Latest College Basketball Power Rankings for the ACC in 2015-16
The Atlantic Coast Conference has six teams ranked among the Top 20 in this week's Associated Press poll, the most of any conference. Within the 15-team conference, the hierarchy of the teams seems to change every week, making the ACC power ranking a fluid assessment.
These latest ACC power rankings are based on results through games on Feb. 15, and six factors were considered: overall record, conference record, Associated Press ranking, RPI, quality of opposition and average NCAA tournament seeding as determined by averaging the team's seeding in the latest projected NCAA tournament fields of Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com.
Recent results were given more weight because they provide a better indication of how a team is playing now.
The source for statistics is NCAA.com and NCAA.org, unless otherwise noted. The source for RPI rankings and RPI statistics is ESPN.com's RPI.
15. Boston College
1 of 15
Overall Record: 7-18
Conference Record: 0-12
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 194
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: None
Best Wins: Fordham, New Hampshire
Worst Losses: Massachusetts-Lowell, Santa Clara
Boston College has a solid grip on the bottom spot in the ACC power rankings, and the gap between it and No. 14 Wake Forest is wide. The Eagles have not won a game in 2016, with its last win coming on Dec. 30.
The Eagles lost at home to Massachusetts-Lowell, an America East team not eligible for Division I postseason play because it is still transitioning from Division II. Boston College has backed that up by going winless through the conference season so far, and only one of those 12 ACC losses was by fewer than 10 points.
Boston College has won only two games against teams with winning records: New Hampshire, which is 15-10, and Fordham, which is 13-12 overall and 3-9 in the Atlantic 10. The Eagles' best performance came on Feb. 9 against North Carolina, a game Boston College led by nine points with 17 minutes left and by seven with seven minutes remaining, only to lose 68-63. Boston College promptly lost its next game at home by 14 points to Syracuse.
The Eagles' lone motivation at this point is to avoid becoming the first team since 1987 to go though ACC play winless.
14. Wake Forest
2 of 15
Overall Record: 10-15
Conference Record: 1-12
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 111
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: None
Best Wins: Indiana, LSU on the road
Worst Losses: Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Wake Forest has two good wins and has lost several close games, which makes the Demon Deacons look better than a 14th-place team. However, you are what your record says you are, and with just one conference victory, the Demon Deacons are not very good.
Wake Forest entered conference play with hope, having beaten two teams that are now competing for titles in major conferences, Indiana and LSU. The Demon Deacons also had two other major upsets snatched from their grasp in disappointing ways.
They had an 18-point lead in the first half at home against Xavier, which is 22-3 and ranked No. 8, but lost that game by eight. The loss to Virginia was even more heart-wrenching, as the Demon Deacons had a seven-point lead and the ball with 24 seconds left, only to lose by one point when Virginia's Darius Thompson banked in a three-pointer at the buzzer.
Wake Forest enters Tuesday's road game against Pittsburgh on a 10-game losing streak, and four of the five losses since the crushing Virginia defeat have been by double-digit margins.
13. North Carolina State
3 of 15
Overall Record: 13-13
Conference Record: 3-10
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 98
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: None
Best Wins: Miami, Pittsburgh on the road, LSU
Worst Losses: William & Mary, Arizona State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech at home
North Carolina State has had its moments, such as the 16-point win over Miami, when Anthony "Cat" Barber scored 30 points, or the 17-point road victory over Pittsburgh, when Barber scored 31. The Wolfpack have come close on several other occasions, losing four ACC games by five points or less.
None of that disguises the fact that the Wolfpack have won just three conference games and handed Wake Forest its only ACC victory of the season. The problem is that Barber can do only so much. He has played 40 minutes or more 14 times this season, including the last six games in a row. Barber has scored more than 30 points six times this season, and North Carolina State lost two of those, including the home defeat against Georgia Tech.
The Wolfpack avenged their earlier loss to Wake Forest by beating the Demon Deacons 99-88 in Raleigh on Saturday, as Barber poured in a career-high 38 points. But North Carolina State's 20-point loss to Virginia on Monday halted any momentum before it could get started. Barber scored just 14 points in that game.
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12. Georgia Tech
4 of 15
Overall Record: 13-12
Conference Record: 3-9
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 86
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: None
Best Win: Virginia
Worst Losses: East Tennessee State, Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech offered some early hints that it might be a factor in the ACC race this season.
After playing well in road losses to North Carolina and Pittsburgh to open Atlantic Coast Conference play, the Yellow Jackets upset Virginia in Atlanta. Georgia Tech controlled that game, holding a 10-point lead with less than a minute remaining before easing to a 68-64 victory.
Any hopes of an at-large NCAA tournament berth ended there, though. Georgia Tech has won just two of its nine games since that promising victory over Virginia, and its victory over North Carolina State is the only reason the Yellow Jackets are No. 12 in our power rankings instead of No. 13.
The Yellow Jackets generally play well enough to be competitive but not well enough to beat good teams. They have lost five games decided by five points or less this season, and 11 of their 12 ACC games were decided by single-digit margins. Last season, Georgia Tech went 0-12 in ACC games decided by seven points or less, so this is an ongoing issue.
A recent interview with Georgia Tech athletic director Mike Bobinski in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution seemed to indicate that the Demon Deacons need several more wins for coach Brian Gregory to keep his job.
11. Virginia Tech
5 of 15
Overall Record: 13-12
Conference Record: 5-7
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 119
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: None
Best Win: Virginia
Worst Loss: Alabama State
The season-opening loss to Alabama State hinted that this might be another long season for Virginia Tech, but the Hokies began conference play as if they might be the surprise team of the ACC. They won four of their first five conference games, including a stunning upset of then-No. 4 Virginia and a victory at Georgia Tech to end their 18-game road losing streak in ACC games.
It looked like they would improve to 5-1 when they took a nine-point lead in the second half at Notre Dame. But Virginia Tech let that game slip away in a two-point loss, and things have been downhill since.
The Hokies have lost six of their past seven games, and Virginia made them pay retribution for the earlier result by handing Virginia Tech a 67-49 defeat on Saturday. The Hokies' top three scorers—Zach LeDay, Seth Allen and Justin Bibbs—combined for just 17 points on 6-of-22 shooting in that game after totaling 51 points in the victory over the Cavaliers five weeks earlier.
Virginia Tech's only win since Jan. 16 was a three-point victory over Clemson, and the Hokies nearly blew a 12-point lead with less than eight minutes left in that one.
Virginia Tech will avoid last place, a spot it occupied at the end of each of the past four seasons, so it's making progress. However, the Hokies appear destined to go without an NCAA tournament berth for the ninth straight season.
10. Florida State
6 of 15
Overall Record: 16-9
Conference Record: 6-7
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 52
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: 10.5
Best Wins: Virginia, Florida on the road, VCU
Worst Loss: Hofstra
Florida State missed an opportunity to improve its chances for an NCAA tournament berth when it dropped a 67-65 game to Miami on Sunday. The Seminoles' top two scorers, Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon, scored all of their team's points in the final four minutes to give Florida State a chance, but those two had combined for just eight points before that to put Florida State in a hole.
The Seminoles need another signature win along with the earlier victory over Virginia to solidify their postseason spot. They have lost two in a row, and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com has Florida State as one of his last four teams into the NCAA field at the moment.
That slippery grip on a projected NCAA tournament berth is not enough to rank the Seminoles ahead of Clemson, which has more quality wins and is ahead of Florida State in the standings.
The Seminoles have not lost to any ACC team below them in the standings, but they have only two wins against the nine teams above them: Virginia and Clemson. Even in the ACC, occupying 10th place in the conference standings is not a good place to be.
9. Clemson
7 of 15
Overall Record: 15-10
Conference Record: 8-5
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 87
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: None
Best Wins: Louisville, Duke, Miami
Worst Losses: Massachusetts, Minnesota
There was a two-week stretch in early January when Clemson looked like the best team in the country. Starting from Jan. 2 the Tigers won five games in a row, beating Florida State, Syracuse, Louisville, Duke and Miami in succession. All five of those teams are in the projected NCAA tournament field of Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com and Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com, and the latter three teams are ranked in the Top 25 this week. Clemson finished off that run on Jan. 16 with an 11-point victory over Miami, which is ranked No. 11.
The Tigers were 5-1 in conference play and looking like a force to be reckoned with.
However, just as mysteriously as Clemson emerged into prominence, it sank back into mediocrity. The Tigers have lost four out of their seven games since that Miami victory. In its last three games, Clemson lost to Virginia Tech on the road and Notre Dame at home before beating Georgia Tech at home.
That streak in early January is enough to keep the Tigers in contention for an NCAA tournament bid. Lunardi has the Tigers as one of the four teams on the cusp of getting into his projected field. But having 10 losses already, including a couple of ugly ones early in the season, may be impossible for the selection committee to overlook.
During nonconference play, Clemson lost by 17 points to Massachusetts, which is 4-8 in Atlantic 10 play, and to Minnesota, which is 1-17 since that victory over Clemson. The Tigers get points for improving significantly since then, but those bad defeats cannot be erased entirely.
Forward Jaron Blossomgame has emerged as a star, averaging 20.3 points over the past 11 games. The only game in which he scored fewer than 17 points in that span was an eight-point performance against Virginia Tech, and it is no coincidence that the Tigers lost that game.
It was difficult to choose between Clemson and Pittsburgh for the No. 8 spot in our power rankings. Pitt has a better overall record than Clemson and a much better RPI than the Tigers. But Clemson is ahead of Pitt in the ACC standings and beat the Panthers by 13 points in their only meeting. The fact that Pitt is projected to be in the NCAA tournament field by both Lunardi and Palm, and received a No. 8 seed from Palm, gave Pitt the edge.
Clemson's remaining schedule is not particularly taxing, with four of its final five games against teams with ACC records of 3-9 or worse. That enhances Clemson's chances of getting into the NCAA tournament but does nothing for its current power ranking.
8. Pittsburgh
8 of 15
Overall Record: 17-7
Conference Record: 6-6
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 41
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: 9.5
Best Wins: Notre Dame on the road, Syracuse
Worst Losses: North Carolina State
Pittsburgh looked like a contender for the ACC title five weeks ago. The Panthers were 14-1 overall and ranked No. 20, and their impressive road victory over Notre Dame improved their conference record to 3-0.
Then reality set in.
Louisville rocked the Panthers on the road 59-41 on Jan. 16, handing Pitt its first ACC loss and abruptly ending its 10-game winning streak. Not only did Pitt lose by 18 points, but the Panthers produced their lowest scoring total in five years, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Pitt shot 28.6 percent from the field, went 1-of-11 from three-point range and committed 19 turnovers.
Pittsburgh has lost six of nine games since that Notre Dame win, including an embarrassing 17-point home loss to North Carolina State, a game in which Pitt trailed 44-19 at halftime. Pitt came into Tuesday's game against Wake Forest riding a three-game losing streak that included a 21-point loss to North Carolina on Sunday.
Despite Pitt's recent skid, Palm and Lunardi have the Panthers in their projected NCAA tournament fields. The Panthers will need to beat Wake Forest as well as several of its other remaining opponents to stay there.
The Panthers' solid inclusion in the projected NCAA fields is why Pitt earned the No. 8 slot in the power rankings ahead of Clemson, which has a better conference record than Pitt but does not look like an NCAA tournament team at the moment.
7. Louisville
9 of 15
Overall Record: 19-6
Conference Record: 8-4
Associated Press Ranking: 18
RPI: 28
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: Ineligible
Best Wins: North Carolina, Pittsburgh
Worst Loss: Clemson
Maybe it's just coincidence, but Louisville is 1-2 since its self-imposed sanctions made the Cardinals ineligible for postseason play this season. The recent road losses to Duke and Notre Dame, both of whom are ranked this week, are not embarrassing results, but you wonder whether Louisville has been robbed of that motivational edge that teams need.
The Cardinals had been playing well before the announcement of the sanctions, winning six of their previous seven games, including a victory over North Carolina while losing only to Virginia. Now, they are riding their first two-game losing streak of the season, with a tough stretch of games remaining.
Another concern is the recent play of Damion Lee. When he does not play well offensively, the Cardinals do not play well. Lee has scored in double figures in all but two of his games this season, and Louisville dropped both those games.
In the two games he has played since the sanctions were announced, Lee shot 7-of-28 from the field, and Louisville lost both of them. If anyone should feel an emotional letdown from the sanctions, it would be Lee and Trey Lewis, both of whom transferred to Louisville for their senior seasons with hopes of playing in the NCAA tournaments, according to the Courier-Journal. The news of the sanctions put an end to that hope.
"We were both hurt and devastated as soon as we heard this," said Lewis.
It is noteworthy that Louisville's best win of the season, a 71-65 victory over North Carolina when Lee scored 24 points, was the Cardinals' final game before the announcement of the sanctions.
6. Duke
10 of 15
Overall Record: 19-6
Conference Record: 8-4
Associated Press Ranking: 20
RPI: 18
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: 5
Best Wins: Indiana, Louisville, Virginia
Worst Losses: Utah, Clemson, Syracuse
After its 11-point loss to Miami on Jan. 25, Duke seemed to be dead in the water. It was the Blue Devils' fourth loss in five games, and the Miami defeat was the only one against a team that was ranked at the time. Duke dropped out of the Top 25 on Feb. 1 after being ranked No. 9 just three weeks earlier, and its 4-4 conference record was a major disappointment for the defending national champion. The depth problem and rebounding shortage blamed on the absence of injured forward Amile Jefferson seemed unsolvable.
Duke then suddenly turned it around. The Blue Devils are now riding a four-game winning streak and have won five of their last six heading into Wednesday's game against North Carolina. The road game against the Tar Heels will tell us just how far the Blue Devils have come in the past three weeks, but victories over Louisville and Virginia in the past two games indicate the Blue Devils are back as a major factor in the ACC race.
When the month began, there were questions whether the Blue Devils would even make the NCAA tournament field. Now, both Palm and Lunardi have the Devils plugged into their projected brackets as a No. 5 seed. And Duke is back in the Associated Press Top 25.
Uncertainty remains about when, or whether, Jefferson will return this season and how much difference he will make if he does come back. That has no influence on the power rankings, however. What does matter is the play of Grayson Allen and freshman Brandon Ingram. Each has scored at least 14 points in every game during the recent six-game surge, with Ingram averaging 8.5 rebounds in that stretch and Allen collecting a season-high seven assists twice in that span.
5. Syracuse
11 of 15
Overall Record: 18-8
Conference Record: 8-5
Associated Press Ranking: None
RPI: 37
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: 8.5
Best Wins: Texas A&M, Duke on the road, Notre Dame
Worst Losses: St. John's, Pittsburgh, Clemson
The Orange are one of the hottest teams in the ACC, which is why they occupy such a lofty spot in our power rankings. They have won five in a row and eight of their last nine, including wins over two teams ranked among the Top 25, Duke and Notre Dame. Syracuse's only loss since Jan. 10 was a road defeat against Virginia, and the Orange were in that game until the final seconds.
The Orange's recent surge and their Jan. 19 victory over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium were the deciding factors in placing them ahead of the Blue Devils, who have the better RPI and national ranking.
Five weeks ago, Syracuse was 10-7 overall and 0-4 in the ACC, looking very much like an NIT team. Now, as of Feb. 15, the Orange are 18-8 overall and 8-5 in the conference, just a game out of third place and in good shape for an NCAA tournament berth.
Having Jim Boeheim back from his suspension seems to have made a big difference, as the Orange are 8-2 since his return, losing only to Virginia and North Carolina. Syracuse benefited from the NCAA's modification of Boheim's suspension. It allowed him to serve six games of his nine-game suspension during nonconference play. Had the original ruling remained in place, Boeheim would have returned for the 10th ACC game instead of the fourth.
Syracuse's worst nonconference loss (St. John's) as well as its two worst ACC losses (Clemson and Pittsburgh) came without Boeheim on the bench.
Forward Michael Gbinije has been a consistent offensive force in Syracuse's recent nine-game run, scoring at least 14 points in each of those games. In Syracuse's past two games, he had made 12 of 16 shots overall and eight of 11 three-point attempts.
4. Notre Dame
12 of 15
Overall Record: 18-7
Conference Record: 9-4
Associated Press Ranking: 19
RPI: 19
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: 5
Best Wins: Duke on the road, North Carolina, Louisville
Worst Losses: Monmouth, Alabama
Notre Dame is playing its best basketball of the season, having won three in a row, including two against ranked teams, North Carolina and Louisville. The Fighting Irish are tied for third in the ACC, just a half-game out of second and within striking distance of first-place North Carolina.
The nonconference losses to Monmouth, Alabama and Indiana do not seem as bad now as they did then, and the good wins are starting to pile up. Winning at Duke's Cameron Indoor Stadium is no easy task, and knocking off North Carolina at any venue is laudable.
Guard Demetrius Jackson averaged 21 points during the Irish's three-game winning streak, and he played 40 minutes in all three. He had 27 points in the victory over Louisville on Saturday, when Notre Dame overcame an 11-point deficit with 15 minutes remaining.
All five Notre Dame starters are averaging 11.6 points or better, so coach Mike Brey has plenty of options when the offense stalls.
3. Miami
13 of 15
Overall Record: 20-4
Conference Record: 9-3
Associated Press Ranking: 11
RPI: 9
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: 2.5
Best Wins: Duke, Notre Dame
Worst Losses: Northeastern, North Carolina State
Miami does not get much publicity, but the Hurricanes are still in the running for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. It would require some losses by other teams and a strong finish by Miami, but the possibility exists. That's because the Hurricanes are 7-1 against top-50 RPI teams, the best such record in the country.
The Hurricanes have won four in a row overall and seven of their last eight, which leaves them just one game behind first-place North Carolina. Miami squeaked by with two-point victories over Florida State and Pittsburgh in its last two games, so the Hurricanes are not crushing everyone in sight at the moment. But the bottom line is they won those games.
That early-season loss to Northeastern led to some doubts about Miami, but more recent wins over Duke and Notre Dame demonstrated this team's quality.
The Hurricanes' conference schedule is back-loaded, with four of their final five games against teams that are ranked this week. Miami should have the maturity to handle it, with two fifth-year players, three fourth-year players and no freshmen among its top seven scorers.
2. North Carolina
14 of 15
Overall Record: 21-4
Conference Record: 10-2
Associated Press Ranking: 5
RPI: 8
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: 2
Best Wins: Maryland, Syracuse on the road
Worst Loss: Northern Iowa
North Carolina's numbers are impressive but a bit deceiving. Being ranked No. 5 in this week's Associated Press poll and standing alone atop the Atlantic Coast Conference standings with a 10-2 mark suggest the Tar Heels should be the unquestioned choice for the No. 1 spot in the ACC power rankings.
Digging a little deeper into the numbers indicates North Carolina may not be as dominant as its record implies. The questions start when you look at the Tar Heels' good wins, because they don't have many. North Carolina's only victory over a team that is currently ranked came at home against Maryland way back on Dec. 2.
The Tar Heels have managed to play just two ACC games against teams that are ranked among the Associated Press Top 25 at this moment, and they lost both of them, to Notre Dame and Louisville. North Carolina's 3-3 record against top-50 RPI teams is the worst of any team ranked among this week's Top 18.
Recently, the Tar Heels have been less than overwhelming. Although they dominated Pittsburgh in their most recent game, the three games before that consisted of losses to Louisville and Notre Dame and a three-point victory over Boston College, which is 0-12 in the conference but held an eight-point lead over North Carolina with less than eight minutes left.
North Carolina has yet to play Miami, Virginia or Duke, and Wednesday's game against the Blue Devils starts a six-game run to finish the regular season in which the Tar Heels face four teams currently ranked in the Top 25.
None of this is to suggest that North Carolina is anything other than a quality team. The Tar Heels' frontcourt may be the best in the country, and they have Final Four talent. There is a reason Lunardi has them as a No. 1 seed in his projected NCAA tournament field. But there is also a reason Palm only gives them a No. 3 seed. Their results, especially recently, just don't measure up, although the Tar Heels are capable of rectifying that over the next few weeks.
1. Virginia
15 of 15
Overall Record: 21-5
Conference Record: 10-4
Associated Press Ranking: 7
RPI: 5
Average Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding: 2
Best Wins: West Virginia, Villanova, Miami, Notre Dame, Louisville on the road
Worst Losses: Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Conflicting data makes ranking Virginia a chore.
Its wins over West Virginia by 16 points, over Villanova by 11 points, over Notre Dame by 11 points, over Miami by eight points and over Louisville on the road by 14 points make the Cavaliers look like favorites to win the national championship.
However, that five-day stretch in early January, when the Cavaliers lost back-to-back games to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, cause you to rethink your assessment. Even though those games were on the road, they were bad losses.
Two other factors further complicate the evaluation of Virginia. First, it remains two games behind first-place North Carolina in the loss column in the ACC standings and is one game in back of Miami in the loss column. For practical purposes, Virginia is in third place.
However, that is countered by the fact that the Cavaliers are playing the best basketball in the ACC at the moment. They have won eight of their last nine games, beating Louisville by 16 points on the road and Pittsburgh by 14 points on the road in that stretch. Virginia's only loss since Jan. 19 came at Duke when Grayson Allen threw in an off-balance shot at the buzzer to hand the Cavaliers a one-point defeat. Granted, that loss may have simply evened the luck ledger for Virginia, which posted a one-point win over Wake Forest when Darius Thompson banked in a three-pointer at the buzzer.
Observations that Virginia may be the most efficient team in the country, with its low turnover count, high field-goal percentage and lauded pack-line defense, are worth noting. But the bottom line is this: Nobody in the conference is playing better than Virginia at the moment, and those five impressive victories outweigh those two ugly losses that occurred one month ago.
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