The Biggest Trap Game for Each AP Top 25 Team in College Basketball

There are less than four weeks left in the 2015-16 college basketball regular season, which means every game left on the schedule is huge when it comes to building momentum for the postseason. In theory, at least.

Try as they might, coaches and players sometimes overlook certain opponents whom they might consider less imposing than the big names left on the schedule. When this happens, the top teams end up falling into a trap they should have seen coming, resulting in either a loss or a much-harder-than-expected victory.

Just ask Iowa State and Providence, both of which lost to unranked opponents on the road on Wednesday, while SMU fell at home to Tulsa.

For the purposes of this story, we're considering it a trap game if the opponent is unranked and has a worse conference record. Every team currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 has at least one of these games left before the regular season ends—a game that could be a momentum- and confidence-killer.

No. 25 Wichita State

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Feb. 15 vs. New Mexico State

A loss last weekend at Illinois State ended Wichita State's hopes of going unbeaten in the Missouri Valley Conference, but at 12-1 it has a three-game lead on the field and would need to collapse down the stretch not to win the regular-season title. Ideally, the Shockers will want to go 17-1 in the league to help their NCAA tournament seed.

There aren't any games left on the schedule that can help their postseason standing but plenty that can hurt it. That includes a rescheduled clash against New Mexico State that was originally set for Dec. 28 but was postponed because inclement weather prevented NMSU from making the trip.

NMSU features one of the best mid-major players in the country in 6'9" sophomore forward Pascal Siakam, who averages 21.5 points and 11.8 rebounds. Wichita should have a great scouting report on him and the Aggies, but with a league game two days earlier, there's not as much time to practice for this matchup as there was in December.

No. 24 Texas

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Feb. 22 at Kansas State

Texas has been quite competitive with the top teams in the Big 12 this season, a testament to what coach Shaka Smart has accomplished in his first season in Austin. The Longhorns are 3-2 against ranked league foes, with five more such matchups left on the schedule.

Those aren't the games Texas has had issue with in the conference, instead it's been the ones against teams below it in the standings that have been more troublesome. It's lost at TCU and Texas Tech, which are a combined 6-16 in league play.

The next of those such teams the Longhorns will face is Kansas State, which they'll visit two days after hosting Baylor and five days before hosting Oklahoma. K-State is 3-8 in the conference but knocked off Oklahoma at home last weekend.

No. 23 USC

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Friday at Arizona State

USC makes its second appearance in the rankings this season after having not been ranked since 2008. The last time the Trojans jumped into the Top 25, they promptly lost two straight.

The first was to red-hot Oregon, which is leading the Pac-12, then they fell to an Oregon State team that's been good at catching teams on off nights. Arizona State is in a similar boat, though at 3-8 in the league, it's done so less often and is in second-to-last place.

The Trojans beat ASU by 10 at home last month but nearly squandered a 17-point lead in the process. With a trip to Arizona coming two days after their visit to Tempe, they can ill afford to slip in this one.

No. 22 Kentucky

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Feb. 23 vs. Alabama

Kentucky sits in a three-way tie for first in the SEC with less than a month left in the regular season, but four of the next six games are on the road. The Wildcats' three league losses have been away from Rupp Arena, where they have won 34 straight games.

The road hurdles will continue with upcoming games at co-leader South Carolina and fourth-place Texas A&M in the next two weeks, while the home matchups in that span aren't much to worry about. Or are they?

Alabama just beat A&M on Wednesday, and it also has a victory over South Carolina. The Crimson Tide lost by 16 at home against Kentucky last month, but they've won four of five and might be moving closer to the tournament bubble. Beating the Wildcats on the road would only further that drive toward their first NCAA bid since 2012.

No. 21 Baylor

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Feb. 27 at TCU

If you based it off the RPI, Baylor has mostly beaten the teams it was supposed to while its losses have come to the expected opponents. The Bears were 28th in the RPI before Wednesday's win at Kansas State, a victory that made them 16-0 against lower-rated teams and 1-6 against higher-rated foes.

There are only two games left against lower-rated opponents, which means Baylor's remaining schedule is going to be daunting. It will also be one that lends itself for overlooking a less rated team, especially when they come in between much-bigger matchups.

Baylor hosts Kansas on Feb. 23 and visits Oklahoma on March 1—games that will draw most of its attention. TCU will look to exploit this potential oversight.

No. 20 Providence

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March 5 at St. John's

Providence is at risk of having a once-promising season come crashing down, with Wednesday's loss at Marquette its third straight and fourth in the last five. The Friars are 6-6 in the Big East and probably falling out of the rankings. Any hope of contending for the league title is out of the question.

The rest of the regular season should get spent on fixing what's wrong and building momentum for the conference tournament and the NCAA tourney. Staying out of the league's bottom four spots is also a goal, as that would keep Providence from having to play on the first day of the Big East tourney.

Two of the Friars' remaining games are against teams below them in the standings, including the regular-season finale at last-place St. John's. The Red Storm have lost 15 straight, and only six of those games have been relatively close, just the kind of team a reeling club like Providence could slip against.

No. 19 Dayton

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Feb. 23 at Saint Louis

At 20-3 overall and atop the Atlantic 10, Dayton isn't going to be sweating Selection Sunday like last season when it was an at-large qualifier forced to play in the First Four. At this point the Flyers should be positioning themselves for a high seed—something that hanging on to first place in the league will help with.

They also have to make sure not to have another hiccup like the one that resulted in their only A-10 loss, 61-57 at LaSalle on Jan. 9. Since that game, the Flyers have won eight in a row, while the Explorers have dropped nine straight and are last in the league with a 1-10 mark.

Dayton's remaining schedule is loaded with tough opponents, with three coming against the trio of teams right behind it in the standings. There's also the sneaky trip to a Saint Louis team that's 3-8 in the conference but has plucked off George Washington and Davidson at home.

No. 18 Purdue

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March 1 at Nebraska

Purdue has split its six Big Ten road games to this point, with understandable losses at Top 10 schools Iowa and Maryland, but also a sloppy 14-point setback at Illinois in mid-January, when it allowed 54.2 percent shooting. The Boilermakers also narrowly beat last-place Minnesota on the road two weeks ago, nearly blowing an 11-point second-half lead.

That result came a few days after falling at Iowa, with Purdue noticeably drained from that game and not giving the Golden Gophers their full attention. The same is possible when it visits Nebraska for its final road game of the season, just three days after it will have hosted Maryland.

No. 17 Arizona

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Feb. 24 at Colorado

Arizona has won the last two Pac-12 regular-season titles, but at 7-4 it sits two games behind Oregon and has lost to the Ducks already. The Wildcats play five of their last seven at home, including the next three before their final road trip to the league's Mountain schools.

The big showdown on that trip will be Feb. 27 at Utah, though three days earlier the game against Colorado can't be overlooked. It comes after a week off, which will make sure the Wildcats are rested, but it also makes it possible for complacency to set in.

Arizona has won six in a row over the Buffaloes, including the last two in Boulder, but Colorado has shown it's tough at home with a 12-1 mark, including a win over Oregon.

No. 16 SMU

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Feb. 28 vs. Tulane

SMU isn't eligible for the postseason, but it still had goals to strive for. The chance at a perfect record went by the wayside in January, and now a American Athletic Conference title is in doubt after the Mustangs lost at home Wednesday to Tulsa.

That was their third loss in the last five games—a skid that has brought it back to the field in the league race. The Mustangs hold a half-game lead over Temple, and three other teams are just a game behind in the standings.

SMU has two games left against Connecticut, including its home finale on March 3. Right before that is a visit from Tulane, which, at 2-10, is tied for last in the conference and would like nothing more than to have an impact on who wins the league title.

No. 15 Texas A&M

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March 1 vs. Auburn

Wednesday's loss at Alabama dropped Texas A&M to 3-3 on the road in conference and 7-4 overall in league play—a game back of three teams for the SEC lead. The Aggies' struggles on the road have existed all season long, which should make them hyper-aware of further pitfalls when not playing in College Station.

Yet a two-game road trip late in the season is looking far more difficult than it should be, as A&M is set to play at Missouri and Auburn during a four-day span. Those teams are a combined 4-18 in league play, and Auburn has looked particularly horrid of late with six straight losses, including a 29-point setback at Tennessee on Tuesday.

No. 14 Iowa State

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Feb. 20 vs. TCU

Forward Jameel McKay missed his second straight game on Wednesday because of a suspension, and his absence was noticeable in a 85-82 loss at Texas Tech. That was Iowa State's third setback in its last four games, dropping it into sixth place in the Big 12.

McKay's return, which could be as soon as Saturday, will help boost the Cyclones' lineup. However, they fell at Texas A&M and at home to West Virginia with him available, so there's more to this team's woes than one missing player.

At this point, Iowa State is susceptible to a loss every time it hits the court. That includes at Hilton Coliseum, where it's already lost twice this year, which makes even last-place TCU a tough out.

No. 13 Louisville

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Feb. 24 at Pittsburgh

Louisville knows its season will be ending in a few weeks, the result of the self-imposed postseason ban it announced last week in connection to alleged NCAA infractions. The Cardinals are still eligible to win the ACC regular-season title, however, and at 8-3 they're in a tie for second place and only a game behind leader North Carolina.

The Cardinals finish with three of four on the road, starting with a trip to old Big East rival Pittsburgh. That game normally wouldn't be one that would fit the trap description, but this time around, it could because it comes only a few days after Louisville hosts Duke (which it lost to by seven on Monday) and makes a trip to Miami three days later.

Coach Rick Pitino has to try to keep his players motivated for the remainder of this season, which the quest for a league title should help with. He'll need to make sure they treat every game equally and not put too much stock in how the Cardinals did last time they played Pitt.

When the teams met on Jan. 14, Louisville held the Panthers to 41 points and 28.6 percent shooting.

No. 12 Miami (Florida)

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March 5 at Virginia Tech

Miami has pulled within a game of first place in the ACC but still has four matchups with the teams it's battling for that top spot. Expect the Hurricanes to bring their A-game for those contests, unlike the C-game they put forth in their last loss at North Carolina on Jan. 30.

The 'Canes shot 39.7 percent in that game while allowing NC State to shoot 50.9 percent, and in league road games they've allowed four of five opponents to shoot at least 48.2 percent.

Virginia Tech is on Miami's remaining schedule twice, with the last time serving as the regular-season finale. If Miami is in position to win or get a piece of the league crown, it figures to be hyperfocused for this game, but otherwise it might be looking ahead to the ACC tournament a few days later.

No. 11 Oregon

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Saturday at Stanford

Six straight wins has put Oregon atop the Pac-12—a run that included ending Arizona's 49-game home win streak. The Ducks are in a great position to win their first regular-season league title since 2002, assuming they don't slip somewhere unexpected along the way.

The upcoming trip to the Bay Area schools will be a quick one, with less than 48 hours in between Thursday's game at California and the finale at Stanford. Oregon's other conference road swings this season have had two full days off in between games.

There's not much travel to be done between Berkeley and Palo Alto, but the turmoil that comes with being on the road adds an element that getting adequate rest in between games can help with. Stanford is only 4-6 in the Pac-12, but three of those wins have come at home, including against Utah.

No. 10 West Virginia

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Feb. 27 at Oklahoma State

West Virginia's proximity (or lack thereof) to the rest of the Big 12 gives it a geographical advantage when playing at home but also the opportunity for trouble to arise when hitting the road. The Mountaineers are 4-2 in league road games, though, with the losses coming to fellow first-place teams Kansas (on Tuesday) and Oklahoma (in January).

It will be how they navigate their remaining three road trips that should determine whether they have a shot at winning the regular-season title.

Two of those road games won't be hard to get up for, as West Virginia will face ranked teams Texas and Baylor. The late-February trip to Stillwater, on the other hand, is the kind that can get overlooked especially when it comes right after having hosted Oklahoma and Iowa State immediately beforehand.

No. 9 North Carolina

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Feb. 24 at North Carolina State

North Carolina has to hope it got the potential trap game out of the way by escaping from last-place Boston College on Tuesday with a comeback win. A loss there would have been the Tar Heels' third in a row after an 8-0 start to the ACC and would have been far less excusable than the previous setbacks at Louisville and Notre Dame.

There isn't another team as bad as BC left on the schedule, but there is one that a loss to would be just as detrimental.

North Carolina State is the only team the Heels will play over their last seven that currently has a losing league record. The Wolfpack are 2-9, but their wins are against Pittsburgh and Miami, and in Raleigh their league losses have been by an average of 7.3 points.

UNC will play there at the start of a two-game road trip that finishes at Virginia, doing so after it faces Duke and Miami at home. The conditions are ripe for a letdown.

No. 8 Michigan State

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March 2 at Rutgers

The overtime loss Tuesday at Purdue was Michigan State's fifth in the Big Ten, effectively ending any realistic shot at the conference title since the Spartans are four games behind Iowa in the loss column and were swept by the Hawkeyes already. It's time to move on to other goals, namely conference tournament and NCAA tourney seeding.

Neither will be helped by further losses, especially to a bad team. And there aren't many teams worse than Rutgers, which is 6-18 overall and 0-11 in the league.

The Scarlet Knights have been decimated by injuries and other roster attrition, and two weeks ago they lost by 34 at MSU on the road. Only two of their league games have been decided by 10 or fewer points, and both were at home.

Rutgers is one of MSU's two remaining road games, with the other being at Ohio State. If it's going to overlook one of those, it would be the trip to New Jersey.

No. 7 Virginia

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March 1 at Clemson

After a surprising 2-3 start to league play, two-time defending ACC regular-season champion Virginia has hit its stride and takes a seven-game win streak into Saturday's game at Duke. The Cavaliers are only a half-game out of first place but also just a game up on fifth place—a tight pack at the top of the standings that makes dropping a contest to a non-contender a recipe for disaster.

Clemson used to be in the running for the league crown until losing four of its last six—the first of which was a still-impressive seven-point setback at Virginia. The Tigers have been a tough out at home, though, with consecutive January wins against Louisville, Duke and Miami.

Virginia has won its last three ACC road games, but that included a miraculous late comeback to beat Wake Forest 72-71 on Jan. 26. The Cavs scored 19 points in the final 1:40, which is something they can't expect to do against a team like Clemson that's fighting for its first NCAA tournament bid since 2011.

No. 6 Kansas

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Feb. 15 vs. Oklahoma State

Kansas has lost only once at home in the past 107 games, with coach Bill Self sporting an absurd 203-9 record at Allen Fieldhouse. Tuesday's win over West Virginia was the Jayhawks' 37th in a row in Lawrence, Kansas, moving them into a tie with Oklahoma and the Mountaineers for first place in the Big 12.

An unprecedented 12th straight regular-season title is very much in play for Kansas, as long as it doesn't drop a game somewhere along the line that comes out of nowhere. Such as at home, where a conference opponent hasn't won since January 2011.

Oklahoma State is tied for last in the league at 2-9, but one of those wins came at home to Kansas last month. That alone should be enough to ensure Kansas doesn't fall to the Cowboys again, but it's hosting them only two days after what should be an emotional trip Saturday to Oklahoma.

No. 5 Xavier

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Feb. 20 at Georgetown

Tuesday's loss at Creighton puts Xavier a full two games behind Villanova for the top spot in the Big East, meaning even if it were to beat the Wildcats at home late this month, it would need help from someone else in the league to have a shot at the regular-season title. The Musketeers also need to avoid hurting themselves by losing to another team they should beat

Georgetown isn't going to get into the NCAA tournament unless it goes on a major run over the next few weeks, and even with that, it will probably need to win the conference tournament, but don't tell the Hoyas that. They've already beaten Xavier on the road—one of just three wins since mid-January.

Xavier's trip to D.C. comes at a point when it is apt not to get the full level of attention, too. The Musketeers will have hosted Providence three days before and could be looking ahead to the visit from Villanova four days later.

No. 4 Iowa

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Feb. 17 at Penn State

Until the Big Ten added Maryland and Rutgers before last season, Penn State was the easternmost opponent in the conference and felt like a faraway outpost for the league's West-end schools. It doesn't have that same way-out-there feel anymore, but it's still not a place you can afford to overlook, as Indiana can attest to after losing on the road to the Nittany Lions on Saturday.

Iowa has shown it can play well on the road in the Big Ten, having won at Michigan State and Purdue and losing by only six at Maryland to sit atop the standings at 10-1. And as it stands the Hawkeyes won't face another ranked team the rest of the regular season, which means if they can win Thursday at Indiana the title is theirs.

Unless they overlook a team like PSU, which they'll play in the middle of a soft stretch that includes home games against Minnesota and Wisconsin.

No. 3 Oklahoma

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Feb. 17 at Texas Tech

Oklahoma fell out of the top spot in the rankings after losing Saturday at Kansas State—a game in which it did not play its best. The same was the case for the first half of Monday's visit from Texas, where the Sooners looked hung over and lethargic before rallying behind Player of the Year front-runner Buddy Hield.

The comebacks won't always happen, especially when playing in hostile territory. Oklahoma has four road games left during the regular season, all of which are potential traps if it gets off to a slow start, but the trip to Lubbock, Texas, next week has the most potential for unexpected trouble.

That's because it comes smack dab in the middle of games against Top 10 teams and ones that Oklahoma is currently tied with for the Big 12 lead at 8-3. On Saturday it gets the rematch against Kansas, hoping to avenge last month's triple-overtime road loss, and the following Saturday the Sooners visit West Virginia.

Texas Tech doesn't look so daunting in between there, but the Red Raiders will hope otherwise. They're 4-7 in the league, but three of those wins are at home, including Wednesday's upset of Iowa State.

No. 2 Maryland

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Feb. 18 at Minnesota

Had Maryland not been going for a school-record 27th straight home win, Tuesday's game against Division II Bowie State could have been a major trap. Instead it was a 31-point victory, as expected.

But pitfalls remain for the Terrapins, who have struggled with offensive efficiency this season despite their Division I-leading 22 wins. Six of their nine worst games in terms of points per possession have come since Jan. 19, though they're still 6-1 in that span.

Maryland is a half-game out of first in the Big Ten and has the tiebreaker over Iowa but can't afford to drop one against an unexpected foe. Minnesota fits that bill, as the league's co-cellar dweller has lost 12 in a row and 15 of 16 and has little left to play for other than to be a spoiler.

No. 1 Villanova

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Feb. 17 at Temple

Ranked No. 1 for the first time in school history, Villanova has removed itself from the list of programs that have won national titles but not sat atop the polls. At the same time, the Wildcats have become the biggest target of every opponent left on their schedule.

'Nova is 42-5 in the current version of the Big East, including 11-1 this season, with a two-game lead on the field in its quest for a third straight regular-season conference title. That goal will make it hyper-alert for traps within the league, but it could also make it susceptible for slippage with one remaining nonconference game on tap.

The Wildcats are part of the Big Five schools in the Philadelphia area and thus play LaSalle, Pennsylvania, St. Joseph's and Temple every season. They've won the last two series and have won their first three games by an average of 21 points.

However, Temple will be the most dangerous foe of the group because of the timing of the game—less than a month before the regular season is over—and because the Owls are on the NCAA tournament bubble and in need of a resume-building win.

All statistics from Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.