College Basketball Freshmen Poised to Have Breakout Sophomore Seasons
There's always next season.
Unless you're a freshman playing for an elite college basketball team. Then it becomes like 50/50.
Sure, the one-and-doners are the cream of the talent crop, but they're not the only ones in the equation. Sometimes, for several reasons, players come back for another season.
These are the freshmen you should remember. Not for draft day, but for the next college basketball season, when they could really shine as sophomores.
Players are ranked based on this season's productivity and next season's potential. No freshman listed in the current DraftExpress 2016 NBA mock draft appears here.
All draft and statistical information current as of Feb. 11. Stats provided by ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
9. PJ Dozier, Guard, South Carolina
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There's no nice way to put this: If PJ Dozier doesn't have a breakout sophomore season, he could be one of the larger disappointments of recent South Carolina basketball.
The Columbia, S.C., native was widely hailed as an immediate contributor and potential star when he signed with the hometown Gamecocks.
It hasn't panned out thus far.
The 6'7" guard has only scored in double figures twice in 12 games in the new year, bringing his average down to 7.5 points per game. His effective field-goal percentage, according to College Basketball Reference, is an anemic 41.5 percent, barely above the SEC average of 38 percent.
Head coach Frank Martin said Dozier is a bit of an enigma—and is not assertive enough.
“I’ve got to figure him out as a player," Martin told David Caraviello of the Post and Courier newspaper. "That’s the biggest adjustment anyone has to make. I’ve got to figure out what he’s real good at, and he’s got to figure out that he’s got to be a little more aggressive.”
8. Allonzo Trier, Guard, Arizona
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It hasn't been the kind of season Arizona fans have gotten used to lately. At least they can take solace in a bright future, thanks in part to Allonzo Trier.
The Wildcats' third-leading scorer (14.3 points per game), Trier just returned from a seven-game absence caused by a broken hand—just another in a line of tough Wildcat injuries during this campaign. It unquestionably was a cold bucket of water on a season that was really starting to heat up.
In his first game back, Trier managed just seven points before fouling out in 16 minutes, but his deadly shooting stroke was still in evidence and will come all the way back sooner or later. Opponents probably hope it's much later. Like, next season maybe.
7. Tyler Davis, Center, Texas A&M
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Tyler Davis has been a key cog in one of this season's most surprising teams.
The 6'10" Davis leads the entire SEC in true shooting with a 66.1 percentage and has a 25.2 player efficiency rating, according to College Basketball Reference.
The Aggies have faltered lately, dropping three straight and four of five to drop down to No. 15 in the national poll.
Still, Texas A&M has overachieved and can claim wins over teams such as Iowa State, Baylor and Gonzaga. If they're going to get back on the winning path, they'll do it with the help of their third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder in Davis. He's an important piece both for now and the future in College Station.
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6. Jalen Brunson, Guard, Villanova
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As you may be aware, Villanova is having a pretty good season.
Brunson's not the most statistically accomplished player on the team, but he himself may have inadvertently described his value to the team in speaking with John P. Borneman of the Chicago Tribune:
"The biggest adjustment is just playing with great players all around," Brunson said. "You don't really have a center. You just have basketball players. Everyone's a player. Everyone tries to do the same thing."
Of course, his numbers also are pretty solid, with 10.3 points, 2.8 assists to 1.8 turnovers and 2.0 rebounds a game. Not bad for 25 minutes of average playing time.
Starting point guard Ryan Arcidiacono is a senior, opening up a position of sorts next season. Brunson will probably stay and continue his evolution.
5. Tyler Dorsey, Forward, Oregon
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Even with his current four-game slump, Tyler Dorsey is still the third-leading scorer on the No. 11 Ducks with 13 points per game.
The slump isn't good, though. Over the past four, he's shooting 9-of-32 total from the floor for a percentage of 28.1 percent. That's not going to get it done.
Still, his healthy 2.6 win shares demonstrate what he has meant to the Ducks. They also vocalized that themselves recently to Tyson Alger of the Oregonian:
"Teams are obviously scouting and watching more film on him and stuff," sophomore guard Casey Benson said. "He's going to keep doing what he's doing. He's had a big year for us and we need him every game."
4. JaQuan Lyle, Guard, Ohio State
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JaQuan Lyle is slowly coming on.
There hasn't been much for hoops fans to cheer about in Columbus this season, what with this young Buckeyes team 15-10 overall and 7-5 in the Big Ten, which has landed them in eighth place.
The 6'5" point guard was named the starter for the first game and has been consistently inconsistent ever since. But he has generally improved since the calendar flipped. In the 14 games of 2015, Lyle averaged 8.8 points, 4.9 assists and three turnovers.
In the 11 games this year, those averages are 11.7 points, 3.8 helpers and 2.4 turnovers. His two best games of the season—a triple-double against Rutgers and a season-high 29 points at Indiana—also came in 2016.
The assists and turnovers are likely both down because he was pulled out of the starting lineup after a stinker at Purdue and stayed there for four games in January and early February.
Lyle ultimately played well enough to re-enter the starting lineup, and he capitalized with a solid 16-point, six-rebound effort in a win Tuesday over Northwestern. It helped show Lyle's knack for playing off the ball, where he can grab boards, be more aggressive and freelance against defenders.
There's more learning to do, but Lyle should be a seasoned floor general and stat-sheet stuffer for the Buckeyes next season.
3. Thomas Bryant, Center, Indiana
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Thomas Bryant has been huge for Indiana, helping to pick up a lot of the slack resulting from James Blackmon's earlier season-ending injury.
All he does outside of his 12.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game is lead the Big Ten in two-point field-goal percentage with 74.5, sit fifth in offensive rebounding percentage with 11.7, sixth in player efficiency rating with 26.6 and eighth with a 5.1 block percentage.
He might make a run for the pros. If he doesn't, this could be his team next year.
2. Caleb Swanigan, Forward, Purdue
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A power forward with shooting range, Caleb Swanigan is an important piece of Purdue's formula on both ends of the floor. Alongside senior AJ Hammons, Swanigan forms a fierce one-two punch in the front court.
It's true on offense, where his 9.8 points per game are a fairly consistent, if not eye-popping, contribution.
And it's true on defense, a hallmark of the Boilermaker approach, as evidenced by their No. 9 ranking in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rating. The versatile and lane-clogging Swanigan tops the Big Ten leaderboard in rebounds with 8.8 per game and sits fourth in defensive rating.
When Hammons moves on after this season, this will be Swanigan's frontcourt. He should blossom even further next in 2016-17.
1. Malik Beasley, Guard, Florida State
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While fellow FSU freshman Dwayne Bacon soaks up the NBA hype, Malik Beasley has quietly outperformed not only Bacon but every one of his teammates. And a lot of the rest of the ACC besides.
The numbers are clear. Beasley is third in the conference standings in effective field-goal percentage with 58.9 and fifth in both scoring average (17.3) and true-shooting percentage (63.1). Only NBA locks Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray score more than Beasley among the nation's top freshmen.
On Thursday against tough-defending Syracuse, Beasley scored 14 points to tie Jahlil Okafor for the second-longest double-digit scoring streak ever among ACC freshmen, according to ESPN Stats and Info.
According to analyst Mike Schmitz of The Vertical, Beasley is an efficient player and a rising prospect:
"Beasley does a lot of damage in the open court. ...by using his speed to sprint to the rim and his explosiveness to catch lobs or hammer home tomahawk dunks. Although not the most polished ball handler, Beasley is more than capable of grabbing a rebound and getting to the front of the rim himself. ...As a shooter Beasley is very sound mechanically, showing outstanding shot preparation before the catch, tremendous balance, quick elevation as he goes into his motion. ...Beasley can shoot off the hop or after planting one foot after another, an important skill for shooting on the move and under duress.
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At this rate, he might not stay in Tallahassee. Seminole fans should hope he does.
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