't been particularly great at basketball. Beaches, great weather, a chance to play some good teams that are looking for winter warmth—what's not to like?

Hawaii's last NCAA tournament appearance came in 2002, but that could change this year behind a first-year head coach.

Eran Ganot was a big reason why West Coast Conference member Saint Mary's thrived (especially with foreign recruiting), and he's fostered a great environment with some power-school transfers and the team's belief in itself.

Stefan Jankovic (formerly of Missouri) is finding his groove after not being eligible until the midway point of last season. The 6'11" junior notably makes 62.3 percent of his two-point shots, and veteran guard Roderick Bobbitt is in the top 40 nationally in steal percentage.

Hawaii dropped one game to Texas Tech (the Red Raiders have positioned themselves for an at-large bid these days) and lost by only three to Oklahoma in Honolulu two days before Christmas, when Bobbitt put up a career-high 32 points and Jankovic had 17.

Ganot has continued his mentor's stance defensively, too. Like Randy Bennett and Saint Mary's, Hawaii is fantastic at guarding the three-point line.

7. Saint Mary's Gaels

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Record: 22-4 (13-3 conference)

Conference: West Coast

RPI: 59

KenPom: 40

Saint Mary's tends to get lost in the mix—even within its conference, as it's surrounded by Gonzaga and BYU. Never regarded as an NBA pipeline, either, it's quietly produced Patty Mills and Matthew Dellavedova.

Always regarded as the Bulldogs' little brothers, the Gaels nonetheless won both of the teams' meetings this year and are tied with the Zags for first place in the West Coast race.

Saint Mary's is an odd team to consider for an at-large bid, as it didn't even leave the state of California until Feb. 4—yes, Feb. 4!–when it was throttled at the Cougars. That defeat, combined with getting swept by Pepperdine, leaves some room for the Gaels to pad their NCAA portfolio. They also lost at underwhelming Cal.

But it's a balanced offensive team that has taken on head coach Randy Bennett's erstwhile traits: It shoots the three well but doesn't let opponents do the same.

Sophomore point guard Emmett Naar is eighth nationally in three-point shooting, just ahead of Oklahoma star Buddy Hield (OK, so it's by 0.1 percent, and Naar takes one-third as many shots...).

The rotation features three sophomores, two juniors and one freshman. There's room for this team to grow, and if it gets a crack at the NCAA tournament this year, it could be devastating for some high seed that thinks the only threat the WCC offers is Gonzaga.

6. Stony Brook Seawolves

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Record: 23-5 (14-1 conference)

Conference: America East

RPI: 57

KenPom: 57

If you've never heard of Jameel Warney, perhaps you haven't heard of Ken Pomeroy, either.

Stony Brook's 6'8" senior is the keystone to what the Seawolves feel is finally their time to make a dash to the NCAA tournament. They'll be the top seed in the America East tournament, which means home-court advantage as long as they play.

Warney is also a KenPom all-star, the MVP of the league and a big-time stat-stuffer. He's in the top 35 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, blocks and effective field-goal percentage.

Last year, Warney's team led most of the conference title tilt at Albany before a somewhat miraculous three-point shot ended that bid.

Stony Brook doesn't really work hard to get to the foul line, which could be a problem in March. But Warney's size and presence could be enough to mess with teams' game plans and rotations. He's clever enough to usually stay out of foul trouble, too. Conference opponents are often required to double-team him.

The only question is if the Seawolves would feel satisfied in making their first tournament or be hungry for more. Three times in the previous six years, Stony Brook has won the America East regular-season title but bowed out of the conference tournament, which means it has not gotten to hear its name called on Selection Sunday.

5. Belmont Bruins

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Record: 20-9 (12-3 conference)

Conference: Ohio Valley (East)

RPI: 85

KenPom: 122

If you know a little about Gonzaga or Kansas, then Belmont is sort of in the same neighborhood.

The Bruins on Saturday secured at least a share of their eighth regular-season conference championship in the last 11 years. Only Kansas and Gonzaga have more regular-season league titles than Belmont since 2006.

But this isn't just an in-conference wonder.

It was a No. 15 seed last year that gave Virginia everything it wanted in the early going, even producing an 18-12 lead in the opening six minutes.

Evan Bradds and Craig Bradshaw have experience from last season, which includes a combined 35 points and 5-of-10 three-point shooting against the Cavaliers. (Bradshaw did most of the damage, hitting on five of his nine attempts.)

Belmont is in the top five nationally in effective field-goal percentage, too. It is not particularly good at forcing turnovers on defense or avoiding them on offense. But with four NCAA appearances in the previous five years, the timing could be right for the Bruins to steal a victory from a big-name program.

4. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans

Associated Press

Record: 24-3 (14-2 conference)

Conference: Sun Belt

RPI: 44

KenPom: 36

Sure, that might be first-year head coach Chris Beard, above, putting the brakes on the offense. That's this team's M.O.

And it works.

Arkansas-Little Rock is one of the slowest teams in Division I—the Trojans suck up an average of 19 seconds per possession—and guards Josh Hagins and Marcus Johnson Jr. each average about 12 points per game to lead the team.

With its slow play, terrific three-point defense and superb foul-shooting, Arkansas-Little Rock could be a nightmare matchup.

The big question is if it could exert its will on a superior athletic team. The ledger includes a loss to Texas Tech, and its most notable wins are against Tulsa and San Diego State. It's not impossible to get the wayward-shooting Aztecs into a 49-43 game (that was the final score, sadly), but that was still a season-low output for SDSU.

And the Trojans become just the 12th team (and sixth non-Mountain West member) to beat the Aztecs at home since 2005.

As for Beard, he has a solid pedigree. He spent the past two seasons as the head coach at Division II Angelo State and went 47-15. Before that, he was an assistant with Texas Tech for 10 seasons, working for Bob Knight during some of that time.

3. San Diego State Aztecs

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Record: 20-7 (13-1 conference)

Conference: Mountain West

RPI: 51

KenPom: 60

Trapped with a so-so record and in a conference that is really down, there's San Diego State—which does one thing great.

It plays chuck and chase.

The Aztecs, as seems to be their calling card every year, are a pitiful shooting team that is great at snaring offensive rebounds. They corral about 34 percent of their misses, which is in the top 50 nationally.

The perplexing thing is they get to the line a lot but aren't good from there (69.3 percent). So, it could come down to getting (and converting) three-point plays.

Head coach Steve Fisher has the experience. He's taken six consecutive San Diego State squads to the NCAA tournament, and the last three have won at least one game.

This group won't be fazed by any level of competition or style. It has faced turn-you-over West Virginia, versatile Kansas and dominant-big-man Utah, though it lost to all three. The Aztecs won't fall apart if they have a bad shooting night, either.

They'll use that to their advantage with typical Fisher-recruited length all over the floor.

2. Valparaiso Crusaders

Chris Pietsch/Associated Press

Record: 24-5 (14-2 conference)

Conference: Horizon

RPI: 60

KenPom: 31

When March rolls around, it's impossible for anyone in at least their 30s to not think of the program affectionately known as Valpo.

Two words: Bryce Drew, circa 1998.

That group went 23-10, won its league and made it to the Sweet 16.

Dare we say this team could measure up?

The 24-5 Crusaders, loaded with experience, do virtually everything well.

Alec Peters, a 6'9" junior, is a matchup nightmare like Iowa star Jarrod Uthoff, shooting 45.4 percent from three-point range. Valparaiso can spread the minutes around but also knows exactly who it is.

It won at Rhode Island before the Rams' season went haywire. The Crusaders also hung tight at Oregon and won at Oregon State.

And there are two makings for a great Cinderella storyline. The loss at the Ducks on Nov. 22 marked Valparaiso's 39th straight defeat to a ranked opponent, a streak that dates back to Drew's remarkable last-second shot against Mississippi 18 years ago.

Oh, and did we mention Drew is the head coach now?

1. Monmouth Hawks

Mel Evans/Associated Press

Record: 23-6 (15-3 conference)

Conference: Metro Atlantic Athletic

RPI: 45  

KenPom: 66 

What is there not to love about this team?

Certainly, the NCAA tournament committee can't give teams bids just because of their popularity or storyline potential. Right now, LSU doesn't deserve to go—even if it does have Ben Simmons. BYU doesn't deserve to go, either—even if it does have triple-double master Kyle Collinsworth.

But Monmouth is on some bubbly, shaky ground. And that seems unfair.

A team that ousted UCLA at Pauley Pavilion, Notre Dame on a neutral court and also won at Georgetown has a solid portfolio that has slipped a little due to conference woes.

A 16-point home loss to Iona (a bitter rematch after the visiting Hawks won the first meeting) on Feb. 19 doesn't look good right now.

Monmouth is led by a 5'8" point guard, Justin Robinson, whose style could be a blessing or curse for his team in March. The Hawks play at the seventh-fastest pace in the country, using less than 15 seconds per possession. And they don't go after rebounds, either. So they could produce a quick flurry of points or a maddening level of futility.

What we know for sure is Monmouth has a tough chore ahead just to get the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference's automatic bid. Iona and Manhattan always seem to put themselves in good positions come tournament time, and the MAAC tournament is played on Siena's home floor, which could present an interesting conundrum for the tournament committee should the Hawks lose to the Saints.

Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com and KenPom.com. Numbers current through the start of play on Feb. 24.