Big Ten Football: Early Odds for Each Team to Make the 2016-17 Playoff
The 2015 college football season is in the books and national signing day has came and went, meaning it's officially time to start looking ahead toward the 2016 season.
For the Big Ten, it should be unlike any other in recent memory, with the profile of the conference having only grown with its recent string of success on the field and big-name hirings of head coaches off of it.
Having made the playoff in each of the past two seasons, first with Ohio State and then Michigan State, doing so has not only become the goal, but the expectation in the 14-team league. The reality, however, is that not all teams have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff, particularly in the tougher of the Big Ten's two divisions—the East.
But if ever there was a time for optimism in college football, it'd be right now. With that in mind, let's take a look at my odds for each Big Ten team to make the 2016 College Football Playoff.
Purdue: 1000/1
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If there's a Big Ten team whose playoff odds wouldn't even be listed, Purdue would certainly qualify as a strong candidate. Nevertheless, if the Boilermakers were indeed listed with playoff odds, it'd only be so as the longest of long shots.
Coming off of a 2-10 season in Darrell Hazell's third year in West Lafayette, Purdue doesn't appear poised to get any better this upcoming season, having added just the nation's No. 76 recruiting class for 2016 to its roster. Any playoff hopes the Boilermakers could possibly possess would stem from playing in the lesser of the two Big Ten divisions—and even then, Las Vegas would have to list them at 1000/1 odds to get any sort of action.
Given the unpredictability of college football, perhaps those odds would make it worth a shot. Just don't count on getting any sort of return on your investment.
Rutgers: 900/1
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The good news for Rutgers is that in bringing in Chris Ash, the Scarlet Knights now find themselves with a head coach who was arguably college football's top defensive coordinator for each of the past two seasons, with knowledge of the conference and a national championship ring on his resume.
The bad news is that Rutgers still plays in the Big Ten East, which would mean needing to beat at least two of Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State—and running the table otherwise—to have a realistic shot at making the playoff.
Even at odds that would pay out $900 for every dollar wagered, betting on the Scarlet Knights simply isn't worth the cost—at least not in 2016. Ash has the ability to one day make the Rutgers a threat in one of college football's most competitive conferences, but doing so in just one short season is simply unrealistic.
Maryland: 900/1
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Every reason that you shouldn't wager on Rutgers is the same reason why betting on Maryland simply isn't worth the potential long-shot payoff.
While new head coach D.J. Durkin has an impressive resume and knowledge of the conference as well, he faces an uphill climb taking over a 3-9 team in one of the sport's most difficult divisions. It's hard to envision any scenario where the Terrapins win the Big Ten East, which is what they'd need to do to even have a shot at crashing next season's playoff.
With more talent on their roster stemming from fertile recruiting ground, if you were going to bet on Rutgers or Maryland, it's the Terrapins who are the "safer" pick. But neither is a true dark-horse candidate, let alone legitimate candidate, to find themselves in college football's Final Four next winter and thus isn't worth betting on, regardless of what the odds are.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Indiana: 800/1
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Not much of a safer pick than Rutgers or Maryland—the Hoosiers also play in the Big Ten East—Indiana doesn't have any real shot at making the 2016 playoff, but at least has consistency on its side. Head coach Kevin Wilson is entering his sixth season in Bloomington and coming off his best, a 6-7 campaign that ended with a controversial loss to Duke in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.
But while the Hoosiers as a program appear to be headed in the right direction, 2016 will be no walk in the park as Wilson replaces his star quarterback, Nate Sudfeld and leading rusher, Jordan Howard, from last year's team. In reality, 2016 will likely be a step back for Indiana, and it will be reflected when it comes to any odds that are made available for its playoff potential.
Illinois: 700/1
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Like the teams listed before it, Illinois doesn't have a lot going for it when it comes to its playoff chances. Coming off of a 5-7 season under head coach Bill Cubit, the Fighting Illini simply have a long way to go before they can be considered a viable playoff candidate.
What Illinois does have working in its favor, however, is playing in the Big Ten West—the weaker of the two conference divisions. With senior quarterback Wes Lunt behind center, the Illini could be considered a sleeper team in 2016, much like Iowa was in 2015.
But with a lack of recent success, it's hard to believe that Illinois' playoff odds would rise to the point that anyone would consider placing a serious bet on Cubit's second season in Champaign resulting in a playoff berth. Nevertheless, any odds in the triple digits might be worth a small wager for the big-time payoff potential.
Northwestern: 200/1
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The first serious dark-horse candidate in the Big Ten, Northwestern is coming off of a 10-2 regular season, which ultimately resulted in a blowout 45-6 loss to Tennessee in the Outback Bowl. But returning quarterback Clayton Thorson and running back Justin Jackson, the Wildcats will still possess many of the key pieces that put them two wins away from playing in the Big Ten title game.
If Northwestern can somehow navigate the conference landscape and make it to Indianapolis with one or no losses on its resume, a spot in the College Football Playoff could very well be on the line in a potential Big Ten title game berth. But given the outcome of their bowl game, the Wildcats clearly have a long way to go before competing with the best of the Big Ten, which is what they would find themselves facing in the Circle City.
As would be reflected in their odds, Northwestern remains an underdog when it comes to crashing the College Football Playoff. But with their experienced players at key positions returning to a manageable division, the Wildcats could find themselves as one of the league's better value bets by midseason.
Minnesota: 150/1
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Coming off of a 5-7 regular season in 2015, one would think that Minnesota's playoff odds would actually be closer to 1,000/1 than they'd be to 100/1. But the Golden Gophers caught some bad breaks last season and should find themselves facing considerably less turmoil with head coach Tracy Claeys at the helm following the midseason departure of Jerry Kill.
With Mitch Leidner returning at quarterback, Minnesota will be experienced on offense, with Claey's focus on defense potentially giving the Golden Gophers the ability to stay in every game. Last year, Minnesota played Ohio State tough and nearly knocked off Michigan in a season that ultimately resulted in a win over Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl.
This year, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Gophers stay in contention in the Big Ten West until the very end. Having what it takes to crash the playoff, however, is still unlikely, but Minnesota has the potential to be the sort of outside-the-box type of pick to keep an eye on.
Nebraska: 50/1
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While its 5-7 regular season may not have shown it, Nebraska's potential under new head coach Mike Riley found itself on full display in the Cornhuskers' 37-29 win over UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl. Of all the teams in college football in 2015, Nebraska may have been the unluckiest, which resulted in a losing record not truly being indicative of how good the Huskers could have been.
With its win over the Bruins, however, Nebraska will likely be a trendy pick to win the Big Ten West, especially as pundits talk themselves out of Iowa repeating. If the Cornhuskers can catch some better breaks, a divisional championship certainly isn't out of the question, which could land them in Indianapolis playing for the right to take part in the playoff.
Ultimately, the Huskers still have plenty to prove and are hardly the favorites to win their division, let alone their conference, quite yet. But look for oddsmakers to do their best to prevent bettors on getting too much value on Nebraska, which could be reflected in lower-than-expected playoff odds at the start of the season.
Penn State: 40/1
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A team whose name likely carries more value than its on-field product at this point, Penn State has its work cut out for itself when it comes to crashing the playoff in 2016. Most notably, third-year head coach James Franklin will be breaking in a first-year, yet-to-be-named quarterback following the departure of three-year starter Christian Hackenberg.
Playing in the vaunted Big Ten East, the Nittany Lions could likely only afford one loss to the three teams who represent their division's top programs at the moment: Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan if they were going to have any realistic shot at winning their division and making the playoff. That's a tall task, especially given all that Penn State will be replacing in 2016.
But with star running back Saquon Barkley returning to Happy Valley for his sophomore season and many believing Hackenberg wasn't a great fit in Franklin's offense anyways, oddsmakers can't make Penn State's playoff odds too high, in fear of potentially having to pay out on too good of a value bet. Nevertheless, the Nittany Lions remain a playoff long shot, predominantly due to the loaded division that they play in.
Wisconsin: 15/1
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Arguably the best value bet that you'll find in the Big Ten, Wisconsin is coming off of a sneakily impressive 10-3 season under first-year head coach Paul Chryst, which ultimately resulted in a win over Southern California in the Holiday Bowl.
With a lopsided defeat at the hands of Alabama to start the season, the Badgers flew under the radar for much of 2015 and never truly entered the playoff discussion.
But with running back Corey Clement returning and Bart Houston poised to step into the starting spot vacated by Joel Stave, Wisconsin serves as the most viable threat to Iowa when it comes to the Big Ten West. That would give the Badgers an easier path to Indianapolis than any of the favorites in the East, all three of which Wisconsin could very well beat on a neutral field.
If you're going to get in on a realistic Big Ten playoff pick based on value, this is the one I recommend. By midseason, it would hardly be a shock to see the Badgers overtake the Hawkeyes as division favorites—potentially giving them an inside track to the College Football Playoff.
Iowa: 14/1
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While Wisconsin is my favorite pick of the Big Ten West to potentially make the playoff, as Ric Flair says, to be the man, you have to beat the man.
Right now on that side of division, "the man" is Iowa, which found itself one win away in the Big Ten title game from cashing in on its long-shot odds to make last season's College Football Playoff.
Returning starting quarterback C.J. Beathard, Thorpe Award winner Desmond King and potential medical redshirt candidate Drew Ott, the Hawkeyes will be favored to once again win the West and potentially find themselves playing with a playoff spot on the line in Indianapolis in December. That means that oddsmakers can't offer too high of a payout, especially with Iowa's path in the West being significantly easier than that of any team in the East.
But while they may still be the favorites, the Hawkeyes still have plenty to prove in 2016. They may have been a year ahead of schedule in last year's run—or could ultimately pan out as just a one-year wonder.
Michigan State: 10/1
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The reigning Big Ten champion and conference title winners in two of the last three years, Michigan State has arguably been the most consistent program in the league since 2013.
But much of what the Spartans have accomplished in the better part of the last half-decade has come with Connor Cook behind a center, a luxury Mark Dantonio's program will no longer be able to enjoy in 2016.
Add in the departures of left tackle Jack Conklin, center Jack Allen wide receiver Aaron Burbridge and defensive end Shilique Calhoun and the holes left in the Michigan State starting lineup appear almost too gaping to overcome. Still, Dantonio has built a reputation as one of the sport's top talent developers, which should only become easier now that he's routinely recruiting stronger talent to East Lansing.
With odds listed in the double digits, Michigan State may not be a bad value bet to place when it comes to the Spartans making their second consecutive playoff. They'll have plenty to overcome—which is just the way Dantonio prefers to run his program.
Michigan: 5/1
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What will likely be a hot playoff pick entering the second year of Jim Harbaugh, Michigan's odds will likely stay in the single digits until the start of the season. After a 10-3 season in 2015, Harbaugh's team is only expected to improve in the coming year, which should keep them in playoff contention until the end of the season.
But with the eligibility of quarterback Jake Rudock having expired, the Wolverines aren't without question marks of their own either, and it's worth noting that thus far, Harbaugh is 0-2 against Michigan State and Ohio State—his program's chief rivals. Both of those games will be played on the road for Michigan in 2016 as well, only adding a degree of difficulty to its potential playoff hopes.
Ultimately, however, the Wolverines season will likely come down to their regular-season finale, a road date against the Buckeyes in Columbus. The winner of that game could very well advance to Indianapolis, with a right to play in the playoff on the line the Big Ten title game.
Does Michigan have what it takes to do just that in the coming year? It's too early to tell. But that won't stop bettors from placing their faith—and theoretically, money—in Harbaugh's hands.
Ohio State: 3/1
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After a 10-0 start to its 2015 campaign, Ohio State appeared well on its way to a second straight playoff appearance, where the Buckeyes would have a chance to defend their national championship.
But a last-second loss to Michigan State in the second-to-last week of the regular season left Ohio State on the outside looking in come championship weekend and ultimately the College Football Playoff. Still, the Buckeyes finished their year strong, with dominating wins over rival Michigan and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
Despite returning just three starters on each side of the ball in 2016, Ohio State is still the team in the Big Ten best equipped to handle a run to the playoffs. Most importantly, quarterback J.T. Barrett finds himself the Buckeyes' undisputed starter, after bouncing in and out of the lineup with Cardale Jones still in Columbus a season ago.
With Barrett at the helm and Urban Meyer on the sideline, the Buckeyes appear poised to make a potential playoff run. It'll have to avenge their loss to the Spartans—this time in East Lansing—and extend Meyer's winning streak over Michigan to five—not to mention battle Oklahoma in Norman in September—but Ohio State remains the best bet to make the playoff out of the Big Ten in 2016—and for good reason.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
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