Can Manchester United Risk Not Hiring Jose Mourinho?
Three things are guaranteed with Jose Mourinho as your manager: attention, trophies and a train-wreck finale.
Attention is a double-edged sword. Clubs love employing box-office attractions, as they sell their team effortlessly and bring the world's eyes to whatever stadium. The downside of a lightning-rod manager is that they become the centre of attention. In Mourinho's case, given his combative temperament, this trait frequently backfires.
Depending on a club's ambitions, managers are not always tasked with winning trophies, but Mourinho's level (arguably football's best) makes silverware a prerequisite. In 15 years of management, the Portuguese has won 18 major trophies in four countries. His tactics are often labelled as pragmatic, but if the point of sports is winning, one would be hard-pressed finding a more accomplished resume.
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Mourinho's style is successful, but it's also combative, demanding and stressful. Combined with the spectacle surrounding him, there is a short clock on his tenures. His second spell with Chelsea is an optimal example.
What kept Mourinho afloat was his ability to win football matches. While in west London, he won two trophies—including the 2014/15 Premier League—but he was undone by boardroom incompetence and his own personality.
Unable to sustain longevity at Stamford Bridge, despite clamouring from Chelsea supporters, Mourinho is searching for another club.
According to the Daily Mail's Sam Cunningham, Manchester United are heavy favourites to employ the Portuguese next; the report suggests Mourinho informed close friends that "he will take over at Manchester United" this summer.
Transitioning from Louis van Gaal to Mourinho could prove messy for the Red Devils. The Dutchman—dealing with injury, new signings, misfiring strikers and a much-improved mid-table class—has his club in fifth. Lambasted for uninspired football, there is every possibility that the former Netherlands head coach (over the Premier League's last 13 matches) will close a six-point gap and obtain Champions League qualification.
If UCL football is secured, does Manchester United executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward have the leverage to sack Van Gaal with a year remaining on his contract? One would think not, but Mourinho's shadow looms large. The switch becomes effortless in theory, though, if Van Gaal fails to secure a top-four position.
Despite fully understanding the thunderstorm that follows the Portuguese, United would be foolish to reject the 53-year-old. Manchester City have hired Pep Guardiola, Liverpool should improve under Jurgen Klopp, Arsene Wenger's Arsenal are an evergreen contender and Chelsea are certain to spend heavily with a name-brand manager.
"So, will Jose Mourinho sell Juan Mata again? This and many more in the cinemas this summer.
— JJ. Omojuwa (@Omojuwa) February 10, 2016"
Manchester United cannot enter 2016/17 with a lame-duck manager; nor can they, in good conscience, give Van Gaal an extension if Mourinho is ready and willing.
Their issue, however, is the inescapable, unavoidable reality feeling that Mourinho will implode.
Will you win a domestic cup? Almost certainly.
Will you win the Premier League? Probably.
Will you come close in Europe? Safe bet.
Will you split by "mutual consent" within four seasons? 100 percent.
If conflicted, the first three questions should always trump the last. Manchester United cannot afford to stand still, even at the expense of Van Gaal. They need a fresh manager with new ideas and tangible passion. Mourinho is that man. It just so happens the footballing world knows his expected trajectory—and it's not exactly pretty.
Asking whether Mourinho is worth the risk to Manchester United is the wrong question; the real question has always been: "Could Manchester United risk not taking Mourinho?"
Only four clubs around the world can claim their club is a bigger brand than Mourinho: Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Manchester United.
No matter what transpires, Mourinho cannot eviscerate the reputation of an established, global entity. He is no threat to United. Once the inevitable moment arrives when his presence becomes more harmful than helpful, cutting bait will not effect much. What does have the capability of inflicting infinitely more damage than an annoyed dressing room, fanbase or boardroom, is not hiring Mourinho at all.
The Portuguese has the power to mold, craft and unleash a vision of success, of which few managers in football's history are capable. As witnessed during his first Chelsea run, the spine of Petr Cech, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba (all of whom Mourinho sculpted into their best representation) were serial winners—even after their original designer left west London.
Manchester United are in the midst of a rebuilding phase. David Moyes and Van Gaal have been unable to form a winning side—even after spending upwards of £325 million. Sir Alex Ferguson was the last United manager to win a meaningful trophy, and Mourinho is cut from a similar, visionary cloth.
Hiring the 53-year-old as one's manager should come with the expectation of short-term success with a bitter ending; history does not lie in that regard. What should pique United's interest, though, is just because Mourinho crashes, it doesn't mean what he builds does.
If constructing United's next generation has proved problematic—bring in an expert architect. Employ Mourinho long enough to dismantle past failures and assemble a robust, domineering model (then hope he doesn't turn arsonist).
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
